Mark Lindquist

Daily Fantasy Decisions

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DFS Bargains: Week 10

Thursday, November 1, 2018


In this column, going position-by-position, we’ll offer up one building-block DFS sleeper priced at $6,000 or cheaper ($6,500 and cheaper at QB) and three deeper bargains priced at $5,000 or cheaper (two QBs at $6,000 or cheaper). We’re plucking our dark horses from DraftKings. Player pool this week will be drawn from the Saturday early slate.

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Quarterback


Affordable building block ($6,500 or less):

Michigan QB Shea Patterson ($6,100) vs. Penn State -- Once more we’ll try our chances with Patterson. His numbers remain modest for the campaign (multiple touchdown passes in just four-of-eight games), but we’re optimistic that he might be able to pump up those numbers moving forward. The Wolverines are optimistic that WR Tarik Black -- arguably the team’s best skill-position player -- will be able to play in full on Saturday after missing the entirety of the campaign to date due to a broken foot.



And two from the bargain bin ($6,000 or less):


Missouri QB Drew Lock ($6,000) at Florida -- You have to feel somewhat weary on this one given Lock’s extreme issues against SEC teams this year -- he’s thrown just one touchdown in four conference games -- but at the price, we’ll take that gamble. Quarterbacks in this price range rarely come with the kind of upside that Lock does, even if Lock’s upside is not always realized. Florida is also coming off a tough-fought loss to Georgia, we wouldn’t discount the possibility that Lock and crew could jump on them early. One note on that loss to UGA: While Florida surrendered three touchdowns to Jake Fromm, that came with the Gators losing CB C.J. Henderson to a back bruise in the contest and starting S Brad Stewart sitting out for reasons undisclosed. Henderson is expected back on Saturday. We’ll see on Stewart. To wrap, there’s fair reason for unease with the Missouri signal-caller -- and there’s a reason he’s priced so low -- but we view him as the best option in this price range dangers be darned.


Florida QB Feleipe Franks ($5,300) vs. Missouri -- If you’re not down for throwing Lock to the Gators, perhaps we could interest you in his counterpart on the other sideline? Earlier in the campaign, when Franks was clicking, he actually drew a $7,800 price tag versus Kentucky at one point. That’s because he started off the year like gangbusters, opening up with multiple touchdown passes in each of his first four games. That you’re now getting him at just $5,300, against S&P+’s No. 86 pass defense, is a sign of how much he’s cooled off. Franks owns a middling 4/4 TD/INT ratio over his last four games. Should be noted, two of those four previous contests came against LSU and Georgia. Missouri’s defense isn’t close to that of either outfit. Sneaky fun spot here for Franks, at a strong price.


Running back


Affordable building block ($6,000 or less):


Georgia RB D’Andre Swift ($5,600) at Kentucky -- We’ve touched on Swift in this space before and our feeling remains the same as it’s ever been, as the song goes. The talent just hasn’t matched the production this season, to the point where he’s now dropped firmly into a fun price point. Each of the past three weeks, now, Swift has cost less than $6,000 on DK. Against Florida on Saturday, the sophomore posted his best game of the campaign, rushing for 104 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Our hope, here, is that he starts to rev down the stretch -- we’d love to take advantage of a big game or two while he’s still affordable. UK certainly offers a challenge to opposing running games, though, as only Trayveon Williams has topped 100 yards vs. the Wildcats.


And three from the bargain bin ($5,000 or less):


West Virginia RB Leddie Brown ($4,800) at Texas -- The Longhorns have allowed four runners to go for 80 or more yards this season, and have proven particularly susceptible to allowing opposing backs to slash for long gains (No. 70 S&P+ vs. rushing explosion). While Kennedy McCoy ($5,000) also falls just within our price point, we prefer Brown. McCoy’s season-high for rushing yards was 77 against Texas Tech at the end of September. Understand that Brown’s been the epitome of boom-or-bust this season, posting four games in which he failed to manage even 35 yards rushing, but going off for 100-plus twice (albeit against Youngstown State and Kansas). It’s a low floor which we view as worth the risk for a larger showing. Brown has also scored touchdowns in each of his last three games.


Nebraska RB Maurice Washington ($4,800) at Ohio State -- The Buckeyes have been consistently beat up on the ground this season, allowing five 100-yard rushers in eight games. Washington is very much the all-or-nothing prospect that you would expect at this price point. His best showing of the year came in a 109-yard, one-touchdown performance against Minnesota two weekends ago, but he has also been limited to fewer than 45 yards rushing in four games this season. Devine Ozigbo ($6,500) is the established starter, here, and comes with an appealing price in his own right, so Washington’s opportunities might be relatively limited on Saturday, but against a soft OSU run defense, we like him to do damage.


Georgia Tech RB Jerry Howard ($4,800) at UNC -- North Carolina possesses S&P+’s No. 88 rushing defense, and Howard comes into this game having received increased work of late. He’s taken double-digit carries in each of his last two games, and has scored touchdowns in each of his last four contests. Howard is still looking for his first 100-yard game of the campaign, but has rushed for at least 55 yards in each of his last three games. We like the recent trend, especially with the touchdowns. If he could just start hitting on the yardage front.


Wide receiver


Affordable building block ($6,000 or less)


Syracuse WR Sean Riley ($5,900) at Wake Forest -- Ah, the game of Syracuse receiver whack-a-mole. Jamal Custis ($6,200) is just slightly out of range for us (though still reasonably priced), but Riley is coming off a monster game and we’ll happily take the seat downgrade in pricing on the chance that he can repeat what he pulled off against the Wolf Pack. Those who played him in DK lineups against NC State last weekend, as he caught 10 passes for 164 yards. It was his second 100-yard showing of the campaign. In five of his eight games this season, he has caught at least six passes. In each of the last two, Riley has caught at least seven. He could be in for a big showing against a Wake Forest team that has allowed five 100-yard receivers this year.


And three from the bargain bin ($5,000 or less):


Michigan WR Tarik Black ($4,900) vs. Penn State -- He’s baaaaaack. Black has not played this season due to a foot injury, but as we touched on earlier, UM is optimistic that he will be able to play this weekend. Do check to make sure that’s actually the case before you lock your lineup. So long as he is healthy, he’s not going to be sitting under $5,000 for much longer. Strike now before the DK algorithms catch back up to his renewed existence.


Clemson WR Amari Rodgers ($4,700) vs. Louisville -- As with the aforementioned Riley, Rodgers is coming off a fantastic game. In his case, he tortured FSU with six catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns on Saturday. Far-and-away his best showing of the campaign, that one, but we love taking our chances with young wideouts late in the season, as it can sometimes take time for them to acclimate before their talent shows out. But when it shows out, oh boy. Rodgers ranked as Rivals’ No. 186 overall prospect in the 2017 class. Fingers crossed we’re seeing the beginning of a blossoming.


Ohio State WR Binjimen Victor ($4,200) vs. Nebraska -- Victor is a player who we’ve gone to the well for on several occasions this season. He had been rolling on a three-game streak of scoring a touchdown prior to OSU’s pre-bye loss to Purdue, but even in that game, he caught a season-best five passes. For $4,200, we’ll gladly take our small piece of the Ohio State offense, install it in our lineup and see what happens.



Mark Lindquist holds a master's degree from the University of Iowa and writes baseball and college football for Rotoworld.com. He's currently working on a memoir about life, death, rock 'n' roll and his year teaching at a Chinese university. You can reach him on Twitter @markrlindquist.
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