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NHL GPP Plays: Thursday

Thursday, November 16, 2017


NHL GPP Plays by Ryan Sheppard

Thursday, November 16, 2017

 

I am filling in for Chris Lowery (Pepsi7) today and I will be providing my recommended player picks for your daily fantasy hockey lineups. The goal is to help you to the top of the leaderboards in FanDuel and DraftKings tournament play.

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Tonight’s slate offers a unique set of 12 games, in that only one team - the Boston Bruins - are playing on the tail-end of a back to back, and no teams are playing on the front-end of a back-to-back game. 23 of 24 teams are rested, and most should be rolling out their starting goaltenders. Los Angeles, Tampa Bay and Montreal are the biggest favorites on the night and are likely to be popular plays.

 

 

 

GOALTENDER


NOTE: Make sure to check the RotoGrinders Starting Goalies Page prior to game time, to confirm that the goalies listed below are starting.

 

Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning

 

Normally, taking on the Dallas Stars is a matchup that should be avoided. However, tonight the Tampa Bay Lightning are playing on home ice against a Stars team that has struggled to score this season, despite some incredible offensive talent. For tournament upside, you want to use a goaltender that will face plenty of shots with a great opportunity for the win. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 13-1-1 on the season, so even when he has an off-night he will have an opportunity to pick up the victory thanks to Tampa’s historic offense. Dallas ranks 16th in shots per game (31.9) and ranks 20th in goals per game (2.83), which should help with boosting up Vasilevskiy’s numbers tonight.

 

 

Other Top Options: Jonathan Quick (LA), Charlie Lindgren (MTL), Frederik Andersen (TOR)

 

 

 

CENTER

 

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

 

The Edmonton Oilers are home to the St. Louis Blues and the struggling Jake Allen. Despite his win total, Allen comes into this game sporting a mediocre 2.83 Goals Against Average (GAA) and .908 Save Percentage (Sv%). Edmonton has struggled to score this season, ranking 27th in the NHL averaging just 2.56 goals per game, but have been clicking over the past week - they put up eight goals against Vegas in their last game, which be the catalyst  needed to get their offence going again. McDavid has quietly put up 22 points in 18 games and sits ninth in the NHL in scoring, and leads the NHL with a 79.6 CorsiFor per 60 minutes (CF/60) at even strength (among those with at least 115 minutes played). Stacking McDavid with his line mates, Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Maroon, makes for a great tournament play as well because the trio stay together on the top power play unit, giving them even more upside.

 

 

Other Top Plays: Steven Stamkos (TB), John Tavares (NYI), Sidney Crosby (PIT), Mark Scheifele (WPG)

 

Top Mid-Tier/Value Plays: Nazem Kadri (TOR), Jonathan Drouin (MTL), William Karlsson (VGK), Adrian Kempe (LA),

 

 

 

WINGERS

 

Jeff Skinner, Carolina Hurricanes

 

Over the last few seasons, those in the analytics community have loved the Carolina Hurricanes: - the ‘Canes are a team that has great possession numbers and generates a lot of shot attempts. Unfortunately, Carolina have seemed to always struggle to put the puck in the next in spite of their shot volume, and this season is no different: they’re currently averaging 2.81 goals per game, ranking them 22nd in the NHL, and sit 23rd at 5v5 scoring. The one player that has been scoring consistently for the Hurricanes is Jeff Skinner, who has nine goals in 16 games, on 61 shots. Although they are on the road, Carolina is facing Thomas Greiss, who has really struggled this season with a 3.28 GAA and .905 Sv%. The Islanders are allowing 58.61 CorsiAgainst per 60 (CA/60) at even strength, which ranks 16th in the NHL. Skinner ranks second in the NHL, behind only Connor McDavid, with a 78.58 CF/60 among those with 115 minutes at even strength.

 

 

Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles Kings

 

Playing in California often gives the Los Angeles Kings lower ownership than they should have thanks to not knowing lineup news until after 10pm EST, and see even less on large slates. Tonight, the Kings are home to the Boston Bruins, who as mentioned are the only team playing tonight on the tail-end of a back-to-back. Boston dominated the Anaheim Ducks last night in a loss, outshooting them 41-27, so the hope is that they over-exerted themselves last night and are coming in tired this evening. Boston is likely to roll out their back-up goalie, Anton Khudobin, who has been pretty solid this season although in few games. Tyler Toffoli is playing on the second line with Tanner Pearson and Adrian Kempe, and this line has a 55.85 CorsiFor percentage (CF% is the difference between Corsi for and against represented as a percentage), which is tops for the team. Boston is very good at suppressing shots, but the expectation will be that the Kopitar line takes on the Bruins’ Bergeron line; the second line for the Kings should then get a premium matchup against the injury-riddled Bruins.

 

 

Top Plays: Nikita Kucherov (TB), Vladimir Tarasenko (STL), Leon Draisaitl (EDM), Mark Stone (OTT), Max Pacioretty (MTL), Claude Giroux (PHI),

 

Top Mid-Tier/Value Plays: Clayton Keller (ARI), Patrick Hornqvist (PIT), Gabriel Landeskog (COL), Josh Bailey (NYI), James Neal (VGK), Tanner Pearson (LA)

 

 

 

DEFENSE

 

Shea Weber, Montreal Canadiens

 

The Habs are home to the Arizona Coyotes tonight, who just set a record for not recording a regulation win in the first 20 games of the season. Arizona have been horrible this year and the goalie they expected to be their guy moving forward, Antti Raanta, has struggled. Raanta has put up a very disappointing 3.16 GAA and .905 Sv%, which is a far cry from his two years in New York where he had a 2.26 GAA and .921 Sv%. Shea Weber is definitely expensive, but he is one of the best tournament plays every single slate. He has been putting up solid offensive numbers this season, with 12 points in 18 games, which puts him on pace for his second best offensive season. Weber is attractive not just because he is putting up points, but his blocks and shots on goal also give him a very nice floor for games in which he does not get on the scoresheet. He is averaging 2.5 blocks per game and 2.83 shots per game, which technically gives him a floor of 2.6 DKpts on average, before factoring in the offence. Weber is averaging 4.2 DKpts per game this season, which is third highest on the slate among defensemen.

 

 

Other Top Plays: Alex Pietrangelo (STL), Brent Burns (SJ), Erik Karlsson (OTT), Victor Hedman (TB)

 

Top Mid-Tier/Value Plays: Morgan Reilly (TOR), Nick Leddy (NYI), Jake Muzzin (LA), Nate Schmidt (VGK)






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