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Raymond Summerlin

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Week 10 Best Bets Preview

Friday, November 9, 2018


Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin bring you their best bets every Friday of the NFL season as well as a preview of Sunday Night Football. The preview is free, but the bets can only be found in the Rotoworld Season Pass. Don’t miss out on the action.

Rich: 25-20-1 season record (last week: 2-3)
Raymond: 25-20-1 season record (last week: 1-4)


All lines taken from the 
VI Consensus at VegasInsider.com Friday morning. 

Sunday Night Football – Cowboys @ Eagles (-7) – 43-point total
Rich:
 The Cowboys are playing their fourth prime-time game on the season already, but thankfully, there’s only one more left on the schedule this season. This is an important game and has major implications for each of these teams. Dallas enters this game at 3-5 and, with a loss here, would all but be toast considering they have already lost to Washington on the season. On the other hand, the Eagles are at 4-4 and seemingly getting things in order to make another push to win the NFC East.

Dallas is in a bad spot to need a win on the road against an Eagles team coming off a bye. Last year, the Cowboys also caught the Eagles coming off the bye and lost 37-9 on their own field. Being on the road has been a problem for the Cowboys, where they are 0-4 this season.  Dallas averages 13.5 points per game on the road (30th) as opposed to 25 points per game at home (19th). This has been an ongoing issue for the Cowboys as eight consecutive Dallas games on the road have gone under the game total with an average combined point total of 31.3 points over those games. 

The Cowboys are 2-2 versus the Eagles the past two seasons since Doug Pederson arrived, but scoring points has been a major hurdle. Dallas has scored a touchdown on just 4-of-38 possessions (10.5 percent) against the Eagles with Dak Prescott under center.

If all of that couldn’t paint a bleaker picture for the Cowboys, they are also coming off a Monday Night loss. Since 2008, teams losing on Monday Night have a winning percentage of 42.5 percent (77-104) the following week while they’ve covered just 44.4 percent of the time (77-99-3).  Dogs of seven-plus points in those spots are even worse at 38.5 percent (10-16-1) against the spread. 

All in all, these are two teams heading in opposite directions. Dallas hasn’t been able to score on the road, they haven’t been able to score against this Eagles regime and they are on the back end of a negative circumstantial trend. 
Pick: Eagles -7

Ray:
 Like Rich, I am tired of seeing the Cowboys and their dysfunctional offense in prime time. They are currently 26th in per-game scoring despite their 40-point, out-of-body experience against the Jaguars, and they have scored an average of 13.5 points per game on the road this season with no more than 17 in any game. Amari Cooper did look pretty good on Monday night and can perhaps add a spark, but coaching seems to be the bigger concern.

As for the Eagles, they are allowing the fifth-fewest points per game despite their lackluster record. They have been even better at home this season, holding the Falcons, Colts, Vikings, and Panthers – all top-13 in per-game scoring this season – to just 18 points per contest. That is not really a surprise considering the Eagles allowed the fewest points per game at home last season, a full 10 points fewer than their mark on the road.

Dallas’ defense is also no slouch, suggesting this will be a low-scoring game. Unfortunately, Vegas has identified that as well, setting the total at a measly 43 points. The under might be the right play here, but taking it on a total that low is difficult in today’s NFL. This looks like a pass. 

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Raymond Summerlin is a football writer for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter at @RMSummerlin.
Email :Raymond Summerlin



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