Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: Farmers

Wednesday, January 24, 2018


The return of Tiger is finally upon us. 

With that return comes huge prize pools across the DFS industry.

I've shared some thoughts in the Farmers Insurance Open Preview and the Expert Picks article but let's take one last sweep of things. Hopefully these strategy thoughts can help you finalize your rosters and help you earn more than your fair share of prizes this week. 


Course Stacking
 
With two courses in play this week (Torrey South and Torrey North) there has been a lot of pre-tournament chatter about whether you should target golfers that start their week on a specific course. 

At first glance, we notice that each of the last seven winners here has started their week on the South Course. Must be the course you NEED to start on, right? Not so fast. 

First, seven years is an arbitrary number and looking at just the winner can also be misleading. If we expand our search to the last 10 years and look at every golfer that has finished inside the top 3 then we find that 55% have started their week on the South Course and the other 45% started on the North Course. South still has the edge, but not by much. 

Getting an even bigger sample size of golfers that find themselves in contention here, we can look at all the golfers that have finished top 10 at the Farmers since 2008. Remarkably, it's split exactly down the middle, with 61 starting their week on the South and 61 starting on the North. 

On a year-by-year basis, starting on the North Course has produced more top-10 finishes in 5-of-10 years, South starters have won in that regard in 4-of-10 and in 2013 they both produced 7 golfers who finished inside the top 10 (tie). In fact, both courses have produced at least four top-10 finishers in each of the last 10 Farmers. We may see variance and/or weather favor one side of the draw in certain cases but there doesn't appear to be any clear-cut favorite here, in terms of which course you want your golfers to start on. 

 
Recommendation: The importance of starting course appears to be overblown in this situation. Feel free to mix and match between golfers that start on the North and South Courses this week. 


Weather Update

Temperatures look to be in the low-60s this week until Sunday when the area will see a boost into the upper 70s, possibly hitting 80. 

Looking at the wind forecast over the first two days, we see the two days nearly mimic each other, to a tee. It appears that golfers will see calm conditions in the AM with winds approaching 10-to-15 MPH as the day progresses. 

Recommendation: There doesn't appear to be a wind-differential advantage this week. If I'm looking for any weather angle, it would be targeting golfers that practice on the West Coast since they will be very comfortable under these playing conditions. 



Course Fit

Each week I will point out one angle to target, given the course/s in play for the week. This shouldn't be the only thing you look at, but something to consider if you need a tiebreaker.

Golfers will play three of their four rounds at Torrey Pines South this week. One of the distinguishing features of this course (besides the silly length) is the poa greens. These surfaces are known to get bumpy and favor the golfers that can handle a few great putts getting knocked offline. 

Looking at performance on similar grass types since the start of 2014, the top 10 performers looks like this: 

Jon Rahm
Jason Day
Shane Lowry
Justin Rose
Martin Laird
Brendan Steele
J.B. Holmes
Tony Finau
Phil Mickelson
Hideki Matsuyama



Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on poa annua (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop: 

Martin Laird
Shane Lowry
Scott Stallings
K.J. Choi
Jhonattan Vegas
Derek Fathauer
Sung Kang
J.B. Holmes
Jonas Blixt
Matt Jones


Recommendation:
 Martin Laird, Shane Lowry, and J.B. Holmes show up on all three lists. None of them have really gotten into gear yet in 2018, but this week might be a chance for all three to find some magic. The bottom list could help you find a deep sleeper or two this week. 
  

Value Spotlight
 
Aaron Wise For a second straight week, the Oregon Duck will hold this spot. We are still on the West Coast which means this California native will be comfortable in this climate and familiar with the grass types. The 21-year-old will grab your attention with his length off the tee but it's his short game that is impressing me so far. This season he's played in seven events, six of those with ShotLink-measured rounds. He's gained strokes putting in 5 of those 6 events. Torrey Pines will finally allow him to unleash his biggest weapon, the driver, which we haven't been able to see much yet, given the courses he's played. Despite a rise in price this week on some DFS sites, Wise is still a strong value play here on the Left Coast.
 

Best of luck in all your contests this week! 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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