Ryan Knaus

The Numbers Game

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Fantasy Hoops Draft Recap

Wednesday, January 10, 2018


A fantasy hoops draft in January? Yes!

 

The NBA has been promoting the idea of mid-season drafts with simple settings, so the Rotoworld hoops crew decided to organize a draft at Yahoo! Sports. Drafting a team is one of the most exhilarating parts of being a fantasy owner, and this time was no different. In fact, it went from being a 'mock' draft to everyone deciding to play it out, with bragging rights and a cash prize for the winner.

 

If you want to start your own winter fantasy hoops league, click here to get started!

 

Before looking at the results of our draft, here are the league settings:

 

 

Scoring: H2H points. NBA 'official' points system (PTS = 1, REB = 1.2, AST = 1.5, STL = 3, BLK = 3, TO = -1)

Lineups: Weekly (lock on Monday)

Rosters: 13 players, 10 active (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util x2, Bench x3)

Draft Type: Snake

Playoffs: Weeks 22-24

Injury List: Yes, one spot

 

Editor's Note: Looking for an edge in your fantasy leagues? The NBA Season Pass provides weekly projections, rankings, the popular Pickups of the Day column, exclusive columns and customizable stat options. It's the extra tool that can take your fantasy basketball teams to the next level.

 

 

A few more notes:

 

1) This points-league system doesn't penalize percentages at all, and turnovers aren't nearly as damaging as they are in typical category-based leagues. As such, you'll see a lot of players with FG% or FT% issues (Dwight Howard, Lonzo Ball, etc.) going higher than usual.


2) We did have an IR spot, which combined with the weekly lineups made it more palatable to stash injured players.

 

3) To give a sense of player values, I've included their 'fantasy points per game' for the full season and the past month.

 

Draft Position Player (Positions) Avg. Fantasy Pts (month) Avg. Fantasy Pts (season) Owner
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo (Mil - SF,PF) 50.2 53.9 Ryan Knaus
2 Russell Westbrook (OKC - PG) 59.0 53.6 Jonas Nader
3 James Harden (Hou - PG,SG) 55.3 54.6 Muhammad Lila
4 Karl-Anthony Towns (Min - C) 48.0 43.0 André Snellings
5 Anthony Davis (NO - PF,C) 50.9 49.2 Charles Koo
6 LeBron James (Cle - SF,PF) 53.4 54.4 Renee Miller
7 DeMarcus Cousins (NO - PF,C) 51.0 52.5 Eric Andrews
8 Kevin Durant (GS - SF,PF) 51.0 48.2 Dan Dobish
9 Jimmy Butler (Min - SG,SF) 45.5 40.3 Steve Alexander
10 Stephen Curry (GS - PG,SG) 51.7 46.3 Matthew Stroup
11 Victor Oladipo (Ind - PG,SG) 43.5 42.7 Matthew Stroup
12 Kyrie Irving (Bos - PG,SG) 39.7 38.2 Steve Alexander
13 DeMar DeRozan (Tor - SG,SF) 43.3 40.2 Dan Dobish
14 John Wall (Was - PG) 38.7 40.3 Eric Andrews
15 Nikola Jokic (Den - PF,C) 38.4 38.5 Renee Miller
16 Andre Drummond (Det - PF,C) 42.1 42.9 Charles Koo
17 Joel Embiid (Phi - PF,C) 45.4 45.6 André Snellings
18 Hassan Whiteside (Mia - C) 29.4 34.8 Muhammad Lila
19 Chris Paul (Hou - PG) 44.3 42.1 Jonas Nader
20 Kristaps Porzingis (NY - PF,C) 38.4 39.9 Ryan Knaus
21 Bradley Beal (Was - SG) 40.0 37.2 Ryan Knaus
22 Draymond Green (GS - SF,PF,C) 39.3 37.0 Jonas Nader
23 Paul George (OKC - SG,SF,PF) 36.3 37.9 Muhammad Lila
24 Ben Simmons (Phi - PG,SF,PF) 37.2 42.6 André Snellings
25 Rudy Gobert (Uta - C) 18.5 31.3 Charles Koo
26 Damian Lillard (Por - PG) 36.7 41.5 Renee Miller
27 Marc Gasol (Mem - C) 36.5 38.2 Eric Andrews
28 Klay Thompson (GS - SG,SF) 30.9 31.6 Dan Dobish
29 DeAndre Jordan (LAC - C) 38.6 34.6 Steve Alexander
30 LaMarcus Aldridge (SA - PF,C) 39.3 39.3 Matthew Stroup
31 Blake Griffin (LAC - PF,C) 35.8 40.3 Matthew Stroup
32 Kevin Love (Cle - PF,C) 33.5 35.0 Steve Alexander
33 Tyreke Evans (Mem - PG,SG,SF) 40.0 35.1 Dan Dobish
34 Aaron Gordon (Orl - SF,PF) 33.5 35.1 Eric Andrews
35 Devin Booker (Pho - SG) 37.0 36.6 Renee Miller
36 Eric Bledsoe (Mil - PG,SG) 33.7 33.4 Charles Koo
37 Kawhi Leonard (SA - SG,SF) 30.8 30.8 André Snellings
38 Kemba Walker (Cha - PG) 35.4 36.6 Muhammad Lila
39 Myles Turner (Ind - PF,C) 27.7 30.6 Jonas Nader
40 Kyle Lowry (Tor - PG) 34.7 35.3 Ryan Knaus
41 Lonzo Ball (LAL - PG) 38.8 33.6 Ryan Knaus
42 Clint Capela (Hou - PF,C) 37.2 35.1 Jonas Nader
43 Serge Ibaka (Tor - PF,C) 31.8 27.2 Muhammad Lila
44 Dwight Howard (Cha - PF,C) 35.3 34.6 André Snellings
45 Kris Dunn (Chi - PG,SG) 36.2 32.7 Charles Koo
46 Al Horford (Bos - PF,C) 32.0 33.6 Renee Miller
47 Donovan Mitchell (Uta - PG,SG) 35.4 30.8 Eric Andrews
48 Jayson Tatum (Bos - SF,PF) 26.6 26.7 Dan Dobish
49 Josh Richardson (Mia - PG,SG,SF) 32.8 24.7 Steve Alexander
50 Khris Middleton (Mil - SG,SF) 34.7 34.5 Matthew Stroup
51 Dennis Schroder (Atl - PG) 33.9 34.1 Matthew Stroup
52 Lou Williams (LAC - PG,SG) 36.4 32.7 Steve Alexander
53 Lauri Markkanen (Chi - PF) 26.4 27.8 Dan Dobish
54 C.J. McCollum (Por - PG,SG) 35.9 33.5 Eric Andrews
55 Jrue Holiday (NO - PG,SG) 36.3 33.8 Renee Miller
56 Otto Porter Jr. (Was - SF,PF) 25.6 30.2 Charles Koo
57 Elfrid Payton (Orl - PG) 32.2 29.6 André Snellings
58 Steven Adams (OKC - C) 30.3 30.3 Muhammad Lila
59 Isaiah Thomas (Cle - PG) 17.9 17.9 Jonas Nader
60 Jamal Murray (Den - PG,SG) 33.5 26.0 Ryan Knaus
61 Gary Harris (Den - SG,SF) 32.5 29.4 Ryan Knaus
62 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Bkn - SF,PF) 31.9 29.2 Jonas Nader
63 Kent Bazemore (Atl - SG,SF) 31.0 28.5 Muhammad Lila
64 T.J. Warren (Pho - SF) 33.7 31.7 André Snellings
65 Robert Covington (Phi - SF,PF) 26.7 29.7 Charles Koo
66 Tobias Harris (Det - SF,PF) 29.0 29.3 Renee Miller
67 Jusuf Nurkic (Por - C) 30.5 30.5 Eric Andrews
68 Spencer Dinwiddie (Bkn - PG) 31.2 29.2 Dan Dobish
69 Dario Saric (Phi - SF,PF,C) 33.6 27.0 Steve Alexander
70 Nikola Vucevic (Orl - PF,C) 38.0 38.0 Matthew Stroup
71 Brandon Ingram (LAL - SG,SF) 29.9 29.8 Matthew Stroup
72 Kyle Kuzma (LAL - SF,PF) 31.0 28.0 Steve Alexander
73 Taj Gibson (Min - PF,C) 27.6 26.8 Dan Dobish
74 Andrew Wiggins (Min - SG,SF) 29.3 29.3 Eric Andrews
75 Eric Gordon (Hou - SG) 28.8 27.0 Renee Miller
76 Marquese Chriss (Pho - PF,C) 21.0 18.9 Charles Koo
77 Willie Cauley-Stein (Sac - PF,C) 30.2 26.6 André Snellings
78 Ricky Rubio (Uta - PG) 25.1 25.6 Muhammad Lila
79 Goran Dragic (Mia - PG,SG) 31.9 30.2 Jonas Nader
80 Caris LeVert (Bkn - PG,SG,SF) 27.6 25.4 Ryan Knaus
81 Jeff Teague (Min - PG) 29.9 30.5 Ryan Knaus
82 D'Angelo Russell (Bkn - PG,SG) n/a 34.5 Jonas Nader
83 Trevor Ariza (Hou - SG,SF) 26.2 25.1 Muhammad Lila
84 Enes Kanter (NY - C) 28.4 29.0 André Snellings
85 James Johnson (Mia - SF,PF) 22.5 25.2 Charles Koo
86 Markelle Fultz (Phi - PG,SG) n/a 12.1 Renee Miller
87 Dennis Smith Jr. (Dal - PG,SG) 27.2 26.1 Eric Andrews
88 Nikola Mirotic (Chi - SF,PF) 30.9 29.3 Dan Dobish
89 Ersan Ilyasova (Atl - SF,PF) 26.5 23.5 Steve Alexander
90 Harrison Barnes (Dal - SF,PF) 29.5 30.5 Matthew Stroup
91 Will Barton (Den - SG,SF) 27.5 29.6 Matthew Stroup
92 De'Aaron Fox (Sac - PG) 19.5 20.5 Steve Alexander
93 Jonas Valanciunas (Tor - C) 26.4 23.1 Dan Dobish
94 Carmelo Anthony (OKC - SF,PF) 25.9 29.5 Eric Andrews
95 Bobby Portis (Chi - PF,C) 24.7 23.5 Renee Miller
96 Delon Wright (Tor - PG,SG) 24.4 20.3 Charles Koo
97 Rajon Rondo (NO - PG) 25.3 25.6 André Snellings
98 Nicolas Batum (Cha - SG,SF) 25.7 24.6 Muhammad Lila
99 Taurean Prince (Atl - SF) 27.5 26.2 Jonas Nader
100 John Collins (Atl - PF,C) 25.5 24.8 Ryan Knaus
101 Julius Randle (LAL - PF,C) 28.5 26.0 Ryan Knaus
102 Darren Collison (Ind - PG,SG) 24.6 26.9 Jonas Nader
103 Domantas Sabonis (Ind - PF,C) 26.8 25.8 Muhammad Lila
104 Michael Beasley (NY - SF,PF) 32.0 20.5 André Snellings
105 Thaddeus Young (Ind - SF,PF) 22.0 26.5 Charles Koo
106 Evan Fournier (Orl - SG,SF) 23.5 27.7 Renee Miller
107 Paul Millsap (Den - PF,C) n/a 32.1 Eric Andrews
108 Zach Randolph (Sac - PF,C) 26.3 27.6 Dan Dobish
109 Trey Lyles (Den - PF) 29.6 19.6 Steve Alexander
110 Justin Holiday (Chi - SG,SF) 25.8 26.5 Matthew Stroup
111 Zach LaVine (Chi - PG,SG) n/a n/a Matthew Stroup
112 Kelly Olynyk (Mia - PF,C) 26.2 22.5 Steve Alexander
113 Malcolm Brogdon (Mil - PG,SG) 24.4 24.0 Dan Dobish
114 Mike Conley (Mem - PG) n/a 28.2 Eric Andrews
115 Tyler Johnson (Mia - PG,SG) 26.6 22.6 Renee Miller
116 John Henson (Mil - PF,C) 24.4 22.9 Charles Koo
117 Markieff Morris (Was - SF,PF,C) 22.4 20.4 André Snellings
118 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL - SG,SF) 25.6 26.8 Muhammad Lila
119 Brook Lopez (LAL - C) 19.7 24.4 Jonas Nader
120 Willy Hernangomez (NY - C) 2.1 9.9 Ryan Knaus
121 J.J. Redick (Phi - SG) 25.5 25.7 Ryan Knaus
122 Bismack Biyombo (Orl - PF,C) 19.6 15.0 Jonas Nader
123 Courtney Lee (NY - SG,SF) 26.2 25.0 Muhammad Lila
124 Jahlil Okafor (Bkn - C) 11.4 11.8 André Snellings
125 Frank Ntilikina (NY - PG) 18.1 16.2 Charles Koo
126 Marcin Gortat (Was - C) 23.1 24.5 Renee Miller
127 Austin Rivers (LAC - PG,SG,SF) 27.6 26.2 Eric Andrews
128 Pau Gasol (SA - PF,C) 25.6 27.7 Dan Dobish
129 Josh Jackson (Pho - SG,SF) 18.6 17.7 Steve Alexander
130 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Cha - SF) 24.4 21.4

Matthew Stroup

 

I went with Giannis Antetokounmpo No. 1 overall, but it was a hard call between him and Russell Westbrook. As you can see, Westbrook is putting up a ridiculous 59.0 fantasy points over the past month, 8.8 more than Giannis in that span, and he's basically built for this scoring format. Antetokounmpo and the Bucks do play twice more than OKC in Weeks 14-24, though, including one game during the critical fantasy playoff window.

 

James Harden (hamstring) at No. 3 overall was a bold choice from Muhammad, but recent reports suggest Harden could be back "soon, anytime next week," which makes him look a lot safer. Fear of random rest days may have driven down LeBron James' stock a bit, but I love him at No. 6 in this format. Karl-Anthony Towns' durability is a huge reason I like him this early, and Stroup got a steal with Stephen Curry falling all the way to No. 10.

 

When you see DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond both taken in the top-20 picks, you know you're not in 8-cat or 9-cat. For DeRozan, it doesn't matter if he's not taking 3-pointers or getting defensive stats, while Drummond can go 4-of-20 at the FT line without actually hurting Charles' fantasy team. I liked the aggressive play for Embiid in this range, too, since he has top-10 upside on a per-game basis.

 

Devin Booker and Kemba Walker both look like value picks in the 30-40 range, and I was happy to land both Kyle Lowry and Lonzo Ball. I didn't draft Ball anywhere this season, but he's a great fit in this format. Blake Griffin was a high-upside pick at No. 31, and his risk is mitigated by the weekly lineups -- Stroup can stash him on the bench if his concussion costs him more than a handful of games.

 

Another wrinkle worth mentioning is that, in addition to helping players with poor FG% or FT%, this system doesn't reward players who are ultra-efficient. Volume is king, and even a player like Myles Turner (No. 39 overall) doesn't fare too well. He's second in the NBA in blocks, at 2.2 per game, but that's a modest 6.6 fantasy points -- less than someone getting five assists, or scoring seven points. Jayson Tatum and Serge Ibaka also dip in value for similar reasons, and both probably should have fallen out of the 40-50 range.

 

Jonas sniped me on Chris Paul with the No. 20 pick, but I was still satisfied with Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal at the turn. He took my preferred guys again with Goran Dragic (No. 79) and Taurean Prince (No. 99), but that'll happen when you draft with a roomful of your colleagues. Speaking of colleagues, Mike Gallagher couldn't make this draft, but he was there with us in spirit.

 

In retrospect, I wish I'd done more format-specific research. Matt Stroup and I were both at the turn, and (especially toward the end of the draft) I found myself scrambling to decide between a handful of comparable players. That said, I'm satisfied with my draft and think I have a solid mix of reliable value and high rest-of-season upside. Here's a look at each team's average value for the past month and season-to-date. Note that I'm only looking at the top-10 players in each scenario, since we'll have three guys on the bench each week.

 

Average Fantasy Points (top 10 players)
  Past Month All Season
André Snellings 35.3 33.9
Charles Koo 30.9 32.4
Dan Dobish 33.4 32.3
Eric Andrews 34.5 35.2
Jonas Nader 34.3 34.5
Matthew Stroup 36.4 36.5
Muhammad Lila 32.9 32.8
Renee Miller 34.3 34.7
Ryan Knaus 35.4 33.8
Steve Alexander 34.7 30.6

 

Matt Stroup comes out ahead in both monthly and season-long averages, which doesn't bode well for the rest of the league. However, that overall number is misleading because it includes Nikola Vucevic -- with Vuc tossed out, Stroup dips to 35.3 (season) and 35.2 (monthly). Still rock-solid. Steve's team is interesting, because it doesn't look good season-long, but has been surging lately -- guys like Jimmy Butler, Josh Richardson, Lou Williams, Dario Saric and Trey Lyles have all be stepping up their game lately. Ultimately, this chart is just looking at what has happened, and each owner has their own cause for optimism.

 

We've made this simple league even simpler by all agreeing to set weekly lineups without making any add/drops. It makes the IR spot pointless, but is a fun way to see whose draft bears the most fruit. The draft was great, maintaining our teams will take almost no effort, and I highly encourage fantasy fans to give it a try! If you have any questions or insights, send them my way via email or on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Good luck this week.



Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.
Email :Ryan Knaus



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