Rich Hribar

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The NFL Week 10 Worksheet

Wednesday, November 7, 2018


Week 10 is here, and we’re really closing in on making our final push towards the fantasy postseason. Hopefully everyone is setting up a playoff run, but if you’ve been unfortunate this season in your leagues, there’s always DFS to keep the fantasy juices flowing. Week 10 is modest four-team bye week, so make sure to have all of your Texans, Broncos, Vikings and Ravens out of your lineups.

 

For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.

 

As the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is an expectations-based column over a linear start/sit forum. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player. Players that are high performers week-to-week are held to different standards than a secondary option in an offense. Every player runs into down weeks, and we’re trying to identify those moments, even for the star players you’re going to ride through thick and thin moments that don’t tally many low points during the season. That said, we’re still embracing some of the elements that will go along with a start/sit column as a byproduct of those expectations. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin's Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process.  Remember, you control your own team. If you are curious as to my personal weekly rankings, they can be found each and every week in the Season Pass section.

 

Editor's Note: If you love Fantasy Football you have to be playing on DRAFT. It's daily fantasy football snake drafts instead of salary caps. All the fun of season long drafts but with no management and they last for just one week. They take minutes to complete and there's even auction drafts! No more setting lineups or constantly worrying about pros, just draft and win! Right now DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers an exclusive FREE entry into a real money draft when you make your first deposit! Here's the link

 


All lines are taken from VegasInsider on Tuesday nights 

 

Panthers @ Steelers

 

CarolinaRank@PittsburghRank
4   Spread -4  
23.8   Implied Total 27.8  
27.5 11 Points/Gm 28.4 9
22.5 12 Points All./Gm 23.5 15
62.2 22 Plays/Gm 68.1 5
61.6 10 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.6 26
44.6% 7 Rush% 34.7% 28
55.4% 26 Pass% 65.3% 5
35.3% 6 Opp. Rush % 33.9% 2
64.7% 27 Opp. Pass % 66.1% 31

 

  • Over their current four game winning streak, the Steelers rank first in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.2 yards) and sixth in yards per carry allowed (3.8 yards).
  • They ranked 26th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.6 yards) and 20th in yards per carry allowed (4.3 yards) prior.
  • James Conner has the most fantasy points (208.5) through eight games in the Steelers franchise history.
  • Conner is the first Steelers player to have 100-yards rushing with any touchdown in four straight games since Franco Harris in 1972.
  • 27.8 percent of the yardage gained by the Panthers on the road this season has come from rushing (18th) as opposed to 45.7 percent at home (second). That is the largest home and away split in the league.
  • Christian McCaffrey has rushed 23 times for 86 yards (3.7 YPC) in three games on the road this season as opposed to 86 times for 416 yards (4.8 YPC) in five games at home.
  • McCaffrey has played 96.5 percent (500-of-518) of the Carolina offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • James Conner: He’s developing that elite baseline of yards from scrimmage per game that made Le’Veon Bell bulletproof while he’s getting far more scoring opportunities than Bell ever had.  Conner is averaging 172.3 yards from scrimmage per game over his past four games and while Carolina has only allowed 233 total yards to running backs over the past three weeks, they have hardly been pressed by the Eagles, Ravens and Buccaneers backfields.
  • Antonio Brown: He’s living a touch off finding the end zone in six straight games as he’s averaging 5.5 receptions per game over that streak, but 5.5 catches per game only feels low compared to the high bar he’s set for his career.  Carolina has been more vulnerable on the interior through the air but have allowed big weeks to Alshon Jeffery (7-88-1) and Odell Beckham (8-131-1) over the past month on the outside.
  • Ben Roethlisberger: He’s been a top-5 scorer in six of his past eight prime time games at home and has seen the least amount of heat in the NFL, being pressured on just 23.4 percent of his dropbacks. The Panthers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven games this season, tied with Oakland, Tampa Bay and San Francisco for the most in the league.
  • Cam Newton: Playing the best football of his career from a consistent efficiency standpoint, Newton has multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games for the first time in his career. He’s been a top-10 scorer in six of those games. Pittsburgh has gotten on track defensively but have only faced one QB1 over that stretch (Matt Ryan) and Newton’s rushing ability will be an added element against the blitz-heavy Steelers defense.
  • Greg Olsen: He’s been the TE6 and TE5 the past two weeks while catching all 10 of his targets for 132 yards. He’s also scored in three straight games. The Steelers have been a fantasy-friendly target for tight end play, surrendering five TE1 scoring weeks and ranking 31st in receptions allowed per game (6.6) to the position.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Christian McCaffrey: He has one of the highest floors in the league due to never coming off the field and now he’s found the end zone four times over his past two games after scoring once through six weeks. McCaffrey has had funky road splits on the ground while the most yards from the scrimmage the Steelers have allowed in a game to a running back is 84 yards to Joe Mixon in Week 6.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster: He’s hit 100-yards in just one of his past five games after doing so in each of his first four games to open the season. The Carolina defense is 26th in fantasy production in the league to wideouts from the slot per game this season, but was also just hammered by Adam Humphries for 8-82-2 a week ago to keep the doors open for a potentially strong game.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Devin Funchess: We are back into touchdown-or-bust mode with Funchess now that the Panthers have incorporated more options into their usage tree. Funchess has just eight targets over the past two weeks and hasn’t reached 80-yards receiving in a game this season.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Vance McDonald: He just hasn’t established himself as a weekly option as he’s had just two top-12 weeks through seven games. He hasn’t even sniffed mid-TE2 status for the most part, finishing as the TE19 or lower in five of those games. But in a game where we’re interested in Ben, we’re nibbling at a shallow position. McDonald still ran 32 routes last week compared to 15 for Jesse James. The Panthers have allowed seven top-12 scoring tight ends since Week 1 while allowing a league-high 6.9 receptions per game and a league-high seven touchdowns to the position.
  • D.J. Moore: He’s still only a swing when the matchups line up until his usage becomes consistent. The two targets versus a Buccaneers defense isn’t going to earn us much trust, but he still had his playing time stay on the rise as he was on the field for 85.5 percent of the offensive snaps. He also does have a rushing attempt in 6-of-8 games for teams in a bind.

 

Washington @ Buccaneers

 

WashingtonRank@Tampa BayRank
2.5   Spread -2.5  
24.5   Implied Total 27.0  
20.0 25 Points/Gm 28.6 7
21.5 9 Points All./Gm 34.4 32
64.4 14 Plays/Gm 68.5 4
61.5 8 Opp. Plays/Gm 62.9 15
43.7% 11 Rush% 34.9% 27
56.3% 22 Pass% 65.2% 6
34.6% 4 Opp. Rush % 38.6% 12
65.5% 29 Opp. Pass % 61.4% 21

 

  • Tampa Bay is first in the league in non-passing fantasy points generated per game on offense (94.4) and last in the league in those points allowed per game (95.3).
  • The average Buccaneers game at home features 51.3 total points scored (12th) as opposed to 70.0 combined points per game on the road, the most in the league.
  • The Buccaneers have the worst turnover differential in the league (-15), matching their worst differential in franchise history through eight games set in 1988.
  • Buccaneers wide receivers lead the league with 272 receiving yards per game as a unit. Washington wide receivers rank last with 106 yards per game.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick: There’s some concern here that Washington won’t be able to do their part offensively like all the Bucs opponents have, but the body of work for QB Bucs has been too strong to ignore. In all six games their quarterback has finished a game, he’s been a top-10 scorer and Washington has allowed a top-12 scorer or a 300-yard passer in each of their past six games.
  • O.J. Howard: Howard has an overall volume issue that hasn’t popped his fantasy bubble yet as he’s averaging just 5.3 targets per game in his full games, but he still has at least 50-yards receiving in all of those seven full games since he has splash-play upside.  He leads all tight ends with 35 percent of his targets coming on targets 15-yards or further downfield and his 11.8 yards per target leads all tight ends with 25 or more targets on the season.
  • Mike Evans: After catching 27-of-37 targets from Fitzpatrick prior to last week, Evans and Fitz were able to connect on just 1-of-10 looks with just two of those deemed as catchable targets. That’s a reminder that Evans is still prone to floor play due to quarterback performance, but his volume isn’t going anywhere. Washington has been smashed by lead receivers of late, allowing Julio Jones (7-121-1), Odell Beckham (8-136-0) and Devin Funchess (5-74-1) to post big lines in three of their past four games surrounding a matchup versus the Cowboys over that span.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • DeSean Jackson: He has just 11 catches on 26 targets over his past four games after catching 17-of-22 looks to begin the season. For the type of targets he receives, that early efficiency was never going to stick, but Washington isn’t a bad team to chase an all-or-nothing option against. Washington has allowed eight touchdown receptions of 20 or more yards on the season, tied for the second-most in the league.
  • Alex Smith: The Buccaneers defense has yet to fail us thus far, but Smith has not shown the requisite ceiling to fully trust on matchup alone. And now his offensive line is ravaged by injuries. There’s room for Smith to provide a solid stopgap as a streamer, but his highest week on the ceiling is just QB11 and has thrown one or fewer touchdowns in 6-of-8 games on the season.
  • Jordan Reed: He’s been the Alex Smith of tight ends this season. Reed has been the average TE17 per week this season and is averaging just 4.1 receptions for 42.5 yards per game. Washington keeps losing bodies offensively all over and he’s the one oddly still standing, while running into as good of a matchup as he’ll have all season. The Buccaneers have allowed a TE1 in every game but one this season and are allowing league-high 77.3 yards per game to the position.
  • Adrian Peterson: We never took the bait on Peterson last week because you’re always forced to nail game script with him. In the three Washington losses, Peterson has been the RB38, RB44 and the RB37, averaging just 10.7 touches per game in those weeks as opposed to 23.2 touches per game in their five wins. That said, he’s still a player that you’re always going to consider as an RB2 in this fantasy climate. Tampa Bay has allowed seven rushing touchdowns to backs over the past four weeks and are allowing a rushing touchdown once every 14.3 carries to opposing running backs, the worst rate in the league.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Chris Godwin: He’s just too far behind the other option here as he’s averaging just 3.8 catches per game and has cleared 60 yards in a game just once. All you can do is hope for a touchdown.
  • Peyton Barber: His only positive games are when he’s fallen into the end zone and now he’s losing passing opportunities with Jacquizz Rodgers running 40 pass routes to Barber’s 34 over the past two weeks.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Adam Humphries: I owe Humphries a formal apology because I just didn’t believe he’d stick as a viable fantasy commodity given the wealth of riches Tampa Bay has in the passing game and the change back to Fitzpatrick at quarterback. But he has been getting fed opportunity that is tough to ignore. Since the Bucs Week 5 bye, Humphries is third for all wide receivers in route run (41.3 per game) and is tied for 11th in targets (31) and receptions (22) over that span.  There’s still a limited ceiling when he fails to score a touchdown, but he’s just been on the field far more than either Jackson or Godwin by a significant amount in a passing offense that is providing a viable base of fantasy production.
  • Josh Doctson: He has at least six targets four of his past six games and leads the team in air yards over the past three weeks by a substantial amount. He runs into a Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed the most receptions per game (7.6) to opposing lead wideouts, but Doctson is not a typical lead option and has yet to produce more than 49 yards in any game this season.
  • Maurice Harris: He has eight and 12 targets in his two starts this season and turned 12 targets into 10 catches against an Atlanta team that has struggled inside all season. If Jamison Crowder is still inactive, Harris is set up with another potential high-volume spot against a defense that is 30th in receptions allowed to opposing receivers.
  • Kapri Bibbs: Chris Thompson can’t be counted on at this stage and if he’s out once again, Bibbs will float around the bottom of the FLEX pool once again for those in dire straits. Bibbs has been the RB15 and the RB23 over the past two games with Thompson inactive, but that is largely on the strength of scoring in each game as he has totaled just 10 touches for 91 yards in those games.

 

 

Cardinals @ Chiefs

 

ArizonaRank@Kansas CityRank
16.5   Spread -16.5  
16.8   Implied Total 33.5  
13.8 31 Points/Gm 36.3 1
24.9 18 Points All./Gm 25.1 20
54.0 32 Plays/Gm 61.4 25
69.1 30 Opp. Plays/Gm 69.0 29
37.3% 21 Rush% 40.5% 16
62.7% 12 Pass% 59.5% 17
48.5% 31 Opp. Rush % 34.6% 5
51.5% 2 Opp. Pass % 65.4% 28

 

  • The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in five consecutive games, matching a franchise record set in 2004.
  • Kansas City is the only team that averages at least four offensive touchdowns per game at home (4.0) and on the road (4.4) this season.
  • Patrick Mahomes is the fifth quarterback ever to thrown for 300-yards or more in eight straight games. Drew Brees (twice) holds the record with nine consecutive 300-yard passing games.
  • Mahomes is the also just the fifth quarterback ever to pass for 300-yards and three or more touchdowns in four straight games, one behind the record of five set by Steve Young in 1998.
  • 57.1 percent (12-of-21) of the offensive touchdowns allowed by the Cardinals have come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
  • Kareem Hunt's 24 touchdowns are the most ever by any Chiefs player over the first 25 games of a player's career.
  • Arizona has scored on just 17.4 percent of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
  • The Cardinals have scored on 14.3 percent (5-of-35) of their drives on the road, the lowest rate in the league.

 

Trust (spike starting production)

 

  • Patrick Mahomes: We’re almost to the point where we’re starting to take him for granted to a degree since he plays a position with so many available options each week. Mahomes has now hit as a top-6 scorer in four straight games and has set a new career-high in passing yardage in three of his past four games. Arizona is tied in allowing a league-low nine touchdown passes on the season because teams are running the ball at will on them, but Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are the unit that has dictated matchups.
  • Kareem Hunt: He’s averaging 137 yards from scrimmage over the past six weeks with 10 touchdowns over that span. Arizona is facing 33.9 touches per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league and are allowing 175.5 total yards per game to backfields, 30th in the league and 20.7 rushing points per game to the position, the most in the league.
  • Travis Kelce: He’s been the TE4 or higher in six of his past seven games and leads the position with 82.3 yards per game. To tack on, he’s on pace to smash his career-high of eight touchdowns scored as he already has six on the season.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Tyreek Hill: Arizona has consistently been good on the boundary and bludgeoned on the interior in the passing game. Hill is always a play away from hitting and Arizona allowed a 55-yard catch and run touchdown to speedster Marquise Goodwin in their last game. But Hill also has wonky home/road splits as he’s averaging just 62.5 yards per game receiving at home this season as opposed to 104.8 per game on the road.
  • Sammy Watkins: He’s running 37.9 percent of his routes in the slot, which gives him more opportunity to hit a play against the soft Arizona interior defense and we’re just not fading any part of this concentrate offense. 65.9 percent of the Kansas City targets go to either Kelce, Hill or Watkins, which is why Watkins has been a WR3 or better in six of his eight full games this season. If Watkins is unable to play do to an ankle injury, Chris Conley will be in play as a volatile WR4 option.
  • David Johnson: He’s a massive road dog but has averaged 20.4 touches per game in Rosen’s five starts with a low of 17. That many touches versus a Chiefs defense is something we’re always interested in as the Chiefs are allowing a league-high 178.8 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields.
  • Larry Fitzgerald: Over his early-season hamstring injury, Fitz has tallied 25.5 percent of the team targets over his past three games and has scored in each of the past two. The Chiefs have been much stouter versus the pass and has limited slot receivers Jarvis Landry (6-50), Emmanuel Sanders (4-57), Tyler Boyd (3-27) over the past three weeks, but it’s hard to leave Fitzgerald out of the top-30 options this week given his volume and the Cardinals point-chasing here.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Josh Rosen: He’s had one game higher than QB23 with a high-scoring week of QB14. The Chiefs have been a much better pass defense at home, allowing six touchdowns to six interceptions in Arrowhead.

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Christian Kirk: He has been the average WR38 in Rosen’s five starts with 12.2 points per game but is still only a fringe option, averaging just 5.8 targets per game over that span.
  • Spencer Ware: Nailing game script to go completely in a lopsided direction is always thin ice, so Ware is only on the table for the most desperate to plug a hole this week. He’s had 89 and 81 total yards in two of his past three games and we’ve got a huge home favorite here that has been battered by the run and game script as stated when discussing Hunt above.

 

Bills @ Jets

 

BuffaloRank@NY JetsRank
7.5   Spread -7.5  
14.8   Implied Total 22.3  
10.7 32 Points/Gm 22.0 22
26.8 26 Points All./Gm 23.7 17
62.3 21 Plays/Gm 61.2 26
61.8 11 Opp. Plays/Gm 66.2 27
42.3% 15 Rush% 43.7% 10
57.8% 18 Pass% 56.3% 23
42.1% 22 Opp. Rush % 39.9% 16
57.9% 11 Opp. Pass % 60.1% 17

 

  • The Jets rank 28th in yards per play offensively (5.1) while the Bills rank 32nd (4.0).
  • The eight touchdowns by the Bills are their fewest through nine games in franchise history.
  • The three passing touchdowns by the Bills are the fewest through nine games of a season since the 2009 Browns (three) and 2009 Raiders (two).
  • Nathan Peterman averages just 6.8 yards per completion, the fewest in the league. League average is 11.6 yards per completion while both Derek Anderson and Josh Allen are at 11.1 yards per completion on the season.
  • Peterman's 4.2 yards per pass attempt are the fourth-fewest for a quarterback in NFL history through eight games played (minimum of 100 pass attempts).
  • 52.8 percent (56-of-106) of the Bills possessions have come with them trailing by double-digit points, the highest rate in the league. 
  • The Jets have averaged just 248.3 total yards per game over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
  • After rushing for 323 yards in their Week 5 game against the Broncos, the Jets have rushed for 308 yards total over their four games since.
  • The Jets have run 16 plays inside of the opponent's 10-yard line this season, the fewest in the league.

 

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)

 

  • Isaiah Crowell: Where will Crowell’s 200-yard rushing game in Week 5 rank at the end of the season in most random events from the 2018 season? He’s carried 50 times for 143 yards over the past four games since that game. He still led the backfield with 14 touches last week and is a home favorite here, so the FLEX lights are still on despite those lackluster results. This game is Slappers only, but the Bills have allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games.

 

Bust (underperformance)

 

  • Josh McCown: Filling in for Sam Darnold, McCown threw for 187 and 140 yards in two games versus the Bills a year ago, while the Bills pass defense has actually shown up this season in terrible circumstances. Buffalo has allowed just one top-12 scorer over their past six games and just held Tom Brady to QB20 and Mitchell Trubisky to QB19 over the past two weeks.
  • Elijah McGuire: He has an inside track on the “Bilal Powell role” as he out-snapped Crowell 36-23 last week but was out-touched by Crowell 14-10.  There’s squeeze for him to be a FLEX option, but there’s low upside here in a game with the Jets favored and Crowell still in line to get scoring opportunities.
  • Nathan Peterman: I have to mention every quarterback in some capacity here. Objective complete.
  • LeSean McCoy: On the line here as he’s still worth a look as an RB3 or “break glass” RB2 for those vacant at the running back position. He has at least 14 touches or more in each of his past four complete games played, but he has rushed 22 times for 23 yards the past two weeks. He’s now been an RB2 or better just twice on the season but has been an RB3 or better in 6-of-7 complete games. There’s just no ceiling here with Peterman playing as McCoy has 22 touches for 50 yards in Peterman’s two starts this season.
  • All WRs: The Jets haven’t had a wideout finish higher than WR46 over the past three weeks and out of their five WR3 or better games, only Quincy Enunwa has done it twice. He had just four targets in his first game back. Buffalo has had a high WR finish of WR36 on the season. Robby Anderson had rapport with McCown last season over a six-game stretch, but will draw the worst matchup on the outside. In two games versus Buffalo with McCown a year ago, Anderson caught eight total passes for 70 yards, but did find the end zone once. 

 

If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)

 

  • Chris Herndon: He has double-digit points in three of his past four games and continues to see more passing game opportunity as he is coming off a season-high 26 routes run a week ago. Game script may not force the Jets to chase points like they have the past three weeks, but Herndon is a high-end TE2 this week for those in need of filling the position while the Bills have allowed a short-passing score to an opposing tight end in two of their past three games.

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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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