Stephen Keech

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NBA Daily Plays: Friday

Friday, February 9, 2018


Welcome back to the Friday edition of NBA Top Plays! We have nine games on tap tonight and with the trade deadline having just passed, this is an important night to make sure you’re up to date on new roles and rotations.

 

 

As always, make sure to check out RotoGrinders' DFS Alerts App to stay informed, and tune into the RotoGrinders Court Report at 6:00 EST through lock to get updated thoughts on the night ahead as news comes in.

 

 

Point Guard – Jamal Murray

 

The first few days after the deadline can present some value due to recently acquired players not being cleared to suit up until they’ve passed physicals. Denver acquired Devin Harris from the Mavericks yesterday and sent Emmanuel Mudiay to the Knicks, but it’s expected that Harris will sit out tonight as he gets settled with his new team. Mudiay had been a member of the rotation recently with Malik Beasley and Monte Morris (G-League mostly) not factoring in, but with Mudiay gone it’s very possible we see Murray climb up towards 38-40 minutes this evening. If this game stays close – and it has some massive stacking potential if it does – I have a tough time imagining Mike Malone giving either Beasley or Morris meaningful minutes in the back-court. Murray is moderately priced across the industry but does have a sky-high ceiling when his shot is falling. Given the lack of depth behind him, this is a play I can get behind in cash games as well as tournaments.

 

 

Shooting Guard – Jrue Holiday

 

This Pelicans/Sixers tilt is another contest with some stacking appeal. The Pelicans have been playing at a blazing pace since Cousins went down and they were a bottom five defense with him on the floor, so that doesn’t really figure to improve going forward. Holiday gets a small boost from the fact that the Pelicans are going to try starting DeAndre Liggins at SG with Rajon Rondo coming off the bench, leading to a little more ball-handling for Jrue, who was drafted by the Sixers and played his first few seasons in Philly. The Sixers also lead the league in turnovers which gives he and Anthony Davis a nice shot at racking up some quick points off steals/blocks, and if Joel Embiid can’t go it would only further solidify the spot for New Orleans, as Philly struggles defensively without him. I completely understand the appeal of LeBron and the short-handed Cavs tonight and I’ll have exposure there myself, but there is definitely merit to looking in a different direction for stacking in GPPs. An AD/Jrue pairing with a handful of Sixers is a fine way to start a tournament team.

 

 

Small Forward – LeBron James

 

If you can only spend up on one stud in cash games, LeBron is absolutely your guy. He’s probably also the top option for tournaments, but the ownership is likely to be high enough that there is merit to fading from a game theory perspective. It’s looking like the Cavs new additions – Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance, George Hill and Rodney Hood – won’t be in uniform tonight, which is going to lead to James running with a bevy of backups. Cleveland is going to start James alongside Calderon, JR Smith, Cedi Osman and Tristan Thompson, and while that unit hasn’t played together this year, it’s obvious that James is going to have to do all the heavy lifting offensively. He’s the top overall play across all positions and has one of his better shots at a monster triple-double tonight. You can also attack the SF spot with some Cleveland value if you prefer to pay up elsewhere (Green, Korver, Osman).

 

 

Power Forward – Jeff Green

 

I’d expect Green to be the most popular value play on this slate, and for good reason. I actually like that he’s coming off the bench – I don’t think his playing time will be impacted that much (I’d still slot him into the 28-32 minute range) and if he’s able to find the floor for the 8-10 minutes LeBron sits, he figures to be the key offensive cog in that scenario. Green owns a healthy 25.1% usage rate and 0.81 FPPM mark with LeBron on the floor and Love/Wade/Thomas off, and I ran the query that way given that I’d expect Green to play most of his minutes alongside James in this one. Correctly dissecting the Cavs rotation is probably going to be one of the keys to victory in GPPs, and while avoiding the Cleveland value may end up being the strategy, I’m going to have a really hard time avoiding Green due to his salary and upside with the Cavs so shorthanded.

 

 

Center – Anthony Davis

 

I feel like I’ve made this point already but in case it hasn’t been clear, I really like the idea of looking away from the CLE/ATL tilt in GPPs. The NO/PHI and DEN/HOU tilts are my favorite spots outside of Atlanta and I think you can stack up the high-end plays from those games while still looking to Cleveland for some value. Davis and Holiday burned quite a few people the other night – of course by no fault of their own – due to the rainout, and with LeBron being so heavily discussed this could be a slate where Davis goes overlooked, especially on DraftKings where rostering LeBron is going to make it really tough to fit in another five-figure salary. Davis has topped 57 FD points in six of his last eight games and he’s got a nice shot to keep that going, especially if Embiid isn’t able to play.



Stephen "SBK" Keech is a head-to-head specialist who has shot up to being ranked in the Top 100 for Overall, MLB, NBA, and NHL. SBK’s a lead contributor on RotoGrinders, and can be found on Twitter @StephByronKeech.
Email :Stephen Keech



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