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Connor Allen

Weekend Weather

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Weather: Week 5 Forecasts

Saturday, October 6, 2018


As the season goes on the weather will become progressively worse each week. Snow will become a weekly fixture in games played in the Northeast and Midwest, potentially significantly impacting games and players’ fantasy values. We aren’t there yet but in a couple of weeks, it could be a different story. When setting your lineups this week be sure to check out Evan Silva’s Matchup Column, Rich Hribar’s Worksheet and Pat Daugherty’s Rankings to maximize your chances of winning. Onto the weather.

 

 

Wet Weather Warning


Jacksonville at Kansas City (1:00 PM ET): The Chiefs will have their hardest test to date against the Jaguars’ elite defense. A stereotypical best offense vs. best defense game, this will be a great game to watch. Weather may be a factor though with a 90 percent chance of rain on Sunday. It looks to be light but could go throughout the entire game. As the grass becomes more slippery it could impact both the offenses and defenses ability to plant and change direction. Neither side should gain a significant edge from this. If the rain ends up being really bad teams may lean on the running game, which normally wouldn’t be an issue for the Jaguars but they are without Leonard Fournette. Without Fournette the Jaguars passed 13% more last season, a massive identity change. At the moment the rain doesn’t look to be too bad, but if it turns into a downpour take caution with firing up Jaguars pass-catchers and popular-streamer Blake Bortles. Chiefs passing options should be started regardless.

 

 

Wind Worries


Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 PM ET): Rookie QB Josh Rosen would have been the talk of the week if his pass-catchers had been able to reel in multiple deep drops. He now squares off against a very burnable San Francisco secondary and QB C.J. Beathard.  This game could see wind speeds of 15 MPH and gusts even higher, leaving some cause for concern. 15 MPH is the threshold when wind speed starts to affect the game and quarterbacks’ Yards Per Attempt decreases. With wind speeds right on the cusp of this threshold, I’m taking more of a wait-and-see approach with fantasy players from this game. There aren’t too many fantasy-relevant players anyways, but I certainly would still start TE George Kittle, RB Matt Breida, and RB David Johnson. For deeper leagues and any other players check on how the wind is faring closer to game time.

 

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Worry-Free Weather


Tennessee at Buffalo (1:00 PM ET): After a riveting Week 2 upset of the Minnesota Vikings, the Bills came back to earth in Week 3 with a 22-0 loss to Green Bay.  They now host the Titans in what should be fairly mild weather. 61 degree temperatures with overcast skies and a mild 4 MPH breeze is expected. There could be some rain in the morning but nothing that should impact the game.

 

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (1:00 PM ET): This game features the highest game O/U of the week at 57 points. Both teams have been horrendous on defense and strong on offense. Weather won’t be a factor in this one with 79 degree temperatures, clear skies, and 5MPH winds on the docket.

 

Denver at NY Jets (1:00 PM ET): The Broncos nearly pulled off the upset against Patrick ‘ferrari’ Mahomes but Case Keenum missed an open Demaryius Thomas for what could have been the game-winner. Both teams will enjoy mild weather with 76 degree temperatures, mostly cloudy skies, and 7 MPH winds expected. Start all fantasy options as normal.

 

Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 PM ET): Baker Mayfield has been nothing but electric so far in the NFL but may have a difficult time this week against one of the league’s top defenses who get an important member of their secondary back (Jimmy Smith). Weather won’t be a factor in this divisional meeting with 75 degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies and 4MPH winds in the forecast.

 

NY Giants at Carolina (1:00 PM ET): Coming off the bye, the Panthers will look to improve their 2-1 record against the 1-3 Giants. This is one of the hotter games of the week with 82 degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and 3 MPH winds are expected. All fantasy options can be started as usual.

 

Miami at Cincinnati (1:00 PM ET): The red-hot Bengals have averaged over 30 points per game this season and have done a full 180-degree flip from last season’s offensive woes. They will look to continue their high-scoring against the 3-1 Dolphins. While Miami’s record suggests they are good, they’re also coming off a 38-0 spanking by the Patriots. Weather won’t make an impact on this game with 83 degree temperatures, 4 MPH winds and clear skies in the forecast. Fire up all fantasy options you would normally in this game.

 

Oakland at LA Chargers (4:05 PM ET):  A supposed “home game” for the Chargers, the Raiders will likely have more fans in the stands then them. With both defenses unable to stop anyone and both offenses showing signs of life, this could be another fun game on the Week 5 slate. Both teams will enjoy 74 degree temperatures with clear skies but may run into trouble if wind speeds end up closer to 15 MPH instead of the projected 10MPH. Start all fantasy options as usual.

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia (4:25 PM ET): Last year’s NFC championship game looks a lot different this time around with the Vikings defense struggling and Carson Wentz back for the Eagles. Weather won’t be a factor in this one with 83 degree temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and 7MPH winds expected. Start all fantasy options you normally would.

 

LA Rams at Seattle (4:25 PM ET): The Rams have been a scoring machine to start the year with 33 or more points in every game. They now travel to the once-daunting Century Link Field to take on the Seahawks.  They will play in pretty standard Pacific Northwest weather with 51 degree temperatures, overcast skies, a light rain, and some mild wind. Nothing to be worried about here.

 

 

Home Teams are Dome Teams


Only three games will be played in a dome this week including the NFC North matchup between the Packers and Lions.

 

Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 PM ET)


Dallas at Houston (8:20 PM ET)


Washington at New Orleans (8:15 PM ET, Monday)

 

Bye Week: Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers



You can find Connor on Twitter @ConnorAllenNFL.
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