Josh Culp

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Expert Picks: Mayakoba

Wednesday, November 7, 2018



One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 



Let's start our search this week with who has played well at El Camaleon:


Charles Howell III
(8-for-9 with seven top 20s)
Kevin Streelman (5-for-5 with a T3 and T4)
Pat Perez (5-for-6 with a T13, T16, and WIN)
Brian Stuard (5-for-5 including TWO RUNNER-UPs)
Scott Brown (5-for-6 three top 20s)
Graeme Mcdowell (4-for-4 including a WIN)
Brian Gay (8-for-8 with a T5 and WIN)
Patton Kizzire (T58 and WIN)
Emiliano Grillo (T10-T9)
Si Woo Kim (T17-WD-THIRD)
Gary Woodland (T28-RUNNER UP-T34)
Chez Reavie (5-for-5 with a T4 and T14)
Rickie Fowler (RUNNER UP)
John Huh (5-for-6 with a WIN and four other top 30s)
Oscar Fraustro (4-for-6 with a T9 and T13)

 

After history, we can look at baseline performance over the last few years. More recent results are weighted more heavily: 

Jordan Spieth
Rickie Fowler
Matt Kuchar
Tony Finau
Zach Johnson
Gary Woodland
Joaquin Niemann
Emiliano Grillo
Ryan Moore
Charley Hoffman
Luke List
Jim Furyk
J.B. Holmes
Charles Howell III
Pat Perez



Looking for an overlap list we see a few names pop up: Charles Howell III, Pat Perez, Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, and Rickie Fowler.  

Fowler is probably the top overall play but I don't want to waste him in this weak-field event with a smaller purse. 

Pat Perez is showing some signs of life but his overall 2018 form is hard to trust. 

That leaves CH3, Grillo, or Woodland. CH3 has a boatload of top 20s here but four of those have landed in the 13th to 20th range. As for Woodland, I like his ability to pop higher up the board. He enters on the heels of five straight finishes of T12 or better. Woodland is my pick. 

Emiliano Grillo makes for a great pick, as well. His steady tee-to-green game fits well at Mayakoba and it's shown with top 10s in both appearances. 


Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:


Tony Finau ($11,900): He could easily take a break if he wanted but I think he's on a mission to Maui.  

Gary Woodland ($11,800): Plays these shorter courses well as it eliminates some of his big misses when he clubs down off the tee. 
 
Denny McCarthy ($8,900): He's been inside the top 15 after 54 holes in four of his last six starts. TRENDING. 
 
Adam Svensson ($7,100):Dominated the Caribbean portion of the Web schedule last year so I will take a flyer this week as he heads down to Mexico.
 
Abraham Ancer ($10,000): Will be a fan favorite this week in his home country. He keeps flirting with the winner's circle. Expect him to be very popular at this price point. 
 
Billy Horschel ($10,100): FanDuel's algorithm accounts more for long-term performance so Horschel continues to be underprice, even though he found his game over the summer. 

 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Gary Woodland ($10,700): Had through-the-roof ownership last week but maybe that will dip a little, now that you have to pay an extra $1,000 to own him. He's arriving on a heater and also has a runner-up finish on his Mayakoba resume. 
 
Anders Albertson ($7,200): Should be a popular value play after finishes of 5th and 28th over the last two weeks. He was already gaining ownership traction last week and his price remains in the bargain bin.  
 
Abraham Ancer ($8,400): Continues to flirt with the winner's circle so why not as he heads back to where he grew up, Mexico? 
 
Kramer Hickok ($6,800): Was T5 after R1 last week. He showed all the tools last year on the Web. Could be ready for a breakout. 
 
Charles Howell III ($9,500): A steady cut maker who racks up top 20s on a regular basis here in Mexico. Ownership should gravity toward Grillo right above him which may leave CH3 underowned. 
 
Hudson Swafford ($7,200): Swinging for the fences here, I'm going with Swafford as my last pick.  He talked about playing through injury last year at the Barracuda but at that event he said he was starting to play pain-free again. Now he arrives with back-to-back top 30s. I'm going to strike before the iron is too hot. 

 





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Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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