Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: Travelers

Wednesday, June 20, 2018


After a fun week at Shinnecock Hills, the PGA TOUR unwinds in Cromwell, Connecticut. 

This event takes place at TPC River Highlands, the host venue since 1984. Plenty of course history to work with at this 6,841-yard, Pete Dye Design. 

With a short course on hand, golfers will be able to relax off the tee, if they see fit but big hitters can still try to attack and gain a small advantage. It's a fun course that doesn't usually favor one particular skill set. 

 

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Weather Update

We had a huge weather angle last week and it panned out as expected. That's rare! Don't expect anything similar this week as the forecast looks great for golfing... 

Thursday (R1)
: Mostly sunny with a high of 82 degrees. Winds in the 5-to-10 MPH range. 

Friday (R2): Mostly sunny with a high of 79 degrees. Winds in the 5-to-10 MPH range. 

TPC River Highlands does not always produce the lowest of scores but the current forecast calls for birdies in bunches. Weather should not be an issue which should lead to plenty of pin-seeking this week. 
 

DRAFT.com 
 
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts. 

The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings. 

OVERRATED GOLFERS

Rory McIlroy (67.7 Projected Pts): A risky name to avoid or lower your exposure to but his game has been somewhat sputtering since the Masters, at least by his lofty standards. Yes, he has a T8 at the Memorial and a strong finish overseas as well but that Memorial finish was buoyed by an 8-under 64 on Saturday. He made the cut on the number that week and it was very close to being an MC which would tell a different story about his week. Always has the go-low potential but I don't think he's a name you need to heavily target until he flashes some steady form. 

Pat Perez (66.5 Projected Pts): At this projection range you could grab Perez who hasn't found a top 30 since March (T20 in a no-cut, limited field WGC Mexico) or you could grab the Masters champ who has racked up five top 10s in that same timeframe. Last week's top 40 at the U.S. Open was a promising sign for Perez but he's still lost strokes to the field in four of his last six starts. There is no reason to take him this high in your drafts. 

UNDERRATED GOLFERS


Ryan Moore (58.9 Projected Pts): This short knocker enters the week with top 30s in six of his last seven starts. Heading to a course where distance is not required, there is no reason to expect him to slow down now. Here at the Travelers, he has twice been T2 after the opening round and he was the solo 54-hole leader during the 2014 edition. Plenty of great vibes to bank on this week. You could swap him with Pat Perez from above and I think the rankings would make a lot more sense. 

C.T. Pan (48.5 Projected Pts): If you're playing in the smaller leagues then you won't need to drop this far but Pan is someone that should be on your radar once the draft hits 20 or more golfers. His course form and recent form are both trending in the right direction. After a missed cut at the Valero he's posted finishes of T76-T46-T32-T20-T18 and his resume at the Travelers reads T25-T8. If he keeps improving then we would be looking at a top-10 finish this week. Given his lack of length off the tee, it makes sense that Pan would really take a quick liking to TPC River Highlands. 

Course Fit

Similar to last week, we see another course with poa annua greens. This course has a bit more of a blend with bentgrass included, so we will target golfers that perform well on either surface. 


Looking at performance on bentgrass or poa courses since the start of 2014, the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this: 

 

Jordan Spieth
Jason Day
Rory Mcilroy
Paul Casey
Brooks Koepka
Justin Thomas
Patrick Reed
Marc Leishman
Brandt Snedeker
Bubba Watson
Patrick Cantlay
Zach Johnson
Emiliano Grillo
Bill Haas
J.B. Holmes


Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bentgrass or poa annua courses(versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:  

 

Steve Marino
Smylie Kaufman
Brandon Harkins
Derek Fathauer
Padraig Harrington
Robert Garrigus
Jon Curran
Brooks Koepka
Patrick Rodgers
Mackenzie Hughes
Kevin Tway
Tyrone Van Aswegen
Rob Oppenheim
Harris English
Brandt Snedeker


Recommendation:
 A few names that pop on both lists are Brooks Koepka and Brandt Snedeker. Consider giving them a boost this week, although Koepka might have some exhaustion to deal with after a huge win last week. That's a whole other topic, though. 


Value Spotlight
 
Keegan Bradley He looked like he was trending in the right direction with a T7 at THE PLAYERS and then T23 at the Memorial. Then he ran into the Shinnecock Hills buzzsaw. I wouldn't put too much stock into that since the course and setup was some much different than what these pros see on a week-to-week basis. Staying in the New England territory, Bradley will try to improve upon his 7-for-7 record here at TPC River Highlands. That includes six straight top 40s with a T8 last year. He's been inside the top 10 twice after 36 holes here, it's just a matter of piecing his entire week together. Priced as a bargain across the DFS industry, I think he's an excellent option in all formats this week. 


Best of luck in all your contests this week! 
 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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