Rich Hribar

The Worksheet

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The NFL Week 15 Worksheet

Wednesday, December 14, 2016


We’ve made it to Week 15 and hopefully you are looking to set up a victory to get into your championships for seasonal leagues. If you happened to miss or get eliminated from the playoffs already, fantasy football doesn’t have to end. Make sure you’re dabbling in DFS to tide you over for the rest of the season as you have the freedom to play any level you want. 

 

Let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. You can always cross reference these thoughts with my weekly rankings for further context. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 15 games with a PPR light…


 

Los Angeles vs. Seattle


RamsRank@SeahawksRank
15   Spread -15  
11.8   Implied Total 26.8  
60.8 28 Plays/Gm 62.4 23
64.8 21 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.3 24
38.9% 21 Rush% 39.6% 17
61.1% 12 Pass% 60.4% 16
40.5% 16 Opp. Rush % 42.9% 26
59.5% 17 Opp. Pass % 57.1% 7

 

  • Seattle averages 28.7 points per game at home (6th) as opposed to 14.6 per game on the road (31st).
  • The Seahawks have scored a touchdown on just two of their past seven red zone opportunities, the lowest rate in the league over the past three weeks.
  • Russell Wilson has completed just 41.2 percent (21 of 51) of his red zone passes, the second lowest rate in the league for quarterbacks with 20 or more attempts.
  • Opponents have scored a touchdown on 70.7 percent of their red zone possessions versus the Rams, the second highest rate in the league.
  • Jimmy Graham has 14 red zone targets (5th for all tight ends), but just one of those is from inside of the 10-yard line.
  • 74.1 percent of Thomas Rawls' rushing yardage has been gained on first down, the second highest rate in the league next to Chris Ivory (86 percent).
  • Los Angeles has reached the red zone just 27 times this season, the fewest in the league.

 

Trust: Russell Wilson (Wilson has made a living on disappointing in these spots this season and also has a sketchy history versus the Rams defense, but as a huge favorite at home coming off of laying an egg, I believe Seattle dominates), Jimmy Graham (he’s been  a top-10 scorer in five consecutive games at home)

 

Bust: Todd Gurley (a late score last week gave him his first top-12 scoring week on the season, but the Los Angeles total here is submerged in darkness while Seattle is allowing the fourth fewest yards from scrimmage to backfields on the season), Jared Goff (nope)

 

Reasonable Return: Thomas Rawls (this is a spot that should be conducive to scoring for a lead back and the Rams have allowed seven top-16 scoring backs over their past five games), Doug Baldwin (it’s a favorable layout for the Seattle core, but Baldwin has just three top-24 scoring weeks over his past 10 games, which holds me back from going head first on him), Kenny Britt (as bad as things are on the surface for the Rams side, Britt has been a constant, scoring in the top-25 in five of his past six games and managed a 6-94 line in the Week 2 meeting between these teams)

 

Miami vs. New York (AFC)

 

DolphinsRank@JetsRank
-2.5   Spread 2.5  
20.3   Implied Total 17.8  
57.1 32 Plays/Gm 62.7 20
66.4 27 Opp. Plays/Gm 63.2 13
42.9% 9 Rush% 41.2% 12
57.1% 24 Pass% 58.8% 21
42.1% 23 Opp. Rush % 40.5% 17
57.9% 10 Opp. Pass % 59.5% 16

 

  • The Dolphins have averaged 291.2 yards from scrimmage per game on the road, 29th in the league.
  • Over the past five weeks, Jay Ajayi is the RB23 in overall scoring with a high week of RB17.
  • 30.8 percent of the runs against the Jets have failed to gain any yardage, the lowest rate in the league, but 14 percent have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Jets have allowed 148 rushing yards per game over the past five weeks after allowing 74 yards on the ground per game over their first eight games.
  • The Jets have scored just 10 touchdowns at home this season, 31st in the league.
  • 38.4 percent of the runs versus Miami have gained five or more yards, the second highest rate in the league.
  • 47.4 percent of Bilal Powell's runs have gained five or more yards, the highest rate for all backs with 50 or more carries on the season.
  • Powell’s 1.15 points per touch is the third highest for all backs with over 100 touches on the season.
  • Robby Anderson has 31.2 percent of the targets from Bryce Petty this season. For context, Mike Evans leads the league in target share for the season at 31.3 percent.
  • Anderson has 11 targets on throws 15 yards or further downfield over the past two weeks, the most in the league.

 

Trust: Bilal Powell (treating early week analysis of him as if Matt Forte will be held out due to the vague disclosure of his injury, Powell has been electric per touch in a timeshare and is a fringe RB1 in the scenario that he's the standalone back)

 

Bust: Matt Moore (there’s a story I can tell myself in leagues that start multiple quarterbacks, but the bottom line is that he’s a backup quarterback on a team that wants to be run heavy when possible while on the road in a shortened week attached to a low team total), Brandon Marshall (his season has been so disappointing that New York wide receivers have combined for 10 top-20 scoring weeks and he's only had three of them while he hasn't hit 70 receiving yards in a game since Week 5)

 

Reasonable Return: Robby Anderson (he’s been the WR17 and WR16 the past two weeks with 23 total targets and that volume is packed with high upside targets), Jay Ajayi (he’s dropped off after his insanely hot run, but the volume should still be here against a Jets run defense that has been far from where they were early in the season), Jarvis Landry (if I had to play any Miami receiver, it would be Landry because the types of targets he gets are the most bankable week to week, but it’s hard to feel good about this passing game even if Moore is a serviceable option)

 

Cleveland vs. Buffalo 

 

BrownsRank@BillsRank
10   Spread -10  
16.3   Implied Total 26.3  
60.5 30 Plays/Gm 61.1 27
66.7 28 Opp. Plays/Gm 64.3 19
34.0% 32 Rush% 47.2% 3
66.0% 1 Pass% 52.8% 30
47.4% 31 Opp. Rush % 45.5% 29
52.6% 2 Opp. Pass % 54.6% 4

 

  • The Browns have scored just one or fewer touchdowns in five straight games, their longest streak since 2008.
  • Robert Griffin has completed just nine of 26 targets (34.6 percent) to Corey Coleman and Terrelle Pryor in his two starts while they have combined to catch 59.3 percent of their targets from other Cleveland quarterbacks.
  • Buffalo has allowed 187.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, the most in the league.
  • The Bills average 3.7 offensive touchdowns per game at home, tied with New Orleans for the most in the league.
  • Cleveland allows 3.7 offensive touchdowns per game on the road, the second most in the league.
  • Buffalo leads the league in rushing yardage per game (154.6) while Cleveland allows the second most rushing yardage per game (146.2) in the league.
  • Opposing teams have run the ball on 64.9 percent of their 4th quarter plays versus the Browns, the highest rate in the league.
  • 47.5 percent of the points allowed to quarterbacks by the Browns have been through passing touchdowns, the highest percentage in the league.
  • 23.2 percent of Tyrod Taylor's fantasy output has come through passing touchdowns, the lowest percentage in the league.

 

Trust: LeSean McCoy (this is as good as it gets in terms of matchup for a home team that wants to run the ball as much as they can)

 

Bust: Terrelle Pryor (the sample is still small, but Pryor hasn’t been able to produce in either game Robert Griffin has played), Corey Coleman (since returning from injury, just 16 of his 42 targets have resulted in a reception), Robert Griffin (he’s completed just 12 passes in each of his two starts), Duke Johnson (he hasn’t cracked the top-30 in five straight games and with Griffin taking over, backfield receptions will remain scarce for the backfield)

 

Reasonable Return: Tyrod Taylor (it’s a great matchup, but Taylor’s ceiling isn’t much higher than his floor most weeks and he shouldn’t be asked to do much lifting through the air here), Sammy Watkins (he had 25 percent of the targets over the past two weeks and anything the Bills do through the air should run through him), Mike Gillislee (this is a spot where you can flex Gillislee in for touchdown appeal as well as increased volume if script goes as planned), Isaiah Crowell (he had more rushing yards last week than he had over his five previous games combined, but still only had 10 carries, something that is hard to latch onto, but Buffalo has been run on three weeks in a row and it’s the only way Cleveland can hope to generate consistent offense)

 

Detroit vs. New York (NFC)


LionsRank@GiantsRank
4.5   Spread -4.5  
18.5   Implied Total 23.0  
60.6 29 Plays/Gm 61.5 25
59.9 2 Opp. Plays/Gm 68.8 31
36.8% 26 Rush% 37.6% 25
63.2% 7 Pass% 62.4% 8
38.0% 9 Opp. Rush % 37.3% 8
62.0% 24 Opp. Pass % 62.8% 25

 

  • New York hasn't allowed more than two touchdowns in a game in nine straight games while Detroit hasn't allowed more than two touchdowns in seven straight, the two longest streaks in the league.
  • The Giants have averaged 263.3 yards on offense over the past three weeks, 31st in the league.
  • Odell Beckham has 38.9 percent of the team targets over the past three weeks, up from 25.4 percent prior.
  • Beckham is averaging 101.7 receiving yards per game at home as opposed to 66.2 yards per game on the road.
  • Beckham is 19th in the league in first half receiving yardage (450 yards), but is second in the league with 674 receiving yards after the half.
  • Eli Manning has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three straight games for the first time since 2008.
  • Just 13.9 percent of Matthew Stafford's pass attempts are throws 15 yards or further downfield, the third lowest rate in the league behind Sam Bradford (13.8 percent) and Alex Smith (13.4 percent).
  • The Giants have faced the most pass attempts in the league and have allowed the second fewest touchdowns and 6th fewest passing points in the league.

 

Trust: Odell Beckham (he’s starting to get jammed with extra targets and has been a much stronger play at home so far on the season)

 

Bust: Matthew Stafford (between his finger injury, being on the road in potentially subpar conditions with a low total against the Giants pass defense, it’s hard to expect Stafford to deliver to the levels in which he has for the season), Eli Manning (he’s been a top-12 scorer just three times all season and has thrown for 250 yards just once over his past seven games), Anquan Boldin (a touchdown dependent option facing a team that is stingy at allowing passing scores), Eric Ebron (he’s hasn’t been inside of the top-15 for three straight weeks), Rashad Jennings (he hasn’t reached 60 yards from scrimmage in three straight games), Dwayne Washington (if he starts again, he's no more than a flex option against and doesn't carry the same receiving weight that a player like Riddick has)

 

Reasonable Return: Golden Tate (he has just one week with single digit scoring over his past eight games, so his floor is steady even if the matchup isn’t ideal), Theo Riddick (if he’s cleared, he jumps right back into being a floor RB2 and has a chance to see negative game script for the first time in several weeks)

 


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Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. You can find him on Twitter @LordReebs.
Email :Rich Hribar



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