Dan Beaver

Statistically Speaking

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21. Trevor Bayne

Tuesday, January 16, 2018


Trevor Bayne was one of the best fantasy values in almost every game last year—until June, that is.

He got off to a great 2017 start with top-15s in eight of 12 races in the first third of the season. Bayne finished 16th on other occasion and all but one of those events ended with him on the lead lap. Bayne’s only failure to go the distance came at Talladega SuperSpeedway in the Geico 500 when he retired with crash damage 23 laps from the end. In 10 of those races, he finished better than he started; in one race in which he failed to earn positive place-differential points, he fell a single spot from 12th to finish 13th.

Discounting the outlier at Talladega, Bayne had an average finish of 10.7 in the first third of the season, which made him a place-and-hold driver, but as soon as fantasy players ripped May off the wall calendar, his fortune changed. Bayne finished 21st at Dover International Speedway and again the next week at Pocono Raceway. After a brief respite at Michigan International Speedway, he faded again and finished 20th or worse in his next seven attempts.

Michigan once again proved to be kind to Bayne in the summer. He finished fifth after starting 21st—adding 16 place-differential points to his credit in the process. The next week, he was seventh on a completely different style of track: Bristol Motor Speedway—earning back-to-back top-10s for the first time in the season. It was a pyrrhic accomplishment, however, because he finished outside the top 25 in his next five attempts.

In the fall, it appeared Bayne might have a resurgence of results when he scored three top-15s in the span of four races and earned positive place-differential points in every race. That was until a 28th-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway—four laps off the pace—and an accident at Phoenix International Raceway 86 laps from the end soured fantasy owners one more time.

Bayne’s fantasy relevance came in those opening races, however; and he showcased a tendency that players must keep in mind: Momentum can change in a heartbeat, and one has to be willing to drop struggling drivers quickly.

Overall, Roush-Fenway Racing was relatively strong last year. But this is an organization that has been in a rebuilding mode for several seasons and with a pair of relatively young drivers in Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., the growth has not been as substantial as either they or fantasy owners would like.

Victories: None
2017 Average Finish: 19.47
Top-fives: 2 (.056)
Top-10s: 6 (.167)
Top-15s: 13 (.361)

 

Track

3-Yr
Avg.
Fin

Career
Avg.
Fin

Career
Attempts

Career
Top-5s

Career
Top-10s

Race 1

Race 2

Bristol Motor Speedway

13.00

16.00

7

1

2

11

7

Michigan International Speedway

15.33

21.07

14

1

2

17

5

Daytona International Speedway

17.17

23.21

14

2

4

10

23

Atlanta Motor Speedway

17.67

17.25

4

 

 

12

 

Homestead - Miami Speedway

19.00

26.71

7

 

 

19

 

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

19.33

18.57

7

 

1

13

 

Richmond International Raceway

19.33

19.33

6

 

 

13

25

Martinsville Speedway

19.67

21.86

7

 

1

13

6

Kansas Speedway

20.17

20.29

7

 

1

10

20

Kentucky Speedway

20.33

20.33

3

 

 

37

 

Charlotte Motor Speedway

20.33

23.25

12

 

 

16

14

Talladega SuperSpeedway

21.50

25.14

14

1

3

37

3

Watkins Glen International

22.00

22.00

3

 

1

35

 

Pocono Raceway

22.83

22.83

6

 

 

21

20

Texas Motor Speedway

23.83

23.27

15

 

 

13

28

Auto Club Speedway

24.00

25.50

4

 

 

23

 

Chicagoland Speedway

24.33

23.20

5

 

 

22

 

Dover Downs International

24.83

24.83

6

 

1

21

24

Sonoma Raceway

25.00

25.00

3

 

 

27

 

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

25.50

25.50

6

 

 

20

24

Phoenix International Raceway

28.33

30.00

7

 

 

19

38

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

30.00

29.71

7

 

 

20

 

Darlington Raceway

36.67

36.67

3

 

 

35

 

 

22. Dillon, Ty 
23. Buescher, Chris 
24. Allmendinger, AJ
25. Kahne, Kasey



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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