Renee Miller

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FanDuel Bargain Bin Thursday

Thursday, February 8, 2018


FanDuel Bargain Bin

 

Today’s Thursday NBA slate has six good games with high point totals and four narrow spreads. We have a lot of exciting, fast-paced action to choose from tonight, and plenty of value. In this column, I generally set $6000 as the bargain threshold, and I try to indicate when I think a position is particularly well-suited--or not--to using the cheap plays given the landscape of the particular slate.

 

 

 

Point Guard

 

Tomas Satoransky $4700: There’s a notable price drop here, making me consider Satoransky in a bad matchup. Boston is a strong defensive team, ranking first overall in defensive efficiency and playing at a slower pace than the Wizards. However, Satoransky saves his fantasy value by providing two steals per game (in each of the last five games) while averaging close to 10 points, five assists and three rebounds per game in 25-28 MPG.

 

Shelvin Mack $4500: Mack is certainly not without risk tonight, but he has averaged 25 fantasy points in four of the past five games. He gets a top 10 matchup in what should be a high scoring and close game. His shooting hasn’t been great over this stretch, which I actually like because the rebounds and assists give him a higher floor, making the points more upside.  

 

Delon Wright $4400: The Raptors have shown the propensity to give Wright more minutes in blowouts, and this game has the widest spread of the night, with Toronto being favored by 13.5 points over the Knicks. New York was already the best PG matchup on the slate (sixth-best in the league), and Wright has come up big in the last three contests playing 22-24 minutes. He has seven steals in the last two games!

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Devin Harris $3800: I’m really high on Harris tonight. He’s posted over 20 fantasy points in three games straight, as well as twice vs. the Warriors earlier this season.  Golden State ranks sixth overall in defensive efficiency, but offers a nice pace bump and gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to two-guards. If this game turns into as big a blowout as Vegas expects, Harris would likely get the 20-plus minutes he needs to exceed value.

 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4700: Maybe KCP is the winner of the LA-Cleveland trade tonight. With Jordan Clarkson out of the way, he should pick up both minutes and shot attempts. His efficiency has been in the toilet lately, but perhaps this lineup shake up will rattle him out of the slump. The loss of Andre Roberson has made things a bit easier on opposing wings lately, as the Thunder now rank fifth in fantasy points allowed to SG and SF over the last five games.

 

Tim Hardaway Jr. $6000: While Michael Beasley and Kyle O’Quinn (see below) will be the talk of the DFS town today, don’t forget that Hardaway has a lot of fantasy potential in Kristaps Porzingis’ absence too. There are some big shoes to fill in New York, and I think a surprise 40 fantasy point game from Hardaway tonight is a real possibility.

 

 

Small Forward

 

 

Mario Hezonja $5400: Hezonja would benefit from Jonathan Simmons ($5800), who was a game time decision Tuesday but played and stole the show, being out tonight with that sore ankle. However, even with Simmons having the game of the season, Hezonja wasn’t terrible, finishing with another 20-plus fantasy point game. The Magic take on another weak defensive opponent in the Hawks tonight, who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

 

 

Power Forward

 

Kyle Kuzma $4700: The trade of Larry Nance Jr. does open the frontcourt of the Lakers a bit, allowing Kuzma to potentially pick up 5-10 more minutes a night, which could get him regularly near 30 MPG. Julius Randle has been terrific lately, but Kuzma is the bargain play tonight.

 

Ed Davis $3800: Davis is too volatile to trust in cash games, but if he plays the magic 20 minutes or more, he’s a fantasy beast. He recently had a stretch of four double-digit rebound games, and is coming off another one at Detroit Monday night. During the last six games, Davis also has four multi-block games. Jusef Nurkic struggled in this matchup the first time, so Davis could earn some extra minutes if he’s providing the necessary defense.

 

Jerami Grant $5200: If Carmelo Anthony is out, which doesn’t sound too likely, I’d consider Grant tonight. There are a lot of questions at this position, so keep a few options open as news comes out later in the day.

 

Center

 

Kyle O’Quinn $4000: My chalk play of the day is O’Quinn, who has a very efficient fantasy point per minute ratio, going all the way back to his Orlando Magic days. He’s now the only big man in play for the Knicks tonight, virtually ensuring a 30-plus minute game. That makes him a strong 8-10X value play, even in a traditionally tough matchup.

 



Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist and has been a daily fantasy sports fanatic since 2011. She is the author of "Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team?". You can find her on twitter @reneemiller01.
Email :Renee Miller



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