Evan Silva

Matchups

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Silva's Week 14 Matchups

Sunday, December 10, 2017


1:00 PM ET Games

Indianapolis @ Buffalo
Team Totals: NA

After flashing ample early- and mid-season promise, Jacoby Brissett has regressed by gripping the ball far too long in the pocket behind pass protection he clearly does not trust. Per PFF, only scrambling dual threats Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson take longer to throw than Brissett’s 2.92-second average, third most among 28 qualified quarterbacks. With at least three sacks taken in six straight starts, Brissett has devolved into a weekly target for streamer D/STs. He is a low-end two-quarterback-league play against a Bills defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in just 2-of-12 games. … It's far from sexy, but Frank Gore is the top fantasy play on Indy’s side against a pushover Bills run defense that has allowed an NFL-high 15 rushing TDs and the league’s fifth-most rushing yards (1,305) to running backs. Buffalo has given up 145-plus rushing yards in four of its last five games. Gore has 18-plus touches in four of the past five weeks and makes for an underrated RB2/flex play based on workload and matchup. Mistake-prone Marlon Mack has faded from relevance with single-digit touches in four straight games.

Brissett’s post-bye target distribution: T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, and Donte Moncrief 11; Chester Rogers 10; Gore 5; Mack 4; Josh Ferguson 3. … Playing at the chilly Ralph doesn’t seem like an ideal environment for Hilton’s skill set, but T.Y. did beat Jalen Ramsey for the only touchdown Ramsey has allowed this entire season in Week 13, and Sunday’s matchup is softer. Buffalo has allowed the NFL’s eighth-most receptions to wide receivers (147). … Doyle remains the safest bet in Indy’s pass-catcher corps against a Bills defense allowing the NFL’s fourth-most catches (66) and yards (771) to tight ends. Doyle has seven-plus targets in six of Brissett’s last eight starts and shouldn’t have to block much due to Buffalo’s sluggish pass rush, which ranks 28th in quarterback hits (56) and 31st in sacks (20). … With Moncrief (ankle) sidelined, Rogers will rise to No. 2 wideout duties in an above-average draw and is a WR4/flex sleeper with high-efficiency to-date metrics as the Colts’ No. 3 receiver. Rogers' 82% catch rate leads the team.

With Tyrod Taylor (knee) banged up, the Bills figure to use this as an opportunity to give coaches pet Nathan Peterman another shot following his disastrous five-pick first half in Week 11 at the Chargers. This is a full-fade spot for all Bills pass catchers. I would expect Peterman to play better this week than he did in Los Angeles, but there are no data-backed reasons to believe in the fifth-round rookie or his surrounding parts. … If the Bills are smart – open to debate – they will ride LeSean McCoy hard to limit what goes on previously-overmatched Peterman’s plate. It should be noted that Indy’s run defense has stiffened lately, holding enemy running backs to a 76/245/3.22/2 rushing line in their last three games. The Colts have still given up the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points and third-most receiving yards (622) to the position this season.

Score Prediction: Bills 20, Colts 17

Editor's Note: Build around these 5 players for your Week 14 lineups. Find out who here!

 

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Team Totals: Lions 23.5, Buccaneers 20.5

After last week’s predictable dud in Baltimore, Matthew Stafford visits Tampa for a far-softer matchup with the Bucs, who have buoyed fantasy floors by yielding top-16 results to nine of their last 11 signal callers faced. Stafford has recorded top-ten fantasy finishes in five of his last seven games, mainly struggling when pressured. The Bucs don’t bring pressure, ranking dead last in sacks (17) and 24th in quarterback hits (61). This is a prime rebound spot for Stafford. … Even against a weak Bucs run defense, Detroit’s backfield situation has established itself as a situation to avoid whenever Ameer Abdullah (neck) plays, and he looks on track to return this week. Abdullah has finished below 15 touches in six of his last seven games with fewer than 60 yards from scrimmage in seven straight. When Abdullah has been healthy and active, Theo Riddick averages 5.0 touches per game. Let’s look elsewhere for sleepers.



Stafford’s target distribution since Detroit’s Week 7 bye: Marvin Jones 48; Golden Tate 46; Eric Ebron 28; Riddick and T.J. Jones 18; Abdullah and Kenny Golladay 13; Darren Fells 8. … Another reason to like Stafford is his favorable slew of pass-catcher matchups. First up is Tate, who busted his slump with an eight-catch outing in last week’s loss to Baltimore and now takes on a Bucs secondary that has been flamed by slot men Larry Fitzgerald (10/138/1), Adam Thielen (5/98/0), Jarvis Landry (6/95/1), Danny Amendola (8/77/0), Kendall Wright (7/69/0), and Mohamed Sanu (8/64/0). Tate runs 80% of his routes inside. … Perimeter receivers have also hurt the Bucs badly, namely Julio Jones (12/253/2), Kenny Stills (7/180/1), and Robby Anderson (4/85/1) in the last month. Marvin runs a team-high 88% of his routes outside and has cleared 85 yards in six of his last seven games, unheard-of consistency from a wideout. Tampa has given up the NFL’s fourth-most touchdowns to receivers (13) and will be without CB Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring) and SS T.J. Ward (concussion). … The plus draw makes Golladay a sleeper with 40-plus yards in four straight games. Golladay’s main obstacle is volume: his target counts in that four-week stretch are 3 > 3 > 4 > 3. He’s a boom-bust WR4/flex. … Tampa Bay’s stingy tight-end defense has played a role in its wide-receiver vulnerability; the Bucs have allowed the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. With zero 60-yard games all year, Ebron is a mere touchdown-or-bust streamer. For his part, Ebron hasn’t dropped a pass since Week 8.

After a three-game layoff due to ongoing arm troubles, Jameis Winston shook off the Week 13 rust in an uneven but still fantasy-useful performance at Green Bay, absorbing seven sacks and mainly settling for checkdowns but still escaping with last week’s QB9 finish. Back home, Winston’s Week 14 draw is more favorable against a sputtering Lions defense that has allowed six of its last eight quarterbacks faced to post top-12 results, including three top-seven finishes to DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, and Joe Flacco in the last month. Winston is never a safe-floor play, but the plus draw gives him streamer/DFS upside. … I believe Peyton Barber’s Week 13 rushing effort warrants more playing time, but Doug Martin (concussion) is back and appears likely to reenter the rotation, if not resume lead-back duties outright. Unfortunately, the Bucs’ muddy backfield looks again like a situation to avoid.


Winston’s Week 13 target distribution: Mike Evans and Cameron Brate 6; Barber and Adam Humphries 4; DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin 3; Charles Sims and O.J. Howard 2. … The Bucs’ top pass-catcher matchup goes to Brate against a Lions defense allowing the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends, including 5/36/1 (Ravens TEs) last week, 4/63/2 (Kyle Rudolph) in Week 12, 6/64/1 (Bears TEs) in Week 11, and 4/70/0 (Seth DeValve) in Week 10. Brate has scored a touchdown and/or cleared 60 yards in six of Winston’s last seven starts. Brate’s risk is that his playing time is way down – he’s logged fewer than half of the Bucs’ offensive snaps in three of the last four weeks – and Howard ran more routes than Brate in each of the last two games. … Evans is a bet-on-talent and fade-matchup play against Lions shadow cornerback Darius Slay. … The Lions use a No. 2 corner rotation of Nevin Lawson and D.J. Hayden, mainly because neither has locked down the full-time job. Jackson has reverted to weekly volatility in terms of usage and production, but the plus draw gives him boom-bust WR3/flex appeal.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Buccaneers 24

Oakland @ Kansas City
Team Totals: Chiefs 25.5, Raiders 21.5

After shutting up his detractors with last week’s overall QB1 finish in a shootout loss to the Jets, Alex Smith enters an even more-favorable spot versus Oakland, which has allowed an NFL-high 108.2 passer rating and top-ten fantasy results to four of its last six quarterbacks faced, exceptions being Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch/Trevor Siemian. Kansas City’s lousy defense can force Smith to do more than the Chiefs might like by creating back-and-forth scoring scenarios. At 47.0 points, Raiders-Chiefs has a top-five game total on the Week 14 slate. … Charcandrick West returns after missing Week 13 for personal reasons and should retake third-down and two-minute duties from Kareem Hunt, whose snap rate (87%) and routes run (29) were both season highs with West shelved against the Jets. Hunt’s Week 14 matchup is about as good as it gets, but his role has diminished in the offense with 13 touches or fewer in three of the last four games. Hunt remains a quality RB2 play as a home favorite facing the Raiders.

Smith’s Weeks 6-13 target distribution: Travis Kelce 57; Tyreek Hill 52; Hunt 30; Demarcus Robinson 26; Albert Wilson 14. … Simply too shifty and fast for Oakland’s plus-sized, heavy-legged corners, Hill burned the Raiders for receiving lines of 6/125/1 and 6/66/1 in these clubs’ last two meetings. With six-plus touches in six of his last seven games, Hill is being proactively funneled opportunities, creating worrisome situations for defenses. He ranks 11th among NFL wide receivers in catches (60) and sixth in yards (911). … Kelce enters Week 14 with 90-plus yards and/or a touchdown in seven of his last ten games to face a Raiders defense that has been rocked by Evan Engram (7/99/1), Hunter Henry (5/90/0), Julius Thomas (6/84/1), Delanie Walker (7/76/0), AJ Derby (4/75/1), Vernon Davis (5/58/1), and Kelce himself (4/33/1). With Rob Gronkowski suspended, Kelce is this week’s No. 1 tight end play.

Arguably this year’s most disappointing quarterback in both real life and fantasy, Derek Carr travels to Arrowhead with zero top-12 fantasy scores since Week 7 and results of QB14 or worse in eight of his last nine games. Although Kansas City’s defense has been exposed as among the league’s worst, the Chiefs have continued to limit offensive production in home games, where they’ve held each of their last 11 opponents to 20 points or fewer. All of Kansas City’s high-scoring games allowed have come on the road. Carr has been a two-quarterback-league play only all year and remains that in Week 14. … Although he missed some early-game snaps with a muscle strain suffered on his first-drive 50-yard touchdown run, Marshawn Lynch operated as Oakland’s offensive focal point for the second straight game in last week’s win over the Giants. Lynch has touch counts of 29 and 19 in the last two weeks with increased passing-game involvement, and draws a cupcake on-paper matchup with the Chiefs, who have allowed enemy rushing-yardage/touchdown totals of 157/3 (Jets), 104/0 (Bills), 112/1 (Giants), and 131/2 (Cowboys) in their last four games. On the season, only four teams have allowed more rushing yards to running backs than Kansas City (1,274), and only four teams have yielded more rushing scores (10) to the position.

So desperate at cornerback they signed Darrelle Revis off the street, the Chiefs are getting hammered by wide receivers lately, namely Jermaine Kearse (9/157/0), Terrance Williams (9/141/0), Robby Anderson (8/107/0), Dez Bryant (6/73/0), Zay Jones (3/33/1), and Cole Beasley (4/24/2) in the last month. On the year, Kansas City has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most 20-plus-yard completions (42) and a league-high 12 pass plays of 40-plus yards. With Amari Cooper (ankle) looking questionable at best, Michael Crabtree is in a prime spot coming off his one-game ban. It can’t hurt that the Chiefs will be without their top corner after suspending LCB Marcus Peters on Wednesday. … The Raiders’ three-receiver set will be rounded out by slot man Seth Roberts and either Cordarrelle Patterson or Johnny Holton. With both Cooper and Crabtree on the Week 13 shelf, Holton led the unit in targets (7), Roberts in catches (5), and Patterson in yards (97). They are all matchup-driven dart-throw WR4/flex options. … Out-produced by No. 2 TE Clive Walford (4/57/0), Jared Cook was one of Week 13’s biggest flops with nine yards on five targets, including his second drop in as many weeks. Cook has been held below 40 yards in three straight games. He did shred this same Chiefs defense for 6/107/0 on seven targets in Week 7, but has to be downgraded to a boom-bust streamer due to his utter lack of recent production. The matchup remains quite favorable; Kansas City allows the NFL’s tenth-most yards (658) to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Raiders 20

 

DFS Players: Raiders at Chiefs is the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week. Some of RotoGrinders' top NFL minds break down this game from every angle and help you set winning DFS lineups.




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Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Evan Silva



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