Josh Culp

Playing the Tips

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Expert Picks: Pebble Beach

Tuesday, February 6, 2018



One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Daniel Berger flirted with contention last week but faded on Sunday. Not a disaster result, but let's look for something better at Pebble Beach. 

Let's start this week with some weighted tournament history: 

 

Jason Day (8-for-8 with five T11 or better)
Brandt Snedeker (7-for-10 with two wins)
Dustin Johnson (9-for-10 with two wins)
Jon Rahm (T5)
Patrick Reed (5-for-5 with three top 15s)
Kelly Kraft (3-for-3 including RUNNER-UP last year)
Gary Woodland 1-for-3 with T5 last year)
Phil Mickelson (18-for-21 with four wins)
Jimmy Walker (8-for-10 with WIN and T3)
Matt Jones (9-for-10 with five top 25s)
Luke Donald (6-for-8 with six top 30s)
J.B. Holmes (10-for-11 with six top 25s)
Nick Watney (10-for-13 with three top 10s)
Mac Hughes (T10)

After that, let's look at a (weighted) baseline performance metric since the start of 2014.   

 

Dustin Johnson
Jordan Spieth
Rory Mcilroy
Jason Day
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey
Adam Scott
Matt Kuchar
Patrick Cantlay
Phil Mickelson
Austin Cook
Brandt Snedeker
Patrick Reed
Rafa Cabrera Bello


Looking at both lists, we see some overlap with the following names: Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, and Phil Mickelson.

I think Rahm is a solid play if he's still available to you. I would prefer to save Day and DJ for bigger purses. That leaves Snedeker, Reed, and Mickelson. 

Reed has good history here but doesn't have many rounds where he's actually boosted himself into the top 10 here. While steady play is nice, it doesn't pay the One-and-Done bills. 

That's not a problem for Snedeker who has found himself inside the top 10 after 12 of his last 20 rounds played here at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. I will go with Brandt Snedeker unless his tee-time draw shows a clear disavantage.

 

Update: With a weather draw potentially favoring golfers that play Spyglass on Saturday, I'm going to make a late change. My new pick will be Patrick Cantlay who ranks 30th in weighted course history but ranks 9th over long-term skill. He ranks #2 behind Jon Rahm (already used) when isolating golfers that will play Splyglass on Saturday. The weather angle may end up being nothing but I'd rather go with my gut here and Cantlay in Cali sounds good to me.


Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:


Dustin Johnson ($12,800):
 The World No. 1 is a two-time winner at this event. He clearly loves playing in this laid-back type of event. 


Patrick Cantlay ($10,400): 
The Cali native finished T9 here way back in 2013. He made his return last year with a T48. I think that's on the low-end of what we should expect this week. 

Phil Mickelson ($10,900): 
A near-miss last week in Phoenix. Now he heads to an event where he's hoisted the hardware on four different occasions.

Brandon Harkins ($8.500):
 Another Cali native with loads of experience in the Monterey Peninsula, just not at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Should be comfy this week and he's crushing it during his rookie year. 

Maverick McNealy ($8,000):
 Another Californian who considers this a bucket-list event to play in. He'll be playing with his father this week. Still trying to play his way into TOUR status, this would be a good week to pick up a bunch of Non-Member FedExCup Points. 

Beau Hossler ($8,800):  I think the trend is clear now. I want to target California natives this week. Hossler was a standout amateur who struggled to quickly earn status as he was trying to play through injury. Now fully healthy, he's looking great and the best part of his game is the flat stick. That should play nicely this week, especially on tricky poa greens that will likely be similar to the grasses he grew up playing on. 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Phil Mickelson ($9,600): Got in contention last week and he's won four times at this week's event. Loves poa annua greens. 


Brandon Harkins
 ($7,000):
After a missed cut on the number, I will go back to the Cali native who returns to home soil. 

Patrick Cantlay ($8,900):
 Read above from FanDuel team. This steady Eddy is easy to plug and play at sub-$9k. 

Branden Grace ($9,100):
 Crushes it by the coast so I'm willing to take a shot in his tournament debut. 

Pat Perez ($8,600): 
Plenty of ties to the West Coast. He's had some close calls at this event. Most notable was the 2002 edition where he led thru 54 holes before finishing runner-up. He's picked up four top 15s at this event since then, including three of this last four visits.

Maverick McNealy ($6,600):  Read FanDuel above. McNealy is trying to play his way into PGA TOUR status and will have a good chance to pick up some Non-Member Points in his home state. 

 



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Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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