Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 13: AFC Targets & Touches

Tuesday, December 5, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless of whether they were active or on a bye. The most recent target/touch will be on the right side. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five are more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. Here is a link to the NFC Targets column.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: This data will stick to mainly fantasy-relevant players.  

 

Baltimore Ravens

 

Targets: Jeremy Maclin (5, 9, 0, 5, 5, 8), Benjamin Watson (4, 10, 0, 1, 3, 5), Mike Wallace (0, 7, 0, 4, 11, 8), Javorius Allen (3, 8, 0, 1, 1, 1), Alex Collins (2, 1, 0, 7, 2, 2), Danny Woodhead (0, 0, 0, 6, 4, 2)


Carries: Alex Collins (18, 13, 0, 20, 16, 15), Javorius Allen (17, 7, 0, 3, 5, 7), Danny Woodhead (0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 3)


RZ Targets: Benjamin Watson (2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 2), Mike Wallace (0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0), Nick Boyle (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Javorius Allen (0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0), Jeremy Maclin (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Danny Woodhead (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Javorius Allen (4, 1, 0, 1, 1, 3), Alex Collins (1, 3, 0, 3, 2, 4), Danny Woodhead (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Javorius Allen (2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Alex Collins (1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Brandon Carr (4-62-0, 4-45-1, 0, 3-56-0, 3-43-0, 2-10-0), Jimmy Smith (2-12-0, 2-6-0, 0, 3-47-0, 5-108-0, 1-31-0), Lardarius Webb (4-28-0, 0, 0, 1-7-0, 2-10-0, 2-38-0), Marlon Humphrey (5-49-0, 0, 0, 2-25-0, 0, 5-116-0), Maurice Canady (0, 1-11-1, 0, 0, 2-3-0, 3-17-0)

 

Observations: Alex Collins continue to capitalize in this offense after taking his 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns. He’s averaging 17.2 touches per game over the last six weeks, which ranks 14th among running backs during that span. That said, he’s been dealing with migraines that apparently the Ravens are concerned about. They head to Pittsburgh in Week 14.


Buffalo Bills

 

Targets: Zay Jones (5, 7, 0, 7, 10, 7), LeSean McCoy (7, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5), Charles Clay (0, 0, 3, 4, 4, 3), Deonte Thompson (1, 10, 4, 8, 2, 8), Jordan Matthews (4, 8, 2, 0, 3, 3), Mike Tolbert (1, 3, 2, 0, 0, 0), Kelvin Benjamin (0, 0, 6, 1, 0, 0)


Carries: LeSean McCoy (27, 12, 8, 13, 22, 15), Mike Tolbert (4, 4, 2, 0, 0, 0), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: LeSean McCoy (3, 1, 0, 1, 0, 2), Zay Jones (0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 3), Charles Clay (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1), Jordan Matthews (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Kelvin Benjamin (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0), Deonte Thompson (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: LeSean McCoy (7, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2)


Inside 5 Carries: LeSean McCoy (4, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): E.J. Gaines (0, 0, 0, 9-98-1, 6-28-0, 1-8-0), Lafayette Pitts (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1-13-0), Leonard Johnson (5-35-0, 0, 4-49-0, 2-24-1, 7-80-1, 1-5-0), Shareece Wright (4-69-0, 1-13-0, 4-33-0, 0, 0, 0), Tre'Davious White (3-26-0, 3-37-1, 2-35-0, 2-19-0, 2-19-0, 2-34-0)

 

Observations: The Bills forced just three points against the Patriots. LeSean McCoy led them with 33 percent of their offensive looks, seeing 15 carries and five targets. Without Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones saw seven targets. Jones is averaging 7.5 targets per game over their last six games. Benjamin is considered day-to-day, leaving Jones as the possible No. 1 WR for the Bills against the Colts next week. It’s also worth noting that Tyrod Taylor is considered day-to-day with a patellar tendon contusion.

 

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Cincinnati Bengals

 

Targets: A.J. Green (8, 2, 7, 9, 8, 16), Brandon LaFell (5, 2, 10, 5, 6, 7), Tyler Kroft (6, 2, 6, 3, 4, 2), Giovani Bernard (2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 3), Joe Mixon (3, 4, 3, 2, 3, 1), John Ross (1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


Carries: Joe Mixon (11, 13, 9, 20, 23, 7), Giovani Bernard (2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 13)


RZ Targets: A.J. Green (3, 0, 0, 1, 1, 5), Tyler Kroft (0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0), Giovani Bernard (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Joe Mixon (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Joe Mixon (2, 2, 1, 2, 7, 1), Giovani Bernard (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Joe Mixon (1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Adam Jones (2-29-0, 4-36-1, 1-8-0, 0, 1-8-0, 1-20-0), Darqueze Dennard (7-48-0, 2-22-0, 4-42-1, 4-39-0, 0, 1-5-0), Dre Kirkpatrick (2-19-0, 6-93-0, 5-49-0, 4-59-1, 4-65-0, 7-76-1), Josh Shaw (0, 0, 0, 3-38-0, 0, 0), William Jackson (0, 1-1-0, 1-9-0, 0, 0, 2-5-0)

 

Observations: A.J. Green was peppered with 16 targets (44 percent target share) on Monday night and turned in a 7-77-2 line. Green is now the WR3 in PPR leagues, behind Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Joe Mixon left the game with a concussion and Giovani Bernard handled 13 carries. The only other active running back on the roster Monday night was Brian Hill. We’ll know more about Mixon’s status later in the week if they activate another running back.

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Targets: Duke Johnson (5, 0, 6, 6, 5, 4), David Njoku (7, 0, 6, 1, 4, 6), Corey Coleman (0, 0, 0, 11, 8, 4), Isaiah Crowell (6, 0, 2, 0, 2, 1), Josh Gordon (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11)


Carries: Isaiah Crowell (11, 0, 16, 11, 16, 10), Duke Johnson (6, 0, 10, 2, 6, 7)


RZ Targets: David Njoku (2, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1), Corey Coleman (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2), Josh Gordon (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Isaiah Crowell (4, 0, 4, 0, 6, 0), Duke Johnson (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2)


Inside 5 Carries: Isaiah Crowell (1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Briean Boddy-Calhoun (3-49-0, 0, 3-16-0, 0, 1-18-0, 2-10-0), Jamar Taylor (6-41-0, 0, 3-77-0, 3-41-0, 0, 3-63-0), Jason McCourty (0, 0, 2-7-0, 0, 6-75-0, 6-83-1), Mike Jordan (3-34-0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)

 

Observations: "Josh Gordon week" was about as great as you could’ve hoped when his quarterback can barely complete 55 percent of his passes and he’s up against one of the best secondaries in the league. Gordon led the Browns with 11 targets (34 percent target share). Per numberFire’s JJ Zachariason, only Odell Beckham was the only receiver to gain more than 85 yards receiving against the Chargers this season. It’s amazing that he was able to hit 85 yards after not playing a snap for three years. Gordon and the Browns have a mouth-watering matchup against the Packers in Week 14.


Denver Broncos

 

Targets: Demaryius Thomas (9, 12, 8, 9, 8, 10), Emmanuel Sanders (0, 5, 11, 8, 6, 7), C.J. Anderson (1, 1, 1, 3, 0, 7), Devontae Booker (3, 3, 1, 6, 2, 1), Jamaal Charles (1, 4, 1, 0, 3, 5), Austin Traylor (0, 0, 0, 5, 4, 2)


Carries: C.J. Anderson (15, 9, 10, 13, 5, 15), Jamaal Charles (8, 4, 8, 3, 1, 3), Devontae Booker (6, 6, 8, 14, 6, 2)


RZ Targets: Demaryius Thomas (0, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1), Emmanuel Sanders (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Jamaal Charles (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 0), Jamaal Charles (0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0), Devontae Booker (4, 0, 1, 5, 1, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: C.J. Anderson (0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0), Jamaal Charles (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Devontae Booker (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Aqib Talib (2-38-0, 4-64-2, 1-25-0, 4-34-0, 0, 0), Bradley Roby (1-19-0, 5-53-0, 3-24-0, 2-47-2, 2-19-0, 2-42-0), Brendan Langley (0, 0, 0, 0, 2-63-1, 0), Chris Harris Jr. (1-5-0, 2-36-0, 2-11-0, 1-3-0, 0, 2-37-0)

 

Observations: Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas dominated target share with Trevor Siemian back under center, combining for 41 percent of the Broncos’ target share. Sadly they each caught only two passes and failed to top 27 yards receiving. Devontae Booker’s snaps have decreased every week since Week 11; 59% < 44% < 15%. It’s hard to feel confident about any of these running backs on an abysmal offense.


Houston Texans

 

Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (11, 16, 14, 9, 10, 14), Bruce Ellington (4, 8, 8, 7, 8, 2), Stephen Anderson (2, 6, 3, 3, 0, 12), Lamar Miller (3, 4, 1, 5, 3, 4), Will Fuller (8, 8, 3, 0, 0, 0), Braxton Miller (0, 0, 0, 3, 6, 4), C.J. Fiedorowicz (0, 0, 6, 2, 8, 3), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6), Alfred Blue (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1)


Carries: Lamar Miller (21, 10, 11, 22, 17, 15), Alfred Blue (5, 0, 4, 0, 8, 4), Bruce Ellington (0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Braxton Miller (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (0, 3, 2, 1, 0, 3), Stephen Anderson (0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 4), Bruce Ellington (1, 1, 1, 0, 3, 0), Lamar Miller (1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0), Will Fuller (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), C.J. Fiedorowicz (0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Braxton Miller (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Lamar Miller (3, 0, 2, 2, 1, 1), Alfred Blue (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)


Inside 5 Carries: Lamar Miller (2, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0), Alfred Blue (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Andre Ellington (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Coverage Data (via PFF): Johnathan Joseph (3-16-0, 2-62-1, 5-138-1, 4-37-1, 2-26-0, 3-12-0), Kareem Jackson (5-109-0, 3-27-0, 8-88-1, 8-71-0, 2-10-0, 2-33-0), Kevin Johnson (6-90-1, 3-33-0, 1--2-0, 2-48-2, 3-8-0, 3-49-1), Marcus Williams (3-46-0, 0, 2-24-1, 0, 1-22-0, 1--1-0)


Observations: Tom Savage took over for the Texans in Week 9, and since then DeAndre Hopkins’ 12.6 targets per game leads the league. During that span, he has six or more receptions four of those five games, while topping 75 in each of them.

 

Indianapolis Colts


Targets: Jack Doyle (14, 9, 5, 0, 8, 5), T.Y. Hilton (7, 9, 4, 0, 5, 6), Donte Moncrief (1, 2, 1, 0, 3, 8), Frank Gore (4, 4, 1, 0, 5, 0), Marlon Mack (5, 0, 4, 0, 2, 2), Chester Rogers (2, 2, 6, 0, 4, 6)


Carries: Frank Gore (16, 17, 17, 0, 17, 13), Marlon Mack (11, 9, 7, 0, 4, 6), Chester Rogers (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Targets: T.Y. Hilton (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0), Donte Moncrief (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Jack Doyle (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Frank Gore (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0), Chester Rogers (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Marlon Mack (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Frank Gore (3, 0, 0, 0, 5, 2), Marlon Mack (2, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Inside 5 Carries: None.


Coverage Data (via PFF): Kenny Moore II (0, 0, 0, 0, 1-19-0, 5-80-0), Nate Hairston (0, 4-43-0, 4-43-1, 0, 6-52-0, 5-36-2), Pierre Desir (2-25-1, 6-86-1, 4-81-1, 0, 2-16-0, 3-21-0), Quincy Wilson (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2-36-0), Rashaan Melvin (0, 1-10-0, 3-57-0, 0, 0, 0), Vontae Davis (3-49-1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Observations: As expected, the Colts couldn’t do much on the road in Jacksonville. T.Y. Hilton managed to break free for a long touchdown as he went 3-51-1 on six targets. Their strong in the secondary, but the Jags can be beaten on the ground as they showed on Sunday as Frank Gore and Marlon combined for 107 rushing yards on 19 attempts.


Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Targets: Marqise Lee (0, 12, 11, 9, 2, 10), Allen Hurns (0, 4, 9, 0, 0, 0), Keelan Cole (0, 5, 8, 6, 7, 3), Marcedes Lewis (0, 6, 5, 2, 2, 5), Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 4, 3, 3, 4), Chris Ivory (0, 4, 2, 0, 0, 1), Dede Westbrook (0, 0, 0, 6, 10, 9)


Carries: Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 17, 28, 12, 20), Chris Ivory (0, 20, 1, 6, 1, 4)


RZ Targets: Marcedes Lewis (0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0), Marqise Lee (0, 3, 1, 0, 0, 1), Chris Ivory (0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1), Keelan Cole (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Dede Westbrook (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 6), Chris Ivory (0, 7, 0, 0, 0, 1)


Inside 5 Carries: Leonard Fournette (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Chris Ivory (0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0)


Coverage Data (via PFF): A.J. Bouye (0, 1-19-0, 1-20-0, 2-16-0, 2-24-0, 6-37-0), Aaron Colvin (0, 1-9-0, 1--2-0, 1-5-0, 1-7-0, 8-52-0), Jalen Ramsey (0, 1-6-0, 5-41-0, 4-46-0, 3-4-0, 3-58-1), Tyler Patmon (0, 0, 1-4-0, 0, 0, 0)


Observations: Marqise Lee bounced back nicely with a 7-86-1 game on 10 targets after being shadowed by Patrick Peterson in Week 12. Since Dede Westbrook’s Week 11 return, he leads the Jaguars with 8.3 targets game. The Jags take on the Seahawks in Week 14.



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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