Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Week 4 NFC Targets/Touches

Tuesday, October 3, 2017


Targets and Touches will only have players’ six most recent games, regardless if they were active or on a bye. The data will be in descending order of games played. I also decided to add carries inside the five-yard line for running backs rather than just red zone carries. Carries inside the five is more valuable overall as the average touchdown rate over the last 10 years from within five yards is 39 percent, with a substantial drop from further out.

 

All targets and touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. Cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus. The NFC will be released on Tuesdays, while the AFC is published on Wednesday.

 

The goal of these articles is to give you an idea of what the usage looks like for each player within their offenses, allowing you to spot any positive or negative trends regarding how a player is being used, and most importantly — letting the numbers tell the story.

 

Note: This data will stick to fantasy-relevant players.

 

Arizona Cardinals

 

Targets: Larry Fitzgerald (13, 6, 15, 7), Andre Ellington (3, 5, 8, 14), Jaron Brown (0, 11, 6, 12), J.J. Nelson (6, 7, 3, 4), Jermaine Gresham (4, 0, 9, 3), John Brown (9, 0, 0, 7), David Johnson (9, 0, 0, 0), Chris Johnson (0, 0, 2, 3), Kerwynn Williams (1, 0, 0, 1)

 

Carries: Chris Johnson (0, 11, 12, 13), Kerwynn Williams (5, 9, 1, 1), Andre Ellington (0, 2, 5, 5), David Johnson (11, 0, 0, 0), John Brown (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Larry Fitzgerald (3, 1, 4, 2), Jaron Brown (0, 2, 2, 1), Jermaine Gresham (2, 0, 2, 1), Andre Ellington (0, 1, 1, 2), J.J. Nelson (1, 2, 0, 0), John Brown (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Kerwynn Williams (1, 4, 0, 0), David Johnson (3, 0, 0, 0), Andre Ellington (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: David Johnson (1, 0, 0, 0), Kerwynn Williams (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Budda Baker Justin Bethel (5-94-2, 3-35-0, 3-76-1, 3-48-0), Patrick Peterson (1-6-1, 1-16-0, 1-0-0, 2-34-0), Tyrann Mathieu (6-74-0, 1-14-0, 2-66-0, 6-52-0)

 

Observations: With a lack of running game, Carson Palmer dropped back to pass 51 times (!!) Andre Ellington led the team with 14 targets, of Ellington’s 46 snaps, he spent 36 of them on a pass route. Since Week 2, Ellington leads running backs in pass routes (101), targets (26), and fifth in receiving yards. Jaron Brown saw 12 targets, but he played the third-fewest snaps behind Larry Fitzgerald (95 percent) and John Brown (95 percent.) With zero run-game, Ellington will make for an exceptional floor play in PPR leagues given he should see steady pass volume with the amount of dropbacks Palmer will have most weeks.

 

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Atlanta Falcons

 

Targets: Julio Jones (5, 9, 12, 4), Mohamed Sanu (9, 6, 6, 3), Tevin Coleman (6, 2, 5, 6), Taylor Gabriel (4, 3, 6, 5), Austin Hooper (2, 2, 2, 7), Devonta Freeman (2, 2, 3, 2), Justin Hardy (0, 2, 0, 6)

 

Carries: Devonta Freeman (12, 19, 21, 18), Tevin Coleman (8, 6, 6, 9), Mohamed Sanu (0, 0, 0, 1), Taylor Gabriel (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Taylor Gabriel (2, 0, 0, 3), Austin Hooper (0, 1, 1, 2), Devonta Freeman (0, 1, 2, 0), Mohamed Sanu (0, 0, 2, 1), Julio Jones (0, 1, 1, 0), Tevin Coleman (0, 1, 0, 1), Justin Hardy (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Devonta Freeman (2, 2, 6, 4), Tevin Coleman (0, 1, 0, 1), Mohamed Sanu (0, 0, 0, 1), Taylor Gabriel (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Devonta Freeman (1, 2, 3, 2), Mohamed Sanu (0, 0, 0, 1), Tevin Coleman (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Brian Poole (7-41-0, 7-77-0, 8-109-0, 1-6-0), Desmond Trufant (3-43-1, 2-26-0, 3-20-0, 1-9-1), Robert Alford (4-44-0, 8-91-1, 3-45-0, 2-26-0)

 

Observations: Julio Jones left this game with a back injury, and Mohamed Sanu is expected to miss two-to-three weeks with a hamstring injury. In return, Justin Hardy played 77 percent of the snaps, and Taylor Gabriel saw 80 percent. Jones isn't supposed to miss any time; we likely don’t need to pay any attention to those Hardy or Gabriel for now. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman continued their split with Freeman playing 65 percent of snaps, and 36 percent for Coleman. Although, the touches were a little more even since Coleman saw six targets in this game. However, Freeman got the two carries from inside the five-yard line.

 

Carolina Panthers

 

Targets: Christian McCaffrey (7, 5, 11, 6), Devin Funchess (2, 7, 10, 9), Kelvin Benjamin (5, 8, 2, 4), Ed Dickson (1, 3, 1, 4), Curtis Samuel (0, 3, 5, 0), Greg Olsen (4, 2, 0, 0), Jonathan Stewart (2, 1, 2, 1)

 

Carries: Jonathan Stewart (18, 15, 12, 14), Christian McCaffrey (13, 8, 4, 6), Curtis Samuel (0, 0, 1, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Devin Funchess (0, 1, 0, 3), Christian McCaffrey (0, 1, 1, 1), Kelvin Benjamin (0, 1, 1, 0), Jonathan Stewart (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Jonathan Stewart (2, 2, 2, 2), Christian McCaffrey (1, 2, 1, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Jonathan Stewart (2, 2, 0, 0)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Captain Munnerlyn (0, 2-21-0, 3-17-0, 2-51-0), Daryl Worley (5-46-0, 4-27-0, 3-22-2, 0), James Bradberry (4-42-0, 3-21-0, 3-77-1, 5-51-0)

 

Observations: Cam Newton attempted just 29 passes, but Devin Funchess had a team-high nine targets and found the end zone twice against the Patriots. Through four weeks, Christian McCaffrey still leads the Panthers with 24 percent target share, 22 receptions, 216 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. It's also worth noting that Funchess has 19 targets in two games without Greg Olsen in the lineup. 

 

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Chicago Bears

 

Targets: Tarik Cohen (12, 9, 4, 4), Zach Miller (6, 9, 3, 2), Deonte Thompson (2, 5, 2, 9), Kendall Wright (4, 10, 0, 4), Josh Bellamy (4, 7, 0, 6), Jordan Howard (5, 1, 5, 4), Markus Wheaton (0, 0, 2, 3), Kevin White (4, 0, 0, 0), Benny Cunningham (0, 0, 3, 0)

 

Carries: Jordan Howard (13, 9, 23, 18), Tarik Cohen (5, 7, 12, 6), Benny Cunningham (0, 0, 0, 5)

 

RZ Targets: Kendall Wright (0, 4, 0, 1), Tarik Cohen (1, 2, 0, 2), Deonte Thompson (0, 2, 0, 2), Zach Miller (2, 2, 0, 0), Josh Bellamy (1, 0, 0, 1), Jordan Howard (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Jordan Howard (2, 0, 5, 1), Tarik Cohen (1, 0, 0, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Jordan Howard (1, 0, 2, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Bryce Callahan (2-10-0, 1-8-0, 3-21-0, 1-2-1), Kyle Fuller (4-39-0, 4-42-0, 7-82-0, 3-57-0), Marcus Cooper Sr. (2-33-0, 4-36-1, 1-10-0, 3-65-1), Prince Amukamara (0, 0, 1-7-1, 1-8-1)

 

Observations: The Bears’ offense was a fantasy wasteland on Thursday night against the Packers. Nobody had more than five receptions or saw more than 51 receiving yards. They’ve looked incredibly flat with Mike Glennon behind center, and they finally decided to name Mitch Trubisky as the Week 5 starter. Trubisky completed 36-of-53 preseason passes for 364 yards and three touchdowns.

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

Targets: Dez Bryant (9, 16, 2, 13), Jason Witten (9, 13, 4, 2), Terrance Williams (7, 5, 4, 6), Cole Beasley (5, 8, 1, 6), Ezekiel Elliott (5, 5, 4, 5), Brice Butler (3, 2, 2, 2)

 

Carries: Ezekiel Elliott (24, 9, 22, 21), Alfred Morris (4, 0, 0, 2)

 

RZ Targets: Dez Bryant (3, 3, 1, 0), Jason Witten (1, 3, 0, 1), Ezekiel Elliott (1, 0, 0, 1), Brice Butler (0, 0, 0, 1), Cole Beasley (0, 1, 0, 0), Terrance Williams (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Carries: Ezekiel Elliott (2, 1, 2, 5), Alfred Morris (2, 0, 0, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Ezekiel Elliott (0, 1, 0, 3)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Anthony Brown (1-6-0, 7-62-1, 3-48-2, 2-15-0), Jourdan Lewis (0, 3-22-1, 5-33-0, 1-19-0), Orlando Scandrick (1-12-0, 0, 3-67-0, 3-19-1)

 

Observations: Dez Bryant led the Cowboys with 36 percent of their target share. He also led Dallas in receptions (five) and receiving yards (98), but his stat line disappointed as he failed to find the end zone. He’ll look to rebound against a Green Bay defense next week that ranks in the bottom-10 in passing yards allowed and has already surrendered 10 passing touchdowns — tied for the second-highest mark in the league.

 

Detroit Lions

 

Targets: Golden Tate (12, 4, 11, 5), Theo Riddick (7, 3, 9, 2), Eric Ebron (3, 5, 7, 4), Marvin Jones (2, 5, 6, 5), Kenny Golladay (7, 3, 5, 0), T.J. Jones (4, 0, 3, 5), Ameer Abdullah (4, 0, 3, 4)

 

Carries: Ameer Abdullah (15, 17, 14, 20), Theo Riddick (1, 9, 0, 4), Dwayne Washington (6, 3, 0, 0), Zach Zenner (0, 0, 3, 3), Golden Tate (2, 0, 0, 1)

 

RZ Targets: Golden Tate (1, 0, 2, 1), Eric Ebron (0, 1, 2, 0), Kenny Golladay (1, 0, 2, 0), Ameer Abdullah (0, 0, 1, 1), T.J. Jones (0, 0, 0, 2), Theo Riddick (1, 0, 1, 0), Marvin Jones (1, 0, 0, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Ameer Abdullah (4, 0, 0, 2), Dwayne Washington (2, 2, 0, 0), Theo Riddick (0, 0, 0, 1), Zach Zenner (0, 0, 1, 0)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Ameer Abdullah (1, 0, 0, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Darius Slay (2-9-0, 5-55-0, 7-68-0, 2-43-0), DJ Hayden (4-74-0, 0, 2-23-0, 2-20-0), Nevin Lawson (5-57-0, 2-25-0, 3-27-0, 1-24-0), Quandre Diggs (1-4-0, 4-31-0, 2-44-2, 1-6-0)

 

Observations: Eric Ebron played just 44 percent of the snaps in Week 4, and hauled in just two receptions for 27 yards. He’s now been under five fantasy points in three of his four starts this season. Ameer Abdullah continues to see steady carries, with 14 or more in every game. Detroit only ran three plays inside the five-yard line, but it was nice to see Abdullah receive the lone carry from in close and punch it in for a score. He’s now broke 85 yards rushing in two of his last three games.

 

Green Bay Packers

 

Targets: Davante Adams (7, 10, 6, 5), Martellus Bennett (6, 11, 4, 7), Randall Cobb (13, 9, 0, 4), Jordy Nelson (8, 0, 9, 7), Ty Montgomery (4, 7, 12, 0), Geronimo Allison (0, 5, 8, 0), Jamaal Williams (0, 1, 0, 1)

 

Carries: Ty Montgomery (19, 10, 12, 5), Aaron Jones (0, 0, 0, 13), Jamaal Williams (2, 2, 1, 4), Randall Cobb (0, 1, 0, 0)

 

RZ Targets: Davante Adams (0, 1, 3, 3), Jordy Nelson (0, 0, 4, 2), Martellus Bennett (0, 0, 0, 3), Randall Cobb (0, 2, 0, 1), Ty Montgomery (0, 1, 2, 0)

 

RZ Carries: Ty Montgomery (1, 1, 5, 0), Aaron Jones (0, 0, 0, 4), Jamaal Williams (0, 1, 0, 1)

 

Inside 5 Carries: Ty Montgomery (0, 1, 3, 0), Aaron Jones (0, 0, 0, 1), Jamaal Williams (0, 0, 0, 1)

 

Coverage Data (via PFF): Damarious Randall (4-59-0, 4-87-0, 3-20-0, 2-7-1), Kevin King (0, 1-12-0, 6-96-0, 3-36-0), Morgan Burnett (0, 0, 0, 1-14-0)

 

Observations: Jamaal Williams is expected to miss time with a sprained knee, and Ty Montgomery is considered day-to-day with a rib injury. For now, Aaron Jones is expected to be the Week 5 starter for the Packers against the Cowboys. After a grueling hit to the head, Davante Adams’ status is also up in the air. If he were to miss, Geronimo Allison would be in line as a waiver wire candidate. All of these situations will be worth monitoring this week.  



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Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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