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Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: South African Open

Wednesday, December 5, 2018


There aren't a lot of options for European Tour DFS action but DraftKings has given us some nice contests to work with this week. 

This week's event is the South African Open which is hosted at Randpark GC. Due to the massive field size (240 golfers), there are two courses in use during the opening two rounds. 

For DFS purposes, this presents an opportunity to stack tee-time or course waves. With multiple courses and 240 golfers in action, it's very possible that we see a particular starting course and/or course & tee-time wave have an advantage before the cut. 

Let's have a look at the weather and then some course-fit angles to see who might be worthy of a roster spot this week... 



Weather

Thursday (R1): Mostly cloudy with a high of 81 degrees. Winds at 10-to-15 MPH. Very slight chance of storms to hit (10%). 

Friday (R2): The chance of storms increases, as afternoon delays are very possible (80% chance of precipitation by 1 PM and 90% chance by 4 PM). Winds at 15 to 20 MPH. 

This event was basically the Joburg Open last year and it needed a Monday finish to get things done. That is very likely again as Friday and Saturday bring a high chance of thunderstorms. Sunday also calls for light rain but a boomer can't be ruled out on Sunday, either. 


 
Course Fit

There a few angles we can look at this week, but two of them stand out in terms of a large sample size and historical success when it comes to predictive power. They are performance on Bentgrass greens and Performance against Weak Fields. Let's have a look at those. 

Looking at performance on Bentgrass (Euro Tour only) since the start of 2015, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this:  


Branden Grace

Bernd Wiesberger
Charl Schwartzel
Louis Oosthuizen
Richard Sterne
Dylan Frittelli
Erik van Rooyen
Matt Wallace
George Coetzee
Dean Burmester
Pablo Larrazabal
Jaco Van Zyl
Thomas Aiken
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
David Drysdale

 

Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on Bentgrass (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

 

Shaun Norris
Jared Harvey
Louis Oosthuizen
Ruan de Smidt
Titch Moore
Madalitso Muthiya
Hennie Otto
Austin Connelly
Scott Vincent
Garth Mulroy
Marcel Siem
Duncan Stewart
Keenan Davidse
Richard Sterne
Brandon Stone


Course Fit on Bentgrass:
 Looking for golfers that crack both lists we find Louis Oosthuizen and Richard Sterne


The second angle we will look it as how golfers fare when they are taking on a weaker or thinner crop of talent. This week's field has some big names at the top but it thins out VERY QUICKLY.

Here are the top 15 performers against Weak Fields since 2015: 


Now let's see who performs the best versus their baseline when taking on weak fields: 


Course Fit against Weak Fields: Looking for golfers that crack both lists we find Charl Schwartzel, Matt Wallace, George Coetzee, Erik van Rooyen, Brandon Stone, Scott Jamieson, and Matthieu Pavon




Value Spotlight
 
Jacques Blaauw: The 32-year-old South African is a four-time winner on the Sunshine Tour. He finished top 5 at the SA Open last year. He has a runner-up finish at the Tshwane Open (2015). All of his close calls on the Euro Tour have come here in South Africa. Blaauw took a stab at the Web.com Tour this year and that didn't go so well. However, it may have grown his confidence as he's posted finishes of T16 or better in 5-of-7 starts on the Sunshine Tour since returning from the States. He's a nice bargain on DK this week as he's the 58th-highest priced golfer at $7,100 but he ranks 22nd in this field in terms of performance on bentgrass since 2015 and also ranks 22nd in this field in performance against weak fields. If we look at angles like performance in altitude or performance in Africa then he jumps even higher, cracking the top 15 on both of those lists. Blaauw won't show up on any European Tour or PGA TOUR form tables which means lower ownership for this South African that arrives with his game trending in the right direction. 





Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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