Thor Nystrom

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CFB Preview: Teams Nos. 29-20

Monday, August 21, 2017


Note: My fantasy rankings can be found here (quarterbacks), here (running backs), here (wide receivers), here (tight ends) and here (kicker/defense). 


(29). West Virginia Mountaineers


Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:
Will Grier (No. 29 QB)
Justin Crawford  (No. 39 RB)
Ka'Raun White (No. 156 WR)

NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: S Kyzir White (Rd. 3 grade, per Tony Pauline)

How should I think about this team?: Overhyped.

Belied by the addition of ballyhooed former Florida QB Will Grier and returning an outstanding RB trio (Justin Crawford, Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway), the Mountaineers, coming off a 10-win season, drew Big 12 sleeper buzz over the summer.

I don’t see it.

Grier should mitigate the loss of Skyler Howard, and perhaps (probably) be an upgrade over him. But Howard was far from WVU’s only loss. Star WR Shelton Gibson is gone. So are five of the top seven offensive linemen. Less than 40-percent of the 2016 tackles return on defense (No. 125, per Phil Steele), and five of the top six defensive backs are gone too.

The receiving corps should be fine, between steady but unremarkable returnees Ka’Raun White and Jovon Durante (UPDATE: Durante has transferred to UAB) and QB-convert David Sills, a JUCO import. But Gibson’s big-play ability will be sorely missed and the inexperienced line, if it doesn’t come together, could conspire to both muck up a promising running game and bog-down the aerial attack. Further, Sills was a summer letdown after a big spring.

On defense, stud OLB/S hybrid Kyzir White returns, but most of his friends do not. The Mountaineers do get S Dravon Askew-Henry back from injury, but the front seven and cornerback unit face major rebuilds.

With so many questions on defense, the only reasonable path to a sunny WVU outlook is by projecting an explosive offense. Between an unproven offensive line and the turnover at quarterback and wide receiver, I can’t get there. With the upper-half of the Big 12 better than people think and the bottom half improving (Iowa State, Kansas), West Virginia could struggle to make a bowl if it doesn’t beat Virginia Tech in the opener.

Bovada over/under win total: 7
Prediction: UNDER
Projected record: 5-7


****


(28). NC State Wolfpack


Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:

Ryan Finley (No. 73 QB)

Nyheim Hines (No. 64 RB)

Kelvin Harmon (No. 163 WR)

Jaylen Samuels (No. 1 TE)

NC State D/ST (No. 23 D/ST)


NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: DE Bradley Chubb (Rd. 1 grade, per Tony Pauline)


How should I think of this team?: Gatekeeper of the ACC.


The Wolfpack had themselves a rollercoaster season a year ago, losing to ECU in the second game of the season, beating Notre Dame in a hurricane, pushing Clemson and Florida State in losses and getting blasted off the face of the earth by Louisville. They finished the regular season at 7-5, a record which fit their play like a glove. The question, now, is whether they can take it up one step. They have to do it this year, before the NFL drinks their milkshake after the season.


Second-year OC Eliah Drinkwitz’s system has a slew of versatile weapons at his disposal, from TE Jaylen Samuel (adept as both a rushing and receiving threat) to RB Nyheim Hines (converted over from wideout) to WR Stephen Louis (who averaged 19.4 yards on his 35 receptions, good for fourth-best in the ACC). If this offense is to take a step forward from frisky-competitive to outright good, that will hinge on whether QB Ryan Finley has another gear in his development. It’s a help that this is second year with Drinkwitz, but Finley rarely rose above competent last season.  


The Wolfpack’s shining position group comes in the defensive line. Bradley Chubb is the known name, a wrecking ball of knives who collected 21 tackles for loss and 10 sacks a year ago and could be one of the first players selected in next spring’s NFL Draft. Double-team him at your own peril, because this is not a one-man outfit. Justin Jones and B.J. Hill are rocks at defensive tackle, while Kentavius Street is a physical freak of an end in his own right. Predictably, teams didn’t even try to run against NC State. They won’t this season, either, which brings us to this defense’s likely Achilles Heel -- little is coming back in the secondary especially at safety, which lost Josh Jones to the Packers in the draft.


After season’s end, the Wolfpack will face wholesale changes due to graduations (Finley will be gone) and the NFL Draft (Chubb’s the headliner but they’ll lose more beyond him). This season will hinge on whether the offense can find a lift and whether the secondary can make up for its losses. It’s hard to see drastic steps forward on either front.


Bovada over/under win total: 7.5

Prediction: UNDER

Projected Record: 7-5


****


(27). Washington State Cougars

Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:

Luke Falk (No. 7 QB)

James Williams (No. 81 RB)

Tavares Martin (No. 28 WR)

Isaiah Johnson-Mack (No. 54 WR)


NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: QB Luke Falk (Rd. 5 grade, per Tony Pauline)

How should I think of this team?: A mirage -- tantalizingly close but never quite there.

Congratulations in advance to the Montana State Bobcats, who travel to Pullman to open the season against Washington State. The Cougars have dropped games to FCS outfits Eastern Washington and Portland State in the past two years. Jokes aside, HC Mike Leach should be able to weather the early FCS storm. It’s after that point that the plot thickens. Don’t discount the possibility that WSU slides in the Pac-12 North this year. They were never going to beat Washington, but Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State are all on the rise and any misstep is going to cost them the runner-up status they achieved to the Huskies in 2016.

Good for the Cougs, then, that Luke Falk is back for one more ride. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country and a glove-fit for Leach’s Air Raid. There’s room to make up in a receiving corps that just lost conference all-time leading receiver Gabe Marks and underrated second-fiddle River Cracraft, but Tavares Martin and Isaiah Johnson-Mack looks ready for their close-ups and we’ll trust that Leach can figure out the rest beyond that pair. And while Washington State remains the most pass-happy team in the country, they actually leaned (like very slightly) on their running game at times, last season, to very nice results. Three-headed monster James Williams, Jamal Morrow and Gerard Wicks combined for 1,635 yards and 22 touchdowns a year ago. That troika is back.

There’s something about stellar passing offenses and putrid passing defenses that seems to go hand-to-hand and Washington State fits that bill. They can be thrown on and they will be again this year, especially with the secondary without four of its top nine members from a year ago. Theirs wasn’t exactly the depth of Alabama in 2016, but having some amount of depth is preferable to having none at all.

The Cougars are going to be solid this season. They’ll score a million points and put on some entertaining games. But this is a team that feels very much on the precipice of a step back -- something which should become abundantly clear after Falk exits stage left this winter. For now, the hope is that Falk and Leach can coax one more run through the Pac-12 while they still have a chance. I don’t think they quite get there.

Bovada over/under win total: 7.5
Prediction: UNDER
Projected record: 7-5


****


(26). Arkansas Razorbacks

Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:

Devwah Whaley (No. 16 RB)
Jordan Jones (No. 106 WR)
Jared Cornelius (No. 134 WR)
La'Michael Pettway (No. 155 WR)
Austin Cantrell (No. 32 TE)

NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: C Frank Ragnow (Rds. 2-3 grade, per Charlie Campbell)

How should I think about this team?: Could be headed for a third seven-win season in four years, but the table is set for a 2018 breakthrough.

Arkansas looks poised to finish this coming season in the same neighborhood they’ve lived in the past three years (7-6, 8-5, and 7-6). Considering that this is somewhat of a transition year, that shouldn’t be viewed as a disappointment.

QB Austin Allen leads a passing attack that has been shockingly effective in recent seasons, finishing No. 1 in S&P+ in 2015 and No. 22 last year. Allen will work with a whole new cast o characters after the team lost six of last year’s top eight receiving targets. Not only did mainstays like Drew Morgan and Keon Hatcher walk out the door, but leading returning receiver Jared Cornelius was held out of fall camp after re-aggravating a back injury.

Hyped JUCO WR Brandon Martin had a disappointing camp, allowing upstarts like freshmen Jared Jones and Koilan Jackson and sophomore La’Michael Pettway to make runs up the depth chart. Arkansas also lost top running back Rawleigh Williams III to a career-ending injury, but hyped sophomore RB Devwah Whaley may be an upgrade anyway. Standout left tackle Dan Skipper isn’t around to open holes anymore, though six of his former line mates with starting experience return. C Frank Ragnow, one of the NCAA’s best, leads that group.

The Razorbacks’ defense cratered to No. 65 S&P+ in 2015 and No. 64 in 2016. HC Bret Bielema thinks he can solve the problem by shifting to a 3-4 attack in an effort to get more athletic in the front seven. He promoted DB coach Paul Rhoads to defensive coordinator with that transition in mind.

Despite its poor recent showings, the Hogs do have talent on defense. Sophomore DE McTelvin Agim was a ballyhooed recruit, enormous DT Bijhon Jackson should make for a strong 3-4 nose tackle, and it’ll be easier to add an extra LB to the alignment with six of last year’s top seven linebackers returning. The secondary should be fine. It returns most everyone, and Rhoads knows the personnel extremely well.

Add it all up, and we see a 7-5 finish that’ll look awfully familiar to folks in Fayetteville. Be patient. Next fall, the receiving corps will be solidified, Whaley will be an established star, and the defense (hopefully) won’t need a drastic makeover.

Bovada over/under win total: 7
Prediction: PUSH
Projected record: 7-5  


****

(25). Kansas State

Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:
Jesse Ertz (No. 40 QB)
Alex Barnes (No. 87 RB)
Byron Pringle (No. 107 WR)
Matthew McCrane (No. 20 K)

NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: S Kendall Adams (Rd. 4 grade, per Tony Pauline)

How should I think about this team?: The Kingslayers, and a darkhorse Big 12 contender.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are consensually viewed as the class of the Big 12. If neither win the conference, conventional wisdom suggests that TCU will. And if not them, perhaps Tom Herman’s upstart Texas Longhorns. I’d like to submit a fifth option that could potentially win the conference.

The Wildcats enter the 2017 season with more question marks -- and more projection variance -- than the four Big 12 teams I just mentioned. But if they can fortify their defensive front seven, and if the offense clicks, then KSU could return to its giant-killing days of yore.

It all starts with the offense, which could potentially be dangerous. The backfield of bruising dual-threat QB Jesse Ertz, thundering RB Alex Barnes and physical Winston Dimel, along with an experienced offensive line, guarantees that Kansas State will feature one of the country’s most effective downhill running games.

Ertz was terrible in the pocket last season, but my assumption is that the running game will be so good that it forces defenders to cheat forward, opening up the possibility of one-on-one play-action shots downfield. In WRs Byron Pringle and Carlos Strickland (a Cal transfer), the Wildcats have outside weapons capable of making defenses pay dearly for cheating, and in Dominique Heath, the Wildcats have a reliable slot option.

If the offense comes together, Kansas State will be defensive improvements away from being able to compete with the Big 12’s upper crest. The bad news? The defense lost star linebacker Elijah Lee and DE Jordan Willis to the NFL. The good news is that KSU returns DE Reggie Walker and DT Will Geary, havoc-wreakers both, and appears to have a few solid edge-rushing prospects in the pipeline. A strong pass rush would force opposing quarterbacks to make hurried decisions throwing into an experienced secondary. KSU’s linebacking corps is green, and it’s the unit that could undermine the entire defense if playmakers don’t emerge.

You know this KSU outfit won’t be outcoached. We’re about to find out if Bill Snyder’s 2017 Wildcats are a throwback to his great late-90’s teams, or an interesting puzzle that is missing a few too many pieces to stay out of the garbage.

Bovada over/under win total: 8
Prediction: UNDER
Projected record: 7-5


****


(24). Tennessee Volunteers

Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:

Quinten Dormady (No. 65 QB)
John Kelly (No. 45 RB)
Jauan Jennings (No. 91 WR)

NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: LB Darrin Kirkland Jr.

How should I think about this team?: Last year’s 9-4 finish was disappointing; this year, a 9-4 finish would be the opposite.

Josh Dobbs is gone. So are RBs Jaylen Hurd and Alvin Kamara, and leading WR Josh Malone and TE Jason Croom. Fortunately, so is coordinator Mike DeBord, whose conservative game plans made even impartial Tennessee viewers -- like myself -- furious.

The 2017 offense, obviously, will look far different than the 2016 offense. The unit doesn’t carry the same set of expectations, but it might turn out to be better if new OC Larry Scott can find a legitimate quarterback between junior Quinten Dormady and redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano. Whoever wins the job will be protected by a strong offensive line.

He’ll also work with a running back in John Kelly who was better than Kamara and Hurd when he was on the field last year. Kelly ran for 630 yards last year, most of it coming in the second half after Hurt left the program and Kamara got hurt. The receiving corps features a keeper in Jauan Jennings, but Tennessee is going to have to unearth a few other starting-caliber perimeter players from its collection of athletes and former top recruits.

Tennessee defensive coordinator Bob Shoop oversaw a defense that regressed from No. 20 S&P+ in 2015 to No. 54 last fall. It wasn’t his fault. Nine contributors missed at least four games, and star LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin appeared in only four.

Shoop will have to regroup without star DEs Derek Barnett and Corey Vereen. Outside of that, though, he’s sitting pretty for a big Year 2 improvement. Outside of Reeves-Maybin, who didn’t contribute much last year due to injury, all of the relevant linebackers return. That unit hopes to stay on the field this season.

Same story in the secondary: Basically the same cast of characters returns, and this time they’re hoping for better health luck. The Vols fortified that unit with the acquisition of Louisville graduate transfer CB Shaq Wiggins.


Bovada over/under win total: 7.5
Prediction: OVER
Projected record: 9-3

****


(23). Oregon Ducks

Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:

Justin Herbert (No. 23 QB)

Royce Freeman (No. 7 RB)

Charles Nelson (No. 76 WR)

Dillon Mitchell (No. 111 WR)

Jacob Breeland (No. 17 TE)

Adam Schneider (No. 23 K)

NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: RB Royce Freeman (Rd. 2 grade, per Tony Pauline)

How should I think of this team?: A rubber ball on the bounce back from hitting rock bottom.

The Mark Helfrich era at Oregon ended in a spectacular ball of fire last season, with multiple bloodbaths at the hands of Pac-12 foes who took turns bludgeoning the conference’s former top fowl. Stanford and Washington State both dropped 50-plus on Helfrich’s beleaguered squad, while Washington topped all-comers with a 70-21 blasting of the boys from Eugene in early October. When the flames died down at the end of the season -- following a loss to Oregon State in the Civil War -- Oregon sat at 4-8 and Helfrich found himself sitting on the curb.

Enter USF’s Willie Taggart. To aid in the monumental task of rebuilding a wrecked defense, Taggart hired Colorado’s Jim Leavitt to take over for the mangled Brady Hoke experiment at defensive coordinator. One hire won’t stem the flow of blood immediately, but Leavitt did a fantastic job with the Buffaloes and the hiring was a sharp one by Taggart, who not only landed himself a successful, established coordinator, but just as importantly landed one who knows the Pac-12. Patience is a virtue, though -- this was a young defense a year ago and you have to learn how to lift your head off the ground before you can begin to crawl.

While that defense tries to extricate itself from the Yucatan-Crater-sized disaster which Helfrich oversaw, there are fewer concerns on the other side of the ball. Justin Herbert was a minor-key revelation after taking over quarterbacking duties from Dakota Prukop as a true freshman last year. He won’t have leading wideout Darren Carrington to target following Carrington’s unceremonious dismissal due to a DUI, putting Charles Nelson and Dillon Mitchell in the crosshairs for the bulk of work. That’s a work-in-progress unit. The running backs corp, on the other hand, is rock-solid. Expect a make-good year from Heisman contender Royce Freeman after a down 2016 season, with Tony Brooks-James complementing him as a do-everything lightning-bolt. If Carrington were still on the team, this would be a sure-thing world-beater of an offense. As is, love the quarterbacks and running backs, TBD on the rest.

Taggart is seriously considering not redshirting any of his freshman, an unorthodox move that gives us an insight into how he’s approaching his first year in Eugene -- as an exercise in growth more than immediate result. Taggart’s approach is one for the future, not the present. The funny bit of it is that he’s going to get the wins, anyway. Outside of games against Stanford and Washington, Oregon’s schedule is pretty cushy. A year from now, we might be talking about how they stack up with Washington in the North.

Bovada over/under win total: 8
Prediction: OVER
Projected Record: 9-3

****


(22). Virginia Tech Hokies


Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:

Joshua Jackson (No. 39 QB)

Travon McMillian (No. 68 RB)

Cam Phillips (No. 23 WR)

 

NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: LB Tremaine Edmunds (Rd. 2 grade, per Tony Pauline)


How should I think of this team?: Beamer Ball feels like a distant memory.


The Hokies lost to Tennessee in the second game of the season a year ago, then stormed through the ACC to win the Coastal, with their banner moment coming in back-to-back wins against Miami and Pitt at the end of October. Head coach Justin Fuente’s reward for rebuilding the team in his offensive image was three of the most important pieces in that offense jumping to the NFL.


With QB Jerod Evans, WR Isaiah Ford and TE Bucky Hodges off to pursue their professional dreams (by varying degrees), Tech will play the replacement game this year. Let’s take them one at a time. Redshirt freshman Joshua Jackson will start in place of Evans. He pushed him in camp last August before Evans ultimately won the job and Fuente praised his consistency upon naming him starter this time around. Unlike the mostly-blank-slate Jackson -- Rivals ranked him as the No. 23 dual-threat quarterback in the country for the 2016 cycle -- WR Cam Phillips almost topped 1,000 yards while serving as the ostensible second option to Ford. He’s a good bet to top that mark. And no more Bucky Ball -- sophomore Chris Cunningham (who caught four touchdowns in six grabs) steps up in his place.


It’s not the most established of groups -- though Phillips and RB Travon McMillian are reliable pieces -- but Jackson probably could have started a year ago and it’s easy to trust Fuente’s ability to craft an offense on the fly. Look no further than, well, last season, when he had all of one offseason to take Frank Beamer’s staring-directly-into-eclipse offense into one which went all the way to the ACC Championship Game against Clemson.


On the other side, DC Bud Foster is just going to keep doing this forever. Virginia Tech ranked 17th in Bill Connelly’s defensive S&P+ metric under Foster’s tutelage in 216. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was. Foster’s current incarnation isn’t the deepest of teams, especially up front, but there’s talent a-plenty in a linebacking corps led by NFLer-to-be Trumaine Edmunds and a secondary led by CB Brandon Facyson.


In a stacked ACC, the Hokies will face off with Clemson at the end of September and Miami at the beginning of November in what will be their two biggest games of the year. That contest with the Hurricanes is particularly interesting, because by that time, we should have a very good idea just how well Fuente’s new offensive cast is putting it all together now.


Bovada over/under win total: 9

Prediction: OVER

Projected Record: 10-2


*****


(21). Miami Hurricanes


Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:

Malik Rosier (No. 68 QB)

Mark Walton (No. 6 RB)

Ahmmon Richards (No. 40 WR)

Chris Herndon (No. 18 TE)

Michael Badgley (No. 17 K)


NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: DE Chad Thomas (Rd. 4 grade, per Tony Pauline)


How should I think of this team?: Bringing Back the U might actually happen finally.


The Hurricanes were not infallible in their first year under Mark Richt -- they lost four in a row in a stretch against FSU, UNC, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame -- but that Notre Dame loss on October 29 was their last of the season. They rode out on a four-game regular-season winning streak and beat West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl to enter the offseason on a rolling high, which they carried over for Rivals’ No. 11 recruiting class in 2017. They’ll probably have a top-10 class this year. Everything, it would seem, is moving in the right direction.


Their biggest question mark and their biggest potential stumbling block is at quarterback. Brad Kaaya was not always a world-beater during his time with the Canes, but he was already established when Richt came over from Georgia -- which undoubtedly helped with the early success that Miami found. No such luck this time around. One of redshirt sophomore Evan Shirreffs or redshirt junior Malik Rossier will start (true freshman N’Kosi Perry is the internet’s darling, but he’s not quite ready yet). Rossier at least has some experience from backing up Kaaya and if we’re to offer a guess, Richt minimizes his risk and rolls with the experienced kid.


Regardless of who’s throwing the ball, the skill-position talent is exciting. Running backs Mark Walton and Travis Homer make for a pair of potential big-play backs, while the receiving corps runs deeper than just budding star sophomore wideout Ahmmonn Richards, with Braxton Berrios a perfect slot option and Lawrence Cager healthy in camp after missing the last season with a knee injury. If Rossier/Shirreffs can get on a groove, this offense has the potential to sizzle sizzle sizzle.


Richt’s real hand came not in the offense last season, but in turning around the defense. Noticeably turning it around. They were better against the pass. They were better against the run. They went from decent-but-flawed overall to awesome. All of that happened with a raw front seven that has the benefit of experience, now, and should be fantastic. There’s more work to be done in a secondary which lost CB Corn Elder, plus a pair of productive safeties, but Richt’s already shown a deft touch in righting what had been a moribund crew.


Miami shouldn’t be penned in for the conference title game, but penciling them in is a good idea. It’s either the Canes or the Hokies for the Coastal.


Bovada over/under win total: 9

Prediction: OVER

Projected Record: 10-2


****


(20). USF Bulls


Thor Nystrom’s fantasy targets:
Quinton Flowers (No. 2 QB)
D’Ernest Johnson (No. 30 RB)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (No. 57 WR)
Emilio Nadelman (No. 10 K)

NFL Draft Prospect to Watch: RB D'Ernest Johnson (UDFA grade, per Tony Pauline)

How should I think about this team?: As a legitimate threat to go undefeated in Charlie Strong’s first person.

For years, Charlie Strong was passed over for head coaching jobs, not landing his first until the age of 49. He rebuilt Louisville in short order, then accepted his prize for doing so, taking over at Texas. The Longhorns also needed to be rebuilt, and Strong did just that, recruiting like a mad man to restock a depth chart that had frayed in Mack Brown’s final years. Texas fired Strong right as his project was nearing completion -- not unlike the NBA’s 76ers with Sam Hinkie -- and brought in Tom Herman to bask in the rewards.

Under-appreciated for years, Strong finally found himself on the right side of Lady Luck this offseason, taking over a USF program that will likely be favored in each of its 12 regular season games (and, presumably, the AAC title game). He and OC Sterlin Gilbert, an Art Briles/Dino Babers disciple, inherit an offense that finished in the top-10 of Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings last year.

QB Quinton Flowers returns to run it. If Briles and Babers could construct the perfect quarterback for their system, the dynamic dual-threat Flowers would look awfully similar. RB Marlon Mack declared for the NFL Draft, but RB D’Ernest Johnson is a ready-made replacement. Though Johnson can’t match MackÕs home-run ability, he’s a better receiver. WR Rodney Adams is also now in the NFL, though WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads a deep WR corps that should make up for his absence through sheer depth.

The defense cratered last year after former DC Tom Allen left for Indiana. Most of the personnel returns, so the assumption is that the unit as a whole will improve. Just how much it does will determine USF’s ceiling. With one of the country’s best offenses and a laughably easy schedule (10 of the opponents rank No. 75 or worse, per S&P; Houston’s the highest-listed opponent at No. 49), the Bulls may be headed towards a New Year’s Day bowl game.


Bovada over/under win total: 10
Prediction: OVER
Projected Record: 11-1





Thor Nystrom is a former MLB.com associate reporter whose writing has been honored by Rolling Stone magazine and The Best American Essays series. Say hi to Rotoworld's college football writer on Twitter @thorku.
Email :Thor Nystrom



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