Dan Beaver

Statistically Speaking

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Update: Michigan (Spring)

Saturday, June 17, 2017


There was not a lot of fluctuation at the top of the charts this week. Drivers who rolled off the hauler quick remained that way through Friday and Saturday.

When one averages out the three practice sessions and qualification, nine drivers had numbers better than 10th including the drivers who line up on the front two rows. Pole sitter Kyle Larson ranks second through these combined sessions, outside pole sitter ranks third, third-place qualifier Clint Bowyer ranks seventh, with fourth-starter Kyle Busch having the best overall session.

Larson and Truex are among the most expensive drivers in the field during a given week, but they have consistently proven to be worth the cost.

Equally important, Larson had the third-fastest single lap in Happy Hour, but he was the quickest in terms of 10-lap averages. With back-to-back wins on the two-mile tracks of Michigan last summer and Auto Club Speedway this spring, he easily becomes this week’s favorite to earn maximum points. If he can get the lead at the start, Larson should be able to control the first segment and earn a lot of laps’ led points.

How he will fare against Truex is a matter of speculation, however, because Martin did not make any long runs in Saturday’s morning or afternoon sessions. It never pays to discount his speed and players who chose to spend heavily at the top and want both Larson and Truex on their roster may dominate their league.

Busch has been solid all season and it is just a matter of time before he visits Victory Lane. This is one of his best showings in prelims and under normal circumstances that would suggest he will be one of the drivers to beat. He is not one who deals well with frustration, however, and last week’s late-race decision that cost him the race at Pocono Raceway is still fresh in his and fantasy owners’ minds.

That leaves Clint Bowyer as one of the more affordable options this week. He is in one of the best cars he has had all season and used it to turn the third-fastest lap in the final round of qualification. Two of his three practices were among the top 10 as well. There is some slight doubt about his overall odds this week, because he was only 10th-quick in terms of 10-lap averages among 19 drivers who went that far. We predict that he will challenge for a top-10, however.

Ryan Blaney is another moderately priced driver with a lot of upside this week. He showed consistently fast single lap speeds and rolls off the grid from sixth. He posted the fifth-quickest, 10-lap average of 195.047 mph, which should translate to a top-10-capable car.

One of our pre-weekend favorites did not fare as well during the weekend. Chase Elliott qualified 10th and might be worth taking based on that alone, but his Saturday practices were not strong with a 15th-best and 18th-best showing. In terms of 10-lap averages, he settled in at 13th among 19 and will suffer through a long afternoon unless the team finds speed overnight.

 

Start

Driver

Qual Speed

Practice 1
Rank

Practice 2
Rank

Final Practice
Rank

Avg.
Rank

             

4

Kyle Busch

      201.523

2

2

2

2.5

1

Kyle Larson

      202.156

1

7

3

3.0

2

Martin Truex Jr.

      202.117

4

1

7

3.5

7

Joey Logano

      200.770

3

9

4

5.8

6

Ryan Blaney

      200.854

9

4

11

7.5

13

Jimmie Johnson

      200.306

5

3

9

7.5

3

Clint Bowyer

      201.664

8

11

8

7.5

12

Brad Keselowski

      200.050

13

5

1

7.8

11

Kevin Harvick

      200.206

10

5

12

9.5

5

Denny Hamlin

      201.337

11

14

10

10.0

14

Erik Jones

      200.178

15

8

5

10.5

8

Jamie McMurray

      200.742

6

19

17

12.5

10

Chase Elliott

      200.378

7

18

15

12.5

17

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

      199.225

12

10

14

13.3

16

Kasey Kahne

      199.369

14

12

13

13.8

9

Matt Kenseth

      200.730

17

13

18

14.3

15

Kurt Busch

      199.712

16

15

16

15.5

20

Daniel Suarez

      198.533

22

16

6

16.0

18

Austin Dillon

      198.961

18

21

23

20.0

19

Ryan Newman

      198.708

20

24

20

20.8

21

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

      198.522

21

17

25

21.0

25

AJ Allmendinger

      197.482

19

22

28

23.5

23

Danica Patrick

      197.775

24

25

24

24.0

27

Trevor Bayne

      197.158

32

20

19

24.5

24

Chris Buescher

      197.525

30

23

22

24.8

22

Michael McDowell

      198.211

23

28

29

25.5

26

Darrell Wallace Jr.

      197.401

31

27

21

26.3

29

David Ragan

      195.780

25

29

30

28.3

30

Paul Menard

      195.615

27

30

27

28.5

37

Ty Dillon

              -  

26

26

26

28.8

28

Matt DiBenedetto

      196.223

29

31

31

29.8

31

Ryan Sieg

      193.668

28

32

32

30.8

32

Corey LaJoie

      192.472

34

34

33

33.3

33

Cole Whitt

      191.520

35

35

35

34.5

34

Reed Sorenson

      190.305

37

33

34

34.5

36

Landon Cassill

              -  

33

37

36

35.5

35

Jeffrey Earnhardt

      189.999

36

36

37

36.0

 

10-Lap Averages

   

10-Lap Averages

 

Avg

Practice 2

   

Final Practice

 

Rank

                   

1

Kyle Busch

      196.876

   

 

Kyle Busch

 

 

1.0

2

Kyle Larson

      196.095

   

1

Kyle Larson

  195.416

 

1.5

3

Denny Hamlin

      195.901

   

2

Denny Hamlin

  195.391

 

2.5

5

Kevin Harvick

      195.684

   

3

Kevin Harvick

  195.188

 

4.0

4

Erik Jones

      195.714

   

 

Erik Jones

 

 

4.0

 

Brad Keselowski

 

   

4

Brad Keselowski

  195.110

 

4.0

 

Ryan Blaney

 

   

5

Ryan Blaney

  195.047

 

5.0

6

Jimmie Johnson

      195.437

   

 

Jimmie Johnson

 

 

6.0

7

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

      195.294

   

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 

 

7.0

8

Jamie McMurray

      195.243

   

7

Jamie McMurray

  194.424

 

7.5

10

Daniel Suarez

      194.223

   

6

Daniel Suarez

  194.831

 

8.0

9

Kasey Kahne

      194.306

   

9

Kasey Kahne

  194.124

 

9.0

11

Matt Kenseth

      193.099

   

8

Matt Kenseth

  194.286

 

9.5

 

Clint Bowyer

 

   

10

Clint Bowyer

  193.219

 

10.0

 

Danica Patrick

 

   

11

Danica Patrick

  193.127

 

11.0

 

Joey Logano

 

   

12

Joey Logano

  193.113

 

12.0

 

Chase Elliott

 

   

13

Chase Elliott

  192.855

 

13.0

 

Kurt Busch

 

   

14

Kurt Busch

  192.819

 

14.0

 

Ryan Newman

 

   

15

Ryan Newman

  192.240

 

15.0

 

Michael McDowell

 

   

16

Michael McDowell

  191.261

 

16.0

 

David Ragan

 

   

17

David Ragan

  190.942

 

17.0

 

Ty Dillon

 

   

18

Ty Dillon

  190.534

 

18.0

 

Matt DiBenedetto

 

   

19

Matt DiBenedetto

  189.035

 

19.0

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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