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DFS Dish: WM Phoenix Open

Wednesday, January 31, 2018


The DFS Golf season is now in full bloom. 

Tiger Woods had a successful return which should be great for the industry (and contest sizes) moving forward. He will be prepping for Riviera, his next scheduled start, but there are 132 other golfers meeting in Scottsdale, Arizona, for this week's WM Phoenix Open.

Let's take a look at some last-minute strategy tips for DFS gamers... 


Roster Construction
 
This week's field is loaded at the top. That presents DFSers with a tough decision. 

Do you need to target one stud and forget about the rest? Can you load up on two of the studs and round out the squad with "scrubs"? Or should you avoid the top tier entirely and just go with a balanced lineup? 

Looking at expected performance, I have three golfers as the TOP TIER, with those being Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth. Close behind them is Rickie Fowler. I think it's smart to have at least one of these four golfers in all of your DFS rosters this week. 

I'm not forgetting about Justin Thomas, defending Player of the Year, but he drops down my totem pole this week due to lower consistency numbers and a lack of great results at this course. If you are looking for A LOT OF UPSIDE with LOWER OWNERSHIP, then Justin Thomas might be the golfer for you this week. 

 
Recommendation: Don't get cute and try to avoid the top tier entirely this week. With a smaller field (132 golfers) the cut-made probabilities for the low range will be higher than a full-field event. The pricing across the industry is also somewhat soft this week. I would recommend you play at least one STUD (the five golfers listed above) in all of your lineups this week. 


Weather Update

Early in the week, I talked about the weather being extremely calm this week, and that still looks to be the case. 

Golfers who tee off in the early morning will see temps in the upper-50s that transition to mid-70s as the day progresses. Winds don't appear to be a factor, AT ALL. The highest gusts on the forecast look to be 10 MPH. 

Recommendation: With prime scoring conditions this week, weather shouldn't be a factor in your roster construction this week. Goflers should see fair conditions, regardless of tee time, this week. 


Course Fit

Each week I will point out one angle to target, given the course/s in play for the week. This shouldn't be the only thing you look at, but something to consider if you need a tiebreaker.

TPC Scottsdale is an area that is playable all year long but in the winter it has really cool morning temperatures. For that reason, they overseed the bermuda with ryegrass to keep the course pure throughout the winter. 

Looking at performance on similar grass types since the start of 2014, the top 10 performers looks like this: 

Hideki Matsuyama
Jordan Spieth
Jon Rahm
Russell Henley
Ryan Palmer
Rickie Fowler
Austin Cook
Patrick Reed
Daniel Berger
Kevin Na


Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on overseeded courses (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop: 

Russell Henley
John Huh
Ryan Moore
Ryan Palmer
Daniel Berger
D.A. Points
Michael Kim
Adam Hadwin
Sung Kang
Brian Stuard


Recommendation:
 Golfers that show up on both lists would be Russell Henley, Ryan Palmer, and Daniel Berger. Give all three a boost this week. Consider anchoring your teams with the golfers that show up highly on the first list and then take a few shots with golfers that show up on the bottom list.  
  

Value Spotlight
 
Brendan Steele The Cali native was the 36-hole co-leader here last year. He's positioned himself inside the top 10 thru 54 holes in three of his last five trips to Phoenix. When he was in contention last year, he said the following, "I’ve just never had much trouble with the lines off the tees and things like everything just kind of makes sense to me, for whatever reason. Certain weeks just make sense, and other weeks you just can’t quite figure them out. This has always been a very comfortable place." Also, when I look at wind performance, Steele is someone that shows a big dropoff in gusty conditions. Considering the wind is forecasted to be dead calm this week, Steele is someone who should enjoy the ripe scoring environment. Despite his love for this course and great overall stats, he is the 26th-highest priced golfer on FanDuel and 21st-highest priced golfer on DraftKings. Don't let him slip through the cracks.


Best of luck in all your contests this week! 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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