Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: QL National

Wednesday, June 27, 2018


A small field of 120 golfers is assembled in the nation's capital this week for the Quicken Loans National. 

Instead of battling the heat, many of the big names are overseas or resting before they make the trip overseas for the season's third major which takes place in three weeks. 

That leaves us with a small and relatively thin field this week in Potomac, Maryland. Let's dive through some numbers to see who might pop off the page. 

 

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Weather Update

Thursday (R1): Overnight storms may leak into the morning . Unlikely to cause a delay but we can't rule that out. Mostly sunny with a high of 87 degrees. Winds at 7-to-12 MPH. 

Friday (R2): Sunny with a high near 90 degrees. Calm winds expected to remain under 5 MPH. 

If you're looking for the tiniest of edges, the Thurday AM wave might get softer conditions and 6-to-10 MPH winds instead of the PM wave that will deal with a steady 12 MPH wind. However, the early wave might get the highest gusts of winds when finishing their rounds as the peak gusts are currently 20 MPH around 11 AM. 

Overall, the weather looks like a non-factor for me this week. The weekend looks dry with temps in the mid-90s. HOT! 
 

DRAFT.com 
 
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts. 

The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings. 

OVERRATED GOLFERS

Adam Hadwin (61.3 Projected Pts): When a projection system largely uses 2017 data you are going to get some cases like Hadwin this week where their projection doesn't match their current form. The Canadian has finished T42 or worse in five straight starts. He missed the cut here last year. Based on current form alone, I'd dock him about 10 points on his projection. 

Ollie Schniederjans (57.4 Projected Pts): If this course plays anything like last year, then driving accuracy will at least be somewhat important. That's not good news for someone like Ollie who has hit fewer fairways per round than the field he's faced in 12 straight starts. That has also led to him finding fewer greens in regulation than the field in 10 of his last 12 starts. With hazards and nasty rough lurking everywhere at TPC Potomac, that kind of ball-striking is the recipe for disaster. Schniederjans will eventually snap out of his slump, but I'm not banking on it this week. 

UNDERRATED GOLFERS


Tiger Woods (38.4 Projected Pts): They continue to use the same algorithm to project these golfers so we can continue to bump up Tiger whenever he pegs it. Based on adjusted performance in 2018 alone, Woods ranks 2nd in this field behind only Rickie Fowler. He easily deserves a 30 point boost in his projection, I'd say. 

Chesson Hadley (38.4 Projected Pts): He's burned people recently with back-to-back missed cuts but I like his chances to rebound this week. Heading to TPC Potomac, this is a course where he finished runner-up when the Web.com Tour visited the venue. With those good vibes in his pocket and elite approach play, Hadley should be able to easily outproduce this low projection. I wouldn't go as far as bumping him 30 points like I said for Tiger, but something in the 15-to-20 point range seems reasonable. 

Course Fit

TPC Potomac features bentgrass greens. 

Looking at performance on bentgrass greens since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

 

Rickie Fowler
Marc Leishman
Bill Haas
Francesco Molinari
Kyle Stanley
Byeong Hun An
Jimmy Walker
Kevin Na
J.B. Holmes
Gary Woodland
Jamie Lovemark
David Lingmerth
Charles Howell III
Chad Campbell
Harris English


Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bentgrass courses(versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

 

Tim Herron
Jonathan Randolph
Robert Garrigus
Geoff Ogilvy
Chad Campbell
Billy Hurley III
Rickie Fowler
David Lingmerth
Whee Kim
Kevin Tway
Chris Stroud
Ricky Barnes
David Hearn
Kyle Stanley
Anirban Lahiri


Recommendation:
 A few names that pop on both lists are Chad Campbell, Rickie Fowler, David Lingmerth, and Kyle Stanley. Campbell's form is enough to stay away but the other three names should certainly be at the top of mind this week. 


Value Spotlight
 
Kevin Tway Looking at the bentgrass numbers above, Tway just missed the list as he sits at 16th in overall bentgrass performance since 2014. Those numbers are time-weighted but he's still dragged down a bit by his disappointing 2014 numbers. Since 2017 on bentgrass he is 13-for-14 with five top 20s. He also arrives with three top 10s over the last two months. Tway is trending and that makes it an easy decision to plug him into a fair share of lineups this week. 


Best of luck in all your contests this week! 
 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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