Tommy Beer

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Tommy Beer’s Top 150

Tuesday, October 2, 2018


We have reached October, and with opening night less than three weeks away, ‘tis the season for fantasy basketball drafts.


Below I have ranked my top 150 players for the 2018-19 campaign based on nine-category (points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers) roto scoring formats.


For additional rankings from my esteemed colleagues (as well as over 300 player profiles, schedule grids, position tiers, mock drafts, injury reports and a treasure trove of other invaluable resources), check out the incomparable 2018 NBA Draft Guide.

 

1. Anthony Davis, PF/C - As long as he’s healthy, Davis is far and away the most dominant fantasy basketball player on the planet.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, C - KAT is entering the start of his prime, has never missed a game in his career, and will see his usage rate and production spike if/when Jimmy Butler is traded.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/SF - In 2016-17, Giannis ranked in the NBA’s top-20 in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, which no player in NBA history had ever done.
4. James Harden, SG/PG - Last season, Harden joined Michael Jordan (1987-88) as the only the second player ever to average over 30.0 points, 8.0 dimes, 5.0 boards and 1.5 steals.
5. Stephen Curry, PG - Curry is one of 8 players with three titles and multiple MVPs (Kareem, Bill Russell, MJ, LeBron, Magic, Larry Bird and Tim Duncan).
6. Kevin Durant, SF/PF - KD averaged 28.8 points (.526 FG%, .409 3PT%, .963 FT%), 10.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 2.0 blocks per game in the 2018 Finals.
7. LeBron James, SF/PF - Last season, LeBron became the first player ever to average at least 25 points, eight boards and eight dimes while also shooting over 54 percent from the floor.
8. Nikola Jokic, C - Jokic also averaged 6.1 assists in 2017-18, joining Wilt Chamberlain as just the second center in NBA history to average more than six assists per game.
9. Damian Lillard, PG - Dame is one of only 4 in NBA history w/ at least 10,000 points and 2,900 assists in their first six seasons. (Oscar Robertson, Tiny Archibald, LeBron James.)
10. Victor Oladipo, SG -’Dipo finished the regular season collecting at least one steal in 64 consecutive games, which is tied for the fourth-longest streak in NBA history.
11. Paul George, SF - With Melo in HOU, George should see an increase in scoring opportunities. With improved efficiency, he’ll return first-round value, as he did in 2016-17.
12. Kawhi Leonard, SF - When fully healthy in 2016-17, Kawhi finished ranked fourth overall in nine-cat leagues. Looked sharp in his preseason debut.
13. Joel Embiid, C - This pick comes with great risk due to his worrisome injury history, but Embiid’s ceiling is off the charts. TTP!
14. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF - Even in a “down” year last season, Jimmy Buckets finished inside the top-12 in nine-cat leagues. His value could jump if traded away from Minnesota.
15. Chris Paul, PG - There was some concern if CP3 could mesh playing alongside Harden, but it was a non-issue last season. Mike D’Antoni’s offense is fantasy nirvana.
16. Jrue Holiday, PG/SG - Jrue was a beast in 2017-18, and greatly benefited from New Orleans playing at the fastest pace in the league. The Pels averaged 102.7 possessions per 48 minutes.
17. Kevin Love, PF/C - Love averaged 27.5 points, 14.9 boards, 1.2 steals and 2.0 treys per-36 minutes with LeBron off the floor last season.
18. Rudy Gobert, C - There is a shortage of quality centers, and Gobert is the last top-tier C on the board, boosting his appeal.

19. Kemba Walker, PG - My only concern with Kemba is a potential mid-season trade. Moving out of Charlotte would almost certainly reduce his usage rate and fantasy value.
20. Kyrie Irving, PG - Kyrie was on pace to finish 14th overall last season before being sidelined by a knee injury. He’ll be motivated to prove he’s worth a max contract this year.
21. Ben Simmons, PG/SF - If you are planning to punt 3-pointers or FT percentage, then bump Simmons up on your cheat sheet.
22. Kyle Lowry, PG - Finished last season ranked inside the top-30 despite averaging just 32.2 minutes per game. With DeRozan out of the picture, Lowry’s production should increase.
23. Russell Westbrook, PG - The triple-doubles are cool but Russ finished outside the top-20 in nine-cat leagues last season, and now he’s coming off arthroscopic surgery on his right knee.
24. Khris Middleton, SF - Underrated stud entering his prime. In the 2018 postseason, he averaged 25.7 points (on 57% shooting), 9.6 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.4 steals.
25. Bradley Beal, SG - Last season, Beal started all 82 games last season and notched career highs in minutes, FG’s, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and points.
26. John Wall, PG - Wall appeared in just 41 contests last season and saw his scoring and assist averages dip. Can he bounce back to elite status in 2018-19?
27. Andre Drummond, C - Drummond became the first player w/ at least 1,000 points, 1,000 boards, 200 dimes, 100 steals and 100 blocks in a season since Kevin Garnett in 2004-05.
28. Otto Porter Jr., SF - Porter nearly improved his FG percentage, 3PT percentage, scoring and rebounding averages for a fifth consecutive season in 2017-18. Underrated fantasy asset.
29. Draymond Green, PF/C - Only two players in NBA history have averaged better than seven boards, seven assists, one steal and one block per game over a full season: LeBron and Draymond.
30. Eric Bledsoe, PG - Over his final 30 games, Bledsoe averaged 19.8 points, 6.4 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 2.1 treys and 1.9 steals, shooting a 52.1% from the floor and 40.5% from downtown.
31. Klay Thompson, SG - Dating back to the start of the 2014-15 season, Klay has played in 391 games, the most in the NBA over that span.
32. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C - Aldridge finished last season ranked 18th overall, but I’m worried about the arrival DeMar DeRozan eating into his scoring opportunities.
33. Tobias Harris, PF - In 32 games for L.A., Harris averaged 19.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 triples, 1.2 steals and just 1.7 turnovers. He’s still just 26 years old.
34. Gordon Hayward, SF/SG - In 2016-17, Hayward averaged 21.9 points per game (on 53.6 percent shooting), 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Don’t sleep.
35. Gary Harris, SG - Harris tends to fly under the radar, but his versatility allows him to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis.
36. Clint Capela, C - Last season Capela led the NBA in field goal percentage (.652), ranked second in blocks (1.9), and eighth in rebounding (10.8).
37. C.J. McCollum, SG - McCollum didn’t quite live up to expectations last season, but did rank 28th overall in 2016-17. His efficient game leads to a reliably high floor.
38. Donovan Mitchell, SG - I’m fully aware ranking Mitchell this low means I won’t land him in any draft. And I’m okay with that, as I don’t think he returns value at his inflated ADP. (I explain why here)
39. Devin Booker, SG - He’s injury-prone and drags down your FG percentage and turnover categories. I’m not willing to invest the necessary draft capital necessary to snag him.
40. Blake Griffin, PF - Griffin was was one of just four players to average over 20 points, seven rebounds and five dimes in 2017-18. (Russell Westbrook, LeBron and DeMarcus Cousins)
41. Al Horford, C - Horford struggled towards the end of the season, but still led the Celtics in total rebounds, assists and blocks in 2017-18.
42. Marc Gasol, C - Gasol was one of two NBA players (LeBron James) to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists and blocks last season.
43. DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF - Difficult to project DeRozan’s production due to the move from Toronto to San Antonio, but his floor is high due to his steady offensive production.
44. Myles Turner, C - After an incredibly promising 2016-17 campaign (14.5 points on 51.1% shooting, 7.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks), Turner took a step back last season. Bounce back?
45. Mike Conley, PG - Please give me all the shares of Conley this year. When he was healthy in 2016-17, he ranked 23rd overall in nine-category fantasy leagues.
46. Robert Covington, SF - RoCo is built for fantasy success; however, I’m a bit concerned his playing time may decrease a bit in 2018-19, as Philly added Wilson Chandler this offseason.
47. Will Barton, SF/SG - Barton played 35+ minutes 31 times in 2017-18 and averaged 19.8 points, 6.0 boards, 4.6 assists and 1.4 steals in those 31 contests. Starter this season.
48. Jamal Murray, PG - Still just 21 years of age, Murray is just beginning to scratch the surface of his prodigious potential.
49. Aaron Gordon, PF - In Orlando’s wins last season, Gordon averaged 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists, while shooting 50.4% from the floor and 41.7% from 3-point territory.
50. Josh Richardson, SF - In 2017-18, J-Rich became just the fourth player in NBA history with at least 220 assists, 120 made 3-pointers, 120 steals and 75 blocks in one season.


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