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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Friday

Friday, August 10, 2018


Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT’s DFS platform, it’s an innovative daily fantasy game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last under five minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can roster him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link. 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Zach Eflin – SP – Atlanta (DRAFT Projection: 8.9 FP)

 

Eflin is well outside of the top 10 pitchers per DRAFT. The in-house projection system is pessimistic about his inning and strikeout totals. Versus the whifftastic Padres, I estimate six innings, 5.8 strikeouts, 3.0 runs, and 40 percent of a win (10.4 FP). That puts him squarely in the third tier of pitchers. Of the many third tier pitchers available today, Eflin may be the best blend of risk and reward.

 

Matt Olson – INF – Oakland (DRAFT Projection: 8.4 FP)

 

By my reckoning, Olson is around the fifth most likely batter to hit a home run tonight. I suppose DRAFT must disagree. His projection is nowhere near the top 20 infielders. I have him around the eight best at the position. His opponent, Felix Pena, is terrible against left-handed hitters (.290/.372/.487 in a small sample). Pena also allows one of the highest hard contact rates in the league. Olson likes to prey on low fastballs which is Pena’s main offering.

 

Other infield bargains – there are many tonight – include Joey Gallo, Khris Davis, and Gleyber Torres.

 

Giancarlo Stanton – OF – New York (DRAFT Projection 10.9 FP)

 

Stanton is more or less correctly projected. He should be expected to supply about 11 points. I mention him here only because he should be the first drafted outfielder. DRAFT lists him as the fourth best. Stanton’s matchup against Mike Minor and the Rangers bullpen is among the most likely to yield a home run. Only J.D. Martinez has better power potential tonight. While Stanton disappointed for a big chunk of the season, he’s on fire since the start of June.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Shane Bieber – SP – Cleveland (DRAFT Projection: 11.5 FP)

 

I have nothing against Bieber – he’s a perfectly fine third tier target tonight. A case could be made that he’s the fourth best pitcher, although I see seven starters I’d target before him. DRAFT is projecting a sizable uptick in his strikeout rate. The White Sox are strikeout prone, but DRAFT is overdoing it. And given the friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Park, I’m not comfortable with a 2.1 runs allowed projection. Instead, I’m handicapping him at 5.2 innings, 5.6 strikeouts, 3.0 runs, and 40 percent of a win (9.85 FP).

 

Yasmani Grandal – INF – Los Angeles (DRAFT Projection: 10.7 FP)

 

Although it’s always risky to pick against a player at Coors Field, I wouldn’t take Grandal as the second best infielder. I’m not sure I would select him in the top 10. Grandal is opposed by Jon Gray. In four starts since returning from a tune-up stint in the minors, Gray has pitched to a 1.52 ERA. That includes starts at Coors Field versus the Astros and Mariners. The Dodgers may undo his hot streak, but there is too much potential for him to toss another gem tonight. With so many premium infielders available, I’d aim for a softer matchup.

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher Talk. We have an interesting pitching slate tonight. Cole is the runaway top arm followed by Tanaka and Snell. Then we’re left holding a pile comparable volume arms. If you have the opportunity to select Cole, it might be worthwhile. He’s substantially better than the alternatives. Tanaka also seems to be pitching well and has a history of improving in the second half. Snell may be somewhat limited due to his recent return from the disabled list. If you miss the top trio, you might as well wait until round five.

 

  1. Gerrit Cole – Tier 1
  2. Masahiro Tanaka – Tier 2
  3. Blake Snell – Tier 2
  4. Nate Eovaldi – Tier 3
  5. Freddy Peralta – Tier 3
  6. Zack Wheeler – Tier 3
  7. Zach Eflin – Tier 3
  8. Shane Bieber – Tier 3
  9. Derek Holland – Tier 3
  10. Kyle Hendricks  – Tier 3
  11. Kevin Gausman – Tier 3
  12. Carlos Rodon – Tier 4


You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.
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