Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: The Greenbrier

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

We head to West Virginia for this week's Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. 

It's a full field event with 156 golfers vying for the top spot. On top of normal motivating factors, there are also four more spots up for grabs for The Open Championship, through their Open Qualifying Series. You must finish inside the top 12 to have a crack at that. 

Now let's take a look at the weather, get some ideas of who to play on, and then see who likes to see bentgrass greens laid out in front of them. 


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Weather Update

Thursday (R1): Slight chance of showers (20 or 30%). Partly sunny with a high near 87 degrees. Calm winds. 

Friday (R2): Showers likely with potential T-Storms as well. Cloudy with a high near 81 degrees. Calm winds. 

Weekend temps sit in the upper 70s. Showers may arrive Saturday morning but Sunday now looks clear. 

Early in the week, it looked like we'd be lucky to get this event finished on time. Now, it looks like the only big concern is the storms on Friday. The storms could potentially cause favorable conditions for one tee-time wave but it's not something that looks predictable, by any means.

We should probably expect Friday's round to push into Saturday but they should be able to recover and catch back up by the end of day, Saturday. 
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts. 

The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings. 


Kevin Kisner (62.5 Projected Pts): It's been mostly bust for Kisner at The Old White TPC. He's missed the cut in four of his five starts here. The exception? A runner-up finish in 2015. He entered on the heels of three straight top 15s (five top 15s if you look at his seven-event lead-up form). This time around, Kiz has missed the cut in three of his last five starts, posting T52 and T74 finishes in his cuts made. On the default projections he sits at 9th on the draft board. Given his spotty history and very spotty form, Kisner deserves a big drop down the board. 

Phil Mickelson (72.3 Projected Pts): Lefty owns property here at Greenbrier but don't let that trick you into thinking this is a home-course event. Mickelson has struggled to dial in his yardages in the past here (played at 1,900 feet above sea level) and that's resulted in three missed cuts in four starts. Last year, he did finish T20 so that is a bit promising. Still, as the highest projected golfer I would personally want a little less negativity in the course history department. 


Joaquin Niemann (33.9 Projected Pts): It's no secret anymore that ball-striking is the route to consistent success on the big stage. This young Chilean has gained strokes tee-to-green in every PGA TOUR event he's played in so far. That is impressive when you consider he's lost strokes around-the-green in seven of his eight ShotLink starts. With elite ball-striking skills, Niemann is an easy plug-and-play until he cools off (if that ever happens). He's posted top 20 in three of his last four starts and deserves a big boost up the draft board. 

Aaron Wise (35 Projected Pts): I pointed out Kisner's poor form above, so why do I like Wise here who enters with three straights missed cuts? It's simple when you look at their default projected points and their two-month window of form. Kisner hasn't posted anything better than T52 over that time while Wise posted a runner-up at the Wells Fargo and won his first PGA TOUR event at the Byron Nelson. The young phenom has had his month-long hangover but now I think he's ready to regroup for a new run of form. I wouldn't make him a top-20 pick this week but anything outside of that is good value for the Oregon Duck product. 

Course Fit

When it comes to course fit, putting surface is the easiest and most consistently relevant piece to look at. This week, we have bentgrass greens so let's have a look at who like these. 

Looking at performance on bentgrass greens since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 


Phil Mickelson
Tony Finau
Brandt Snedeker
Russell Henley
Bill Haas
Bubba Watson
Keegan Bradley
Webb Simpson
Brian Harman
Jim Furyk
Kevin Chappell
Jimmy Walker
Joaquin Niemann
Xander Schauffele
J.B. Holmes

Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bentgrass courses(versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  


Smylie Kaufman
Tim Herron
Steve Marino
Robert Garrigus
Jonathan Randolph
Abraham Ancer
Geoff Ogilvy
Steven Bowditch
Chad Campbell
Billy Hurley III
Ryan Armour
Jon Curran
David Lingmerth
Chris Stroud
Mackenzie Hughes

 There aren't any overlapping names this week but a few that are close would be Russell Henley and Brandt Snedeker. Both should be considered strong plays, although Snedeker's poor season-long form must also be considered into the equation. 

Value Spotlight
David Lingmerth The beauty of DFS is that each week is a new puzzle. We can use this to our advantage. Last week, Lingmerth was one of the more trendy, value picks. He answered that call with a T48 at the QL National. Not terrible, but his owners probably aren't rushing to get back on the train. Experts around the industry also like to mix up their recommendations from week-to-week so the number of Lingmerth mentions this week are much lower, despite not much changing. The Swede is still playing in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast where he's feasted in the past. More specifically, he's posted three top 20s in four tries here at The Old White TPC. That includes a T9 in 2013 and a T6 in 2015. Lingmerth has shown small flashes of a return to form and this week's comfortable venue could be just what he needs to get back in gear. 

Best of luck in all your contests this week! 

Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp

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