Josh Culp

Playing the Tips

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Expert Picks: WM Phoenix Open

Tuesday, January 30, 2018



One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Jon Rahm faded over the weekend, providing me a poor return. Time to rebound this week in the desert.

Let's start this week with some weighted tournament history: 

 

Hideki Matsuyama (T4-T2-WIN-WIN)
J.J. Spaun (T4)
Webb Simpson (6-for-7 with five top 15s)
Rickie Fowler (7-for-9 with three top 5s)
Jordan Spieth (T7-T9)
Byeong Hun An (6th)
Zach Johnson (6-for-7 with four top 15s)
Shane Lowry (T6-T16)
Jon Rahm (T5-T16)
Brendan Steele (7-for-7 with five Top 20s)
Phil Mickelson (22-for-28 with THREE WINS)
Kevin Na (11-for-12 with eight top 30s)
Matt Kuchar (6-for-8 with two top 10s)
Bubba Watson (9-for-11 with six top 15s)
Daniel Berger (T10-T58-T7)

After that, let's look at a (weighted) baseline performance metric since the start of 2014.   

 

Jordan Spieth
Jon Rahm
Rickie Fowler
Hideki Matsuyama
Matt Kuchar
Justin Thomas
Phil Mickelson
Marc Leishman
Francesco Molinari
Brandt Snedeker
Austin Cook
Steve Stricker
Zach Johnson
Patrick Reed
Daniel Berger


Looking at both lists, we see some overlap with the following names: Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, and Daniel Berger

There is an obvious Big 3 bubble here, in my mind with Spieth, Matsuyama, and Rahm claiming those spots. Fowler would be close behind at #4 for me. However, they are all elite golfers that might be better served in an event with a bigger prize pool. I've used Matsuyama here in the past but the top tier seems to be more crowded this year. Instead, I'm going to dip down a bit. 

I've already used Webb Simpson so that leaves me with ZJ, Phil, Kuchar, or Berger. The pick of the Ryder Cup litter, really. 

Mickelson is always exciting but he makes a little too many bogeys nowadays, so I will pass. Kuchar is making his first PGA TOUR starts of 2018 so that is also a pass for me. 

With Z. Johnson always safe for a good finish at TPC Deere Run, I will save him for now and choose Daniel Berger



Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:


Zach Johnson ($10,600):
 He's fully synced up with his latest equipment from PXG. Typically runs hot or cold, so I will keep riding the hot streak while it's here. 


Daniel Berger ($10,800): 
Motivated to take his game to the next tier in 2018, I'm looking for big things from Boog, early and often. 

Phil Mickelson ($10,300):
This local favorite is as boom-or-bust as they come. I expect a few too many bogeys to truly contend but he should rack up plenty of fantasy points in the process.

James Hahn ($8,700):
 Brings local knowledge to the table. Will know the ins and out of these green complexes. 

Austin Cook ($10,00):
Proving to be a consistent week-to-week performer. He's still a plug-and-play for me, anytime he's at or below average salary. 

Kevin Streelman ($8,600):  Another with local ties, he's yet to capitalize here at the WM Phoenix Open. Striking the ball great recently, so I will take a shot. 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Zach Johnson ($7,700): Swinging a hot club and appears to be underpriced here. 

Brandon Harkins ($6,800): Scottsdale resident who arrives in stellar form. I've been slow to jump on the train, but I can't ignore the form plus local knowledge angle. 

Austin Cook ($8,300):
 Going with my second rookie, Cook certainly doesn't play like a rookie. He's beat the field average by four or more strokes in five of his seven starts this season. 

Webb Simpson ($8,900):
 His precision off the tee generally sets him up for loads of birdies looks. He's proven to convert here on these desert greens. Has top 15s in each of his last five visits.

Daniel Berger ($9,500): 
Has picked up a pair of top 10s here in three tries. That includes 3-of-12 rounds posted at 66 or better. 

Matt Kuchar ($8,400):  There is nothing to get excited about here, it's Matt Kuchar after all, but he finds himself massively underpriced like he oftend does. His lack of birdie-making reputation will do that. Had a desert warmup in Abu Dhabi so perhaps he's more warmed up than most would think by just looking at his PGA TOUR results. 

 



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Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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