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Ryan Knaus

The Numbers Game

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NBA Top-200: 8-cat, 9-cat, PTS

Wednesday, January 2, 2019


With the changing of the calendar, it's a perfect time to consider fantasy players' success, or lack thereof, in 2018. Every team has played at least 35 games and we're in the middle of Week 12, which means we're more than halfway through the fantasy hoops regular season in head-to-head playoff formats -- or 42.7% complete in roto leagues.

 

I'm listing the top 200 players this week (based on 8-cat values) to include more deep-league options and to highlight those who have fallen lower than expected on draft day. We’re talking guys like Gordon Hayward, Dennis Smith Jr., Goran Dragic and Jonathan Isaac, among many others.

 

Before getting to the lists, which include separate values for 8-cat, 9-cat and Points leagues, let's look at some broader takeaways through Jan. 2, beginning with total games played.

 

39 games - Raptors

38 games - 76ers, Nets, Knicks, Warriors, Blazers, Spurs, Jazz, Pelicans, Suns

37 games - Pacers, Wizards, Bulls, Cavs, Clippers, Lakers, Kings, Wolves

36 games - Bucks, Celtics, Hornets, Magic, Hawks, Thunder, Rockets, Grizzlies, Mavericks

35 games - Heat, Pistons, Nuggets

 

The Raptors have four fewer games remaining than three other teams, which isn't great news if you own guys like Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka. How impactful the differences will be depends largely on your format. In roto leagues with limits per position, getting four extra games from Andre Drummond may not matter much if you're up against an 82-game cap. It also hinges on the timing of playoffs in head-to-head leagues. If your fantasy playoffs are scheduled for Weeks 22-25, the Kings are the best team to own with four consecutive four-game weeks in that span. Stock up on your Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox ownership! For more insights about the schedule, check out the Season Pass schedule grid and schedule breakdown...it's an invaluable annual feature.

 

I'd also like to highlight position disparities for these top-200 players.

 

PG

47

SG

41

SF

44

PF

33

C

35

 

I used ESPN eligibility and for guys with dual-eligibility, I chose the position at which they've played most of their minutes (per Basketball-Reference). The most obvious takeaway for me was how thin PFs have been this season, a situation that would look even more dire if Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James weren't hitting elite value with PF eligibility. There are fewer PFs in the top 200 than any other category and their overall value lags behind with the exception of the middle rounds (players 15-25). There are also far more point guards in the top-200 than I would have anticipated, since both PG and C tend to be the scarcest positions for fantasy. It will be interesting to see if this trend holds through the second half of the season -- if so, we'll have to analyze just why and how PGs became more readily available as fantasy assets.

 

Here's a more detailed picture of the position-specific situation (using 9-cat values).

 

 

Players who did not make the top-200 cut include Collin Sexton, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Mike Muscala, Mo Bamba, Stanley Johnson, Allen Crabbe, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Josh Jackson, Kevin Knox, Avery Bradley, and of course Boban. The only real surprise for me in that list is RHJ, who was actually building some momentum prior to his groin injury on Saturday. It's also a reminder that rookies are a fickle lot -- even when they get reliable playing time, they're often ruined by inefficiency. Here are this season's exceptions:

 

Deandre Ayton: 8-cat...41st, 9-cat...30th, Points leagues...38th

Luka Doncic: 40th, 77th, 41st

Jaren Jackson Jr.: 71st, 70th, 100th

 

Yep, those are the only rookies with top-100 value in any of these formats. Wendell Carter Jr. just misses the mark (107/116/107), and guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (146/156/161) and Mikal Bridges (161/134/184) have only been sporadically useful. This isn't to say more rookies won't be useful as the season progresses -- high draft picks tend to play for bad teams, and they're often unleashed late in the year. It's just the latest reminder that rookies are typically hard to trust for fantasy purposes. Of course, there are always expectations like Ayton or Doncic.

 

Editor's Note: Looking for an edge when it comes to fantasy hoops? Our new NBA DFS Toolkit has a Lineup Optimizer, Customizable Projections, Next Man Up tool and more for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo! And for season-long, the NBA Season Pass provides weekly projections, rankings, Pickups of the Day and more.
 

Last but obviously not least, here are the top-200 ranks! (Technically it's the top-197 because I initially failed to eliminate some fluky players who appeared in only a handful of games.)

 

Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
James Harden 14.09 9.75 55.16
Anthony Davis 12.92 12.53 61.77
Stephen Curry 10.78 9.39 45.05
Kevin Durant 10.10 8.22 48.87
Paul George 9.46 8.27 48.23
Giannis Antetokounmpo 8.09 5.25 55.10
Karl-Anthony Towns 7.80 6.31 46.16
Kawhi Leonard 7.65 7.36 45.86
Joel Embiid 7.41 5.46 51.61
Kyrie Irving 6.98 6.07 42.64
Damian Lillard 6.91 5.83 42.54
Nikola Jokic 6.64 5.01 44.58
Kemba Walker 6.10 5.33 43.07
LeBron James 5.90 4.02 50.56
Nikola Vucevic 5.75 5.50 44.29
Jrue Holiday 5.73 3.48 42.96
Russell Westbrook 5.69 2.37 53.28
Devin Booker 5.12 2.64 40.80
Bradley Beal 4.53 3.65 40.27
Kyle Lowry 4.39 3.32 37.30
Marc Gasol 4.38 4.00 39.59
Jimmy Butler 4.37 4.80 36.82
Chris Paul 4.25 2.91 36.62
Will Barton 3.88 4.25 30.00
Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
Robert Covington 3.46 4.02 30.90
Zach LaVine 3.46 1.19 36.48
Blake Griffin 3.36 0.90 42.50
Mike Conley 3.33 3.42 37.85
John Wall 3.27 0.92 41.55
Danilo Gallinari 3.24 3.84 32.26
Tobias Harris 3.17 3.09 35.20
DeMar DeRozan 3.16 2.51 41.37
Victor Oladipo 3.14 2.47 39.41
Rudy Gobert 2.67 3.08 39.96
Deandre Ayton 2.61 2.62 36.51
De'Aaron Fox 2.54 1.09 37.52
Clint Capela 2.48 2.73 40.06
Khris Middleton 2.20 1.61 32.28
Luka Doncic 2.07 0.18 35.60
Nikola Mirotic 2.02 2.70 32.97
Jusuf Nurkic 2.00 1.38 36.74
Myles Turner 1.99 2.20 32.78
Ben Simmons 1.89 0.06 41.91
Draymond Green 1.84 0.50 31.44
LaMarcus Aldridge 1.78 1.81 37.42
T.J. Warren 1.77 2.47 30.33
Josh Richardson 1.75 1.64 32.02
Eric Bledsoe 1.65 1.24 32.04
Andre Drummond 1.63 0.88 44.83
Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
JaVale McGee 1.57 1.83 29.45
Klay Thompson 1.45 1.57 32.89
Pascal Siakam 1.29 1.44 30.05
Lauri Markkanen 1.25 1.38 31.25
Buddy Hield 1.24 1.03 30.18
Jayson Tatum 1.21 1.49 30.58
Al Horford 1.19 1.50 30.21
D'Angelo Russell 1.18 -0.11 32.97
Serge Ibaka 1.16 1.25 31.11
Justin Holiday 1.16 1.80 26.43
DeAndre Jordan 1.08 0.41 33.98
Kent Bazemore 0.91 0.56 28.51
Jamal Murray 0.88 0.09 32.73
Domantas Sabonis 0.78 -0.04 31.65
Donovan Mitchell 0.70 -0.31 32.62
Derrick Rose 0.51 0.59 30.71
Tim Hardaway Jr. 0.47 0.15 30.18
Trevor Ariza 0.45 0.59 27.00
Malcolm Brogdon 0.44 0.54 26.49
Brook Lopez 0.43 1.40 24.96
Rudy Gay 0.40 0.79 28.11
Julius Randle 0.39 -0.37 36.28
Larry Nance Jr. 0.34 0.97 28.68
Kevin Love 0.34 -0.47 40.20
Otto Porter 0.27 1.37 26.72
Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
C.J. McCollum 0.19 0.39 31.37
Ricky Rubio 0.17 -1.34 28.44
Marcus Morris 0.17 0.67 25.98
Jaren Jackson Jr. 0.12 0.43 26.56
John Collins 0.04 -0.47 34.33
Jeff Teague 0.00 -0.62 28.98
Lou Williams -0.03 -0.78 28.27
Taurean Prince -0.03 -0.92 25.08
Kyle Kuzma -0.03 -0.12 30.84
Paul Millsap -0.04 0.31 30.02
Aaron Gordon -0.07 -0.07 32.11
Enes Kanter -0.07 -0.07 30.79
Dewayne Dedmon -0.10 0.40 25.49
Caris LeVert -0.10 -0.49 31.64
Spencer Dinwiddie -0.18 -0.64 28.88
Kris Dunn -0.18 -1.04 30.55
Joe Ingles -0.24 -0.64 26.49
Bojan Bogdanovic -0.30 -0.32 24.31
Jeremy Lamb -0.36 0.77 28.05
Nemanja Bjelica -0.37 0.15 25.05
J.J. Redick -0.57 -0.01 25.12
Harrison Barnes -0.65 -0.20 27.10
Steven Adams -0.68 -0.35 35.47
Jarrett Allen -0.81 -0.34 28.04
Gary Harris -0.82 -0.02 27.63
Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
Montrezl Harrell -0.94 -0.39 31.75
Dennis Schroder -0.96 -2.04 28.14
Trae Young -0.96 -3.56 29.49
Bogdan Bogdanovic -1.06 -0.85 26.69
Lonzo Ball -1.06 -1.46 26.58
Joe Harris -1.20 -0.71 21.98
Darren Collison -1.22 -0.83 24.49
Hassan Whiteside -1.23 -1.05 37.67
Jerami Grant -1.26 -0.17 25.17
Wendell Carter Jr. -1.27 -1.01 26.27
Marcus Smart -1.28 -0.81 21.99
Jonas Valanciunas -1.32 -0.75 25.06
Noah Vonleh -1.37 -0.81 25.89
Cody Zeller -1.44 -0.78 23.45
Tristan Thompson -1.44 -1.04 31.20
Reggie Jackson -1.47 -1.69 25.20
Danny Green -1.48 -0.67 20.37
Kyle Anderson -1.56 -0.87 24.69
JaMychal Green -1.63 -1.40 22.55
Evan Fournier -1.63 -2.01 25.50
Al-Farouq Aminu -1.71 -0.56 23.42
Gordon Hayward -1.74 -1.14 23.92
Jordan Clarkson -1.76 -1.58 25.33
Thaddeus Young -1.76 -0.96 26.45
Iman Shumpert -1.78 -0.58 20.44
Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
Derrick Favors -1.79 -1.06 26.00
Jeff Green -1.80 -1.01 21.41
D.J. Augustin -1.82 -1.33 21.49
Dennis Smith Jr. -1.92 -3.50 24.02
Nicolas Batum -1.94 -1.66 22.19
Andrew Wiggins -2.01 -1.83 28.32
Wesley Matthews -2.12 -1.59 22.44
Willie Cauley-Stein -2.14 -1.47 31.89
Kelly Oubre Jr. -2.15 -1.28 22.70
Goran Dragic -2.16 -3.04 26.69
Justise Winslow -2.18 -2.59 25.66
Garrett Temple -2.27 -1.38 19.74
Terrence Ross -2.33 -1.43 21.72
Marvin Williams -2.33 -0.83 22.12
Jabari Parker -2.34 -3.29 27.31
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -2.42 -2.29 20.92
P.J. Tucker -2.43 -1.31 20.99
Juan Hernangomez -2.43 -1.23 20.69
Emmanuel Mudiay -2.45 -2.63 25.30
Markieff Morris -2.46 -1.94 22.72
Rajon Rondo -2.52 -2.90 24.46
Monte Morris -2.55 -1.29 22.07
Jae Crowder -2.64 -1.65 22.65
Taj Gibson -2.65 -1.62 23.71
Fred VanVleet -2.67 -1.99 21.90
Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
Josh Hart -2.67 -1.55 19.61
Kelly Olynyk -2.72 -2.21 20.08
Tyler Johnson -2.77 -2.31 21.37
Nerlens Noel -2.79 -1.43 18.25
Mikal Bridges -2.79 -1.52 18.06
Cory Joseph -2.83 -2.15 20.61
Jonathan Isaac -2.84 -2.00 20.00
Rodney Hood -2.84 -1.70 20.86
Jeremy Lin -2.93 -2.96 19.17
Bryn Forbes -2.94 -2.22 19.57
Dario Saric -2.98 -2.44 21.17
Ryan Arcidiacono -3.00 -1.91 18.09
Elfrid Payton -3.01 -3.56 23.74
Bam Adebayo -3.14 -2.52 22.13
Reggie Bullock -3.15 -2.45 18.71
Marvin Bagley III -3.19 -3.00 24.15
E'Twaun Moore -3.22 -2.43 20.89
Rodney McGruder -3.23 -2.68 20.76
Eric Gordon -3.27 -2.90 23.13
Dwyane Wade -3.31 -3.78 25.39
DeAndre' Bembry -3.38 -3.10 21.47
T.J. McConnell -3.50 -2.94 16.69
Tyreke Evans -3.51 -3.68 20.20
Thomas Bryant -3.53 -2.09 17.83
De'Anthony Melton -3.54 -3.25 16.91
Name 8-cat 9-cat NBA Official Points
Carmelo Anthony -3.67 -2.47 23.13
Mitchell Robinson -3.70 -2.23 17.24
Derrick White -3.70 -3.27 18.35
J.J. Barea -3.74 -3.88 22.80
Richaun Holmes -3.74 -2.58 17.84
Davis Bertans -3.82 -2.34 14.89
Cedi Osman -3.89 -3.63 21.86
Dorian Finney-Smith -3.89 -2.70 17.80
Bobby Portis -3.90 -3.46 25.54
Pau Gasol -3.90 -2.58 20.40
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -3.91 -2.70 19.17
Mason Plumlee -3.92 -3.70 22.19
Kevin Huerter -3.92 -3.43 16.97
Dwight Howard -3.92 -3.87 26.40
Malik Monk -3.93 -3.26 17.18
Patty Mills -3.95 -3.14 17.10
Andre Iguodala -3.97 -2.79 17.64
Terry Rozier -4.03 -2.84 19.68
Moe Harkless -4.03 -2.63 17.00
Maxi Kleber -4.20 -2.76 16.42
Jaylen Brown -4.20 -3.69 21.81
Brandon Ingram -4.41 -4.99 26.44
Alex Len -4.54 -4.24 20.18

 

Use these values as a guideline for expectations, with the understanding that it reflects the entirety of what's happened from mid-October through early January. If you have any questions or insights, you can always find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW. I'm also happy to consider new and interesting topics for future columns, so send me a Direct Message, Tweet or email if you have a question you'd like to see answered. Good luck this week!



Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.
Email :Ryan Knaus



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