Justin Bailey

Targets and Touches

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Wild Card Targets/Touches

Wednesday, January 11, 2017


For anyone playing in a fantasy league in the playoffs or dabbling in some daily games, I’ll be updating the Targets and Touches Report for the Wild-card and Divisional playoff rounds.

 

As always, all targets/touches data is compiled from Pro Football Reference. All cornerback data is sourced via Pro Football Focus.

 

Due to the limited scope of the four-game playoff slate, the analysis section will be brief for each team


Detroit Lions


Targets: Golden Tate (10, 11, 13, 6, 10, 5), Marvin Jones (0, 5, 5, 7, 9, 7), Anquan Boldin (6, 6, 4, 7, 6, 6), Eric Ebron (6, 5, 7, 12, 6, 6), Zach Zenner (0, 2, 5, 3, 5, 6)


Carries: Zach Zenner (9, 7, 3, 12, 20, 11)


RZ Targets: Anquan Boldin (3, 3, 2, 1, 2, 0), Golden Tate ( 2, 2, 2, 3, 0), Marvin Jones (0, 0, 1, 3, 0), Eric Ebron (1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0), Zach Zenner (0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Zach Zenner (0, 1, 1, 4, 2, 0), Matthew Stafford (1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0)


CBs Thrown At: Nevin Lawson 7, 5, 2, 3, 7, 3 (6-65, 2-28, 2-33, 3-48-1, 5-31-1, 3-57), , Darius Slay 5, 3 (5-47, 2-23)


Observations: The Lions’ offense struggled overall as Matthew Stafford threw for just 205 yards with zero touchdowns and interceptions. Dwayne Washington has been phased out of this offense with Zach Zenner garnering all the RB carries for the Lions in their Wild Card game. Marvin Jones had the best receiving among all the pass-catchers, with 81 yards on a team-high seven targets. Anquan Boldin, Eric Ebron, and Golden Tate all failed to top 25 receiving yards.


Green Bay Packers


Targets: Jordy Nelson (10, 7, 10, 11, 6, 3), Davante Adams (7, 6, 6, 7, 9, 12), Randall Cobb (3, 3, 1, 0, 0, 7), Ty Montgomery (3, 4, 3, 5, 5, 4), Jared Cook (4, 2, 8, 5, 8, 9), Geronimo Allison (0, 0, 1, 7, 6, 2), Aaron Ripkowski (1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 2), Christine Michael (0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0)


Carries: Ty Montgomery (6, 9, 16, 9, 8, 11), Aaron Rodgers (3, 3, 3, 2, 10, 2), Aaron Ripkowski (3, 3, 3, 0, 0, 9), Christine Michael ( 9, 10, 4, 4, 3, 10)


RZ Targets: Jordy Nelson (3, 3, 1, 2, 1, 0), Davante Adams (0, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2), Randall Cobb (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2), Ty Montgomery (0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0), Jared Cook (1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 0), Geronimo Allison (0, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Ty Montgomery ( 0, 2, 5, 0, 1, 2), Aaron Rodgers (1, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0), Aaron Ripkowski (1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Christine Michael (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2)


CBs Thrown At: Micah Hyde 6, 6, 8 (3-11-1, 5-46, 5-67), Ladarius Gunter 6, 5 (2-34, 2-14), Damarious Randall 8 (4-75-1)

Observations: Had Jordy Nelson and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie not gone down with an injury, it’s hard to believe Randall Cobb would’ve had this sort of fantasy game. Cobb was highly questionable heading into this game but hauled in five of his seven targets for 116 yards and three touchdowns. One of those touchdowns came on a desperate 42-yard heave from Aaron Rodgers to end the half. It was the perfect storm for Cobb in this game. Jared Cook also has eight or more targets in three of his last four games, but that has come with various pieces missing from their offense. If Nelson can’t suit up this weekend, his volume could still be safe.


Houston Texans


Targets: DeAndre Hopkins (8, 4, 17, 6, 11, 9), Will Fuller (6, 4, 8, 6, 7, 5), C.J. Fiedorowicz (9, 7, 0, 7, 7, 4), Ryan Griffin (6, 2, 8, 2, 4, 4), Lamar Miller (1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1)


Carries: Lamar Miller (14, 21, 22, 0, 0, 31), Alfred Blue (0, 5, 16, 1, 21, 11), Brock Osweiler (3, 2, 0, 0, 1, 6), Jonathan Grimes (5, 1, 1, 0, 8, 4)


RZ Targets: C.J. Fiedorowicz (1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 0), DeAndre Hopkins (0, 1, 2, 1, 0, 0), Will Fuller (0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0), Ryan Griffin (1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0), Lamar Miller (0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Lamar Miller (1, 6, 4, 0, 0, 3), Brock Osweiler (0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1)


CBs Thrown At: A.J. Bouye 9, 3, 6, 12, 3, 7 (7-57-1, 2-16, 1-11, 8-126-1, 1-5, 0-0), Robert Nelson 5, 4 (3-59-1, 1-3), Johnathan Joseph 14 (8-96-1)


Observations: After two weeks off, Lamar Miller saw a season-high 31 carries for the Texans. Unfortunately, he managed just 2.3 YPC, but he saved the fantasy day with a touchdown. As 16-point underdogs against the Patriots next week, it may be more difficult for the Texans to try and rely on their running game. It could be a disastrous game for the Texans if they’re forced to rely on their passing game.


Miami Dolphins


Targets: Jarvis Landry (14, 6, 4, 6, 12, 14), DeVante Parker (4, 3, 3, 7, 7, 7), Kenny Stills (5, 7, 3, 8, 7, 5), Dion Sims (4, 2, 4, 3, 1, 5), Jay Ajayi ( 7, 3, 0, 1, 3, 3), Damien Williams (2, 3, 0, 3, 4, 2),


Carries: Jay Ajayi (12, 20, 19, 32, 16, 16),  Damien Williams (1, 5, 3, 0, 2, 3)


RZ Targets: DeVante Parker (1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), Jarvis Landry (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1), Damien Williams ( 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1), Dion Sims (0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0), Kenny Stills (0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Jay Ajayi (0, 1, 2, 6, 0, 0), Damien Williams (0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 1)

CBs Thrown At: Tony Lippett 3, 8, 5, 4, 4, 7 (2-14, 8-130-1, 0-0, 2-29, 3-33-1, 6-111-1), Xavien Howard 10, 8, 4, 4 (3-66, 5-99-2, 3-32, 3-15)


Observations: Jarvis Landry had the type of Landry game we were accustomed to in his career after he hauled in 11 of his 14 targets for 102 yards. Landry has been much better this season when the Dolphins are underdogs, compared to favorites. Stuck in catchup mode, Jay Ajayi saw just 16 carries for 33 yards against the Steelers. As the clear-cut RB1 in this offense, he’ll be high on most people’s draft board next fantasy season.


New York Giants


Targets: Odell Beckham (16, 9, 8, 20, 7, 11), Sterling Shepard (8, 4, 5, 11, 5, 9), Victor Cruz (0, 4, 2, 13, 4, 5), Will Tye (4, 2, 4, 8, 5, 7), Rashad Jennings (6, 2, 0, 5, 1, 1), Bobby Rainey (0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1), Paul Perkins (0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 5)


Carries: Rashad Jennings (6, 15, 18, 9, 18, 5), Paul Perkins (7, 15, 11, 15, 21, 10)


RZ Targets: Odell Beckham (4, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0), Sterling Shepard (1, 0, 1, 3, 1, 3), Victor Cruz (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1), Will Tye (2, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0)


RZ Carries: Rashad Jennings (1, 0, 0, 2, 5, 0), Paul Perkins (0, 0, 3, 0, 2, 0)


CBs Thrown At: Eli Apple 7, 5, 8, 3, 6, 9 (3-27, 2-31, 5-39, 2-47-1, 4-39-1, 4-97-2), Trevin Wade 6, 6, 3 (4-25, 5-64, 2-50-1), Janoris Jenkins 2 (1-18), Leon Hall 5 (4-28)


Observations: Odell Beckham struggled with the Packers’ double teams and his own drops as he hauled in just four of his 11 targets for 28 yards. The Packers’ defense also did a decent job of bottling up OBJ in Week 5 (5-56-1.)  


Oakland Raiders


Targets: Michael Crabtree (11, 7, 8, 10, 8, 7), Amari Cooper (4, 10, 3, 6, 8, 10), Seth Roberts (5, 9, 3, 3, 3, 7), Clive Walford (3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2), Latavius Murray (5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4), Jalen Richard (0, 4, 5, 3, 1, 2)


Carries: Latavius Murray (20, 22, 13, 15, 5, 12), DeAndre Washington (0, 0, 5, 12, 7, 4), Jalen Richard (9, 6, 6, 6, 3, 3)


RZ Targets: Michael Crabtree (4, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0), Seth Roberts (0, 5, 2, 1, 0, 0), Amari Cooper (0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: Latavius Murray (5, 4, 4, 2, 0, 2), Jalen Richard (3, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0)


CBs Thrown At:  Sean Smith 7, 9, 6, 1, 5, 3 (4-77-1, 5-54, 4-86-2, 1-24-1, 3-38, 2-5), David Amerson 5, 8, 2, 6, 6 (2-21, 5-21, 1-12, 4-32, 4-89)


Observations: It was tough sledding for Connor Cook against a Texans defense that ranks fifth in pass DVOA. Cook threw for just 161 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. The Raiders didn’t have much of a chance throwing in a QB making his first career start. They managed just 201 yards of total offense.


Pittsburgh Steelers


Targets: Antonio Brown (7, 11, 5, 11, 0, 9), LeVeon Bell (7, 5, 8, 4, 0, 2), Eli Rogers (3, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1), Jesse James (4, 3, 1, 5, 3, 2)


Carries: LeVeon Bell (29, 38, 23, 20, 0, 29), DeAngelo Williams (0, 0, 0, 0, 23, 2), Ben Roethlisberger (0, 3, 4, 1, 0, 4)


RZ Targets: Antonio Brown (0, 2, 0, 3, 0, 1), Jesse James (0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0), LeVeon Bell ( 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0)


RZ Carries: LeVeon Bell (0, 9, 4, 1, 0, 6), DeAngelo Williams (0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0), Ben Roethlisberger (0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0)


CBs Thrown At: Ross Cockrell 6, 5, 5, 3, 8, 5 (2-19, 4-31, 4-48, 2-19, 5-37-1, 4-57) Artie Burns 6, 6, 5, 5, 8, 5 (3-19, 5-32, 2-23, 3-20, 6-83, 5-30), William Gay 5, 7 (5-22, 5-61)


Observations: The Steelers didn’t have much use for players outside of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Brown led the Steelers with nine, 124 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Everyone else saw two or fewer targets in a game where Ben Roethlisberger had to throw just 18 times. Bell handled the rest as he throttled Miami’s defense for 167 yards and two touchdowns. Big Ben hurt his foot on one of the Steelers last plays, but he is expected to be fine.


Seattle Seahawks


Targets: Doug Baldwin (7, 11, 6, 19, 4, 12), Jimmy Graham ( 9, 4, 2, 3, 7, 4), Jermaine Kearse (9, 6, 2, 9, 7, 3), Paul Richardson (0, 0, 0, 5, 7, 4)


Carries: Thomas Rawls (15, 12, 21, 8, 8, 27), Russell Wilson (3, 4, 6, 10, 2, 3), Alex Collins (0, 7, 0, 7, 7, 6)


RZ Targets: Jimmy Graham (5, 1, 1, 0, 3, 1), Doug Baldwin (1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 2), Jermaine Kearse (3, 1, 0, 2, 1, 2), Paul Richardson (0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1)


RZ Carries: Thomas Rawls (3, 2, 5, 2, 3, 5), Alex Collins (0, 0, 0, 3, 0, 2)

CBs Thrown At: Richard Sherman 5, 2, 6, 8, 3, 1 (1-11, 1-11, 2-39, 5-82, 3-37, 0-0), DeShawn Shead 8, 5, 5, 3, 2, 8 (4-67, 5-58, 4-37, 3-58, 2-14, 0-0), Jeremy Lane 4, 3, 5 (3-95-1, 1-8, 4-75)


Observations: After averaging less than 1.8 YPC in his last three games and combining for just 16 carries, the last two weeks, Thomas Rawls erupted for 161 rushing yards and one touchdown on 27 carries against the Lions. It was a season-high for him in the carries department as Rawls had just one game all year where he saw 20-plus carries. Rawls gets an Atlanta defense that ranked 29th in rush DVOA this season, a matchup he should be able to exploit if he can carry his momentum from this week into next week. Doug Baldwin saw more targets (12) than Paul Richardson, Jimmy Graham, and Paul Richardson combined. Baldwin strung together another nice outing with 104 yards and a touchdown while catching 11 of his 12 targets. Baldwin now has three touchdowns in his last four games, and should be able to exploit a poor Falcons secondary next weekend.




Justin Bailey has been working with Rotoworld since 2015. His stat-forward analysis can also be found on FantasyLabs and 4for4. Follow him on Twitter - @justinbailey32.
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