Dan Beaver

NASCAR Fantasy Cheat Sheet

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Can Am 500k Cheat Sheet

Friday, November 9, 2018

One race remains before the Ford 400 championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The top eight drivers have gotten this far with good reason and they pepper the top of the rankings. Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott have a lot at stake and both of them are capable of winning the Can Am 500k at Ingenuity Sun Media (Phoenix).

Kyle Busch can easily challenge them.

Meanwhile Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano have not always performed their best on this flat one-miler, but one has a decent point advantage over the bubble and the other is locked into Miami.

Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, and Clint Bowyer are also sleepers to earn top-10s and that could make them great values in salary cap games.

1. Kevin Harvick
The last time this team was heavily penalized it was for an improper window at Vegas. They came to Phoenix the next week and won for the ninth time in Harvick's career.

2. Chase Elliott
In this race last year, Elliott had the lead with 10 laps remaining. He was passed by Matt Kenseth, but now that he knows how to win, he won't be as easy to pass in 2018.

3. Kyle Busch
Busch has only one victory at Phoenix in his rookie season, but his last six attempts there have ended in results of seventh or better.

4. Erik Jones
Since his rookie season, Jones has earned a perfect record of top-10s in three Phoenix starts with a best of fourth in this track last year.

5. Martin Truex Jr.
Before last fall, Truex had only one top-five at Phoenix in his career. He finished third in this race last year and backed it up with a fifth in the spring.

6. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin is often at his best on flat tracks. In his last six attempts at Phoenix, he has five top-10s and would have been perfect if not for an accident last fall.

7. Joey Logano
Logano is undoubtedly happy that he has a guaranteed position in the championship four at Miami because he has only one top-10 in his last five Phoenix attempts. That was a win in fall 2016.

8. Kurt Busch
Consistency has been the hallmark of this team throughout 2018 and it is a fair assumption Busch will earn another top-10 this week. If any of the Big 3 stumble, that might get him to Miami in championship contention.

9. Brad Keselowski
This has not been a very good track for Team Penske. Like his teammate Logano, Keselowski has only one top-10 in his last five attempts - a fifth in spring 2017.

10. Kyle Larson
Larson finished third at Phoenix in fall 2016 and was second the following spring. Those two strong runs are surrounded by four results outside the top 10, however.

11. Ryan Blaney
Blaney got off to a strong start at Phoenix with a sweep of the top 10 in his rookie season. He has not cracked the top 15 in three races since.

12. Daniel Suarez
Now that Truex has been confirmed in the No. 19, Suarez needs to run better than ever. Two of his three Phoenix attempts have ended in top-10s.

13. Aric Almirola
Almirola will probably fly under the radar for much of the weekend, but his third-place finish at New Hampshire should get him onto a few rosters.

14. Alex Bowman
In six races on this track type, Bowman has earned one top-10 (at Martinsville this spring) and he's finished just outside that mark three more times including a 13th in the first Phoenix race.

15. Clint Bowyer
In order to qualify for the playoffs, Bowyer is going to have to go for broke this week. He finished sixth in the spring TicketGuardian 500k, but that was his first Phoenix top-10 since 2013.

16. Jimmie Johnson
It is unlikely that Johnson will challenge for a win this week, but he has been perfect in regard to top-15s on short, flat tracks so far in 2018.

17. Ryan Newman
No one should doubt Newman's desire: He body-slammed Larson out of the way to win in spring 2017. That is his only top-10 in his last six Phoenix races.

18. William Byron
Some of Byron's best finishes of 2018 came on short, flat tracks early in the season. He finished 12th at Phoenix and again at Richmond this spring.

19. Austin Dillon
In six short, flat track races, Dillon has scored only two top-15s. He came close on one other occasion, however, and that was a 17th at Phoenix this spring.

20. Jamie McMurray
McMurray's last four efforts on short, flat tracks ended in results of 21st or better. His Phoenix attempt earlier this year netted only a 26th, however.

21. Matt Kenseth
The last time Kenseth was at Phoenix, he visited Victory Lane. So far in 2018, he has a best result of 15th on short, flat tracks that came at New Hampshire.

22. Paul Menard
Menard's accident at Phoenix this spring was the only time he has finished outside the top 25 on a short, flat track in 2018.

23. AJ Allmendinger
This is Allmendinger's last legitimate opportunity to score a top-10 and attract a future car owner's eye. He is often at his best on short, flat tracks that have some similar characteristics to road courses.

24. Ty Dillon
Dillon has four results of 23rd or better on short, flat tracks. That is the good news. The bad is that he finished 30th in this spring's Phoenix race.

25. Chris Buescher
Buescher was one of the most pleasant surprises in the First Data 500 at Martinsville with a 13th-place finish. Phoenix is twice the size, but it races much the same.

26. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Short, flat tracks have not been overly kind to Stenhouse this year with one top-15 and an average of 21.2 in six attempts.

27. David Ragan
After finishing 22nd in the spring Phoenix race, Ragan has gone on to earn three more top-25s in five short, flat track races.

28. Michael McDowell
His last three starts on short, flat tracks ended in results of 26th at New Hampshire, 24th at Richmond, and 25th at Martinsville for McDowell.

29. Cole Whitt
Whitt missed the spring Phoenix race, but he has swept the top 30 in three short, flat track races since with a best of 24th a couple of weeks ago at Martinsville.

30. Matt DiBenedetto
With a 25th-place finish this spring in the TicketGuardian 500k, DiBenedetto got off to a strong start. He also finished 16th at Richmond in the spring, but the remainder of his short, flat track starts ended outside the top 25.

31. Ross Chastain
If a player is looking for a bargain in salary cap games, Chastain has finished in the top 30 in five of six short, flat track races this year.

32. DJ Kennington
Kennington has been a surprisingly good value on short, flat tracks this year with a worst of 31st at Phoenix in the spring and a best of 27th at Martinsville.

33. Bubba Wallace
Two-thirds of Wallace's starts on short, flat tracks have ended in results of 24th through 28th.

34. Regan Smith
While he has been a good value on several tracks this year, the short flat courses are not among those. His best on this track type was 28th at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago.

35. JJ Yeley
Yeley has made two previous starts on short, flat track in 2018. Both of them came at Martinsville and they both resulted in 31st-place finishes.

36. Landon Cassill
Cassill missed the spring Phoenix race, but he has been consistent on short, flat tracks since with results ranging from 32nd to 38th.

37. Cody Ware
The last time Ware started a race on one of the short, flat tracks, he finished 39th at New Hampshire last fall.

38. Timmy Hill
Car owner Carl Long found a way to enter the No. 66 this week despite saying he would not make it to Phoenix, but their speed will still be minimal.

39. Tanner Berryhill
Berryhill has been sitting on the sidelines for the past couple of years, but a solid performance in Xfinity prelims at the Roval created this opportunity.

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver

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