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Evan Silva

Tiers of Heaven

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Silva: 2018 Quarterback Tiers

Sunday, August 5, 2018


Tier One: Surefire Difference Makers

Aaron Rodgers (QB1) > Tom Brady (QB2) > Cam Newton (QB3) > Deshaun Watson (QB4)

Overview: Tier-one signal callers are rare difference makers at fantasy’s most-replaceable position. Waiting for the double-digit rounds is optimal in start-one-quarterback leagues, but members of this elite group warrant single-digit reaches as high-floor, high-ceiling scorers. Rodgers has finished as a top-two passer in seven of the last eight seasons in which he’s played at least 15 games and added red-zone maven Jimmy Graham in free agency. Over his last 16 starts, Rodgers has an otherworldly 40:8 TD-to-INT ratio. Brady has been a top-four QB in five of his last seven full years. Cam has been a top-four quarterback in 5-of-7 NFL seasons, and new OC Norv Turner sounds open to using Newton’s rushing skills aggressively. Watson is due for some regression, but his ceiling is undeniable. He outscored the quarterback field by an unthinkable six fantasy points per game during six rookie starts despite barely even practicing with his supporting cast. All reports on Watson’s ACL recovery have been glowing.

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Tier Two: Potential Difference Makers

Russell Wilson (QB5) > Drew Brees (QB6) > Carson Wentz (QB7) > Jimmy Garoppolo (QB8)

Overview: Tier-two quarterbacks have flashed difference-making upside but have more question marks than first-tier passers. After logging a career-worst 3.8% touchdown rate in 2016, Wilson caught the positive end of variance for a league-best 34 TD passes in 2017. Wilson accounted for 37 of Seattle’s 38 offensive touchdowns, a remarkable feat but one likely to regress toward the mean. Doug Baldwin’s knee injury was my deciding factor to drop Wilson out of tier one. Red-zone machine Jimmy Graham’s exit doesn’t help. Brees’ 2017 was perceived as disappointing, but he led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.1) and set a league record for completion rate (72.0%). Likewise, Brees’ 2017 TD rate of 4.3% should regress toward the mean after his touchdown rate was 5.8% over the previous six years. Wentz is another touchdown rate wizard; his 7.5% clip led the league among qualified passers, but Wentz is coming off two torn knee ligaments and is bound for some efficiency loss. Garoppolo was a magician down the stretch, needing only a month to master Kyle Shanahan’s system and engineer a 5-0 finish with a 67.4% completion rate at 8.8 yards per attempt with brittle Olympian Marquise Goodwin and FB Kyle Juszczyk as his top-two pass catchers. Even as a late-round quarterback devotee, I'm drafting Jimmy G in the early double-digit rounds.

Read the rest of Silva's QB Tiers in the 2018 Rotoworld Draft Guide.

 

Editor's Note: The 2018 Rotoworld Draft Guide provides more than 500 extensive player profiles, tiers, projections, Evan Silva’s Sleepers and Busts and much more. Get the NFL Draft Guide now.



Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Evan Silva



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