Josh Culp

DFS Dish

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DFS Dish: CareerBuilder

Wednesday, January 17, 2018


Golf is returning to the mainland this week which means lineup locks will continue to creep up into the early morning hours. 

This week, we have until 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday morning.

Let's go through some final preparations to get our rosters ready...

Course Stacking
 
One strategy that DFS gamers have picked up over the years is the stacking of tee times due to weather concerns. There are many times throughout the year where one "wave" gets a half stroke or better advantage which can make the difference between a missed cut and a paycheck sometimes. 

With three courses in play this week, tee times are bunched within just a few hours of each other. That means wind shouldn't specifically play a big role in one time slot. However, there is a small blip of wind concerns on Friday afternoon. If that holds true, then golfers playing certain courses on Friday may gain an advantage. 

My natural instinct would be to target golfers playing the toughest course (Stadium Course) on Friday because you need to go low on the Nicklaus Tourney and La Quinta courses. That will be much harder to do if you are dealing with sporadic wind gusts throughout your round. 
 
Recommendation: Given the current forecast, wind DOESN'T look like a HUGE concern but you never know with the weather. If you are playing multiple lineups this week, consider making a few rosters with at least four golfers starting on the same course and then make similar lineups for all three starting venues. I say at least four because I don't think you need to ignore obvious value plays and completely stack the same starting course. If all goes to plan, you gain a nice edge. If not, you at least help yourself create some unique roster combinations that others may not have if they are using the entire field with no restrictions to set their lineups. 

Weather Update

I just touched on this a little bit in the section above, but the mid-week forecast is calling for calm conditions for most of the week. 

The lone exception comes on Friday afternoon where winds could be gusting up to 20 MPH. Overall, I would expect golfers to rack up plenty of birdies with this weather. 

Other than the wind, it's important to point out the cool temperatures in the current forecast. Right now, Thursday is the only day where temps will exceed 70 degrees. 

I think this is when regional knowledge plays the biggest role. Golfers that have been training in the Palm Springs area or in a similar climate like Scottsdale will be very familiar will cool morning conditions where the golf ball flies a lot shorter. 

Recommendation: Wind doesn't look to be a problem but cool temps may give an advantage to golfers that have been training in the region. 



Course Fit

Each week I will point out one angle to target, given the course/s in play for the week. 

As we head to the Palm Desert in January, we have to be aware of the overseeded greens. If you play these courses in June, for example, you will be playing on bermuda greens but right now the bermuda is dormant and the ryegrass is asserting it's dominance. 

Looking at performance on similar grass types since the start of 2014, the top 10 performers looks like this: 

Ryan Palmer
Patrick Reed
Kevin Na
Bill Haas
Webb Simpson
Brendan Steele
Charles Howell III
Jimmy Walker
Jason Dufner
Chris Kirk

Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on bermuda (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop: 

Ryan Palmer
Matt Jones
John Huh
Jason Gore
Brian Stuard
Chris Kirk
Webb Simpson
Patrick Reed
Brendan Steele
Martin Laird


Recommendation:
There are a few names on the first list that are in a bit of slump right now. That would include Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, and Jimmy Walker. This looks like a good spot for them to rebound, but you could have said that about a few spots along the way of their sllumps. Tread carefully with them. 

Other than that, goflers like Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Brendan Steele, and Chris Kirk show up on both lists, making them prime targets this week. 
 
 

Value Spotlight
 
Aaron Wise The Oregon Duck product finished T34 here last year in his CareerBuilder debut. He wasn't even old enough to (legally) drink a beer at the time. The 21-year-old has now secured some PGA TOUR status so he should come in with a little less pressure on his shoulders. Last year wasn't the first time he's played these courses, though, as the local went to high school less than 100 miles from here. He should be very comfortable playing in this climate with these grasses. He's very affordable across the DFS landscape this week, making him a prime target for Stars-and-Scrubs lineups.
 

Best of luck in all your contests this week! 


Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.
Email :Josh Culp



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